MagWeb.com Poll 2002

Coming Religious War?

by Russ Lockwood
CEO, MagWeb.com

19: Do you expect a world-wide "religious" war between the (generally) Christian Western nations and the (generally) Islamic Middle Eastern nations--like a modern day Crusades?

This question came from a conversation I had with a military intelligence officer. And before the oxymoron jokes set in, consider the rhetoric on both sides of the coin.

Within the next 3 years?
Certainty0.49%
Good Chance2.93%
50-50 Chance7.32%
Small Chance20.00%
Unlikely42.44%
Impossibility14.15%
No Answer12.68%

Within the next 10 years?
Certainty1.95%
Good Chance6.83%
50-50 Chance12.20%
Small Chance24.88%
Unlikely33.17%
Impossibility6.83%
No Answer14.15%

Within the next 25 years?
Certainty5.85%
Good Chance11.22%
50-50 Chance8.78%
Small Chance24.39%
Unlikely24.88%
Impossibility4.39%
No Answer20.49%

MagWeb.com Analysis

This is a question of what the world order, so to speak, will look like and how we will get there.

In the 20th Century, the world shook away from monarchy (WWI), fascism (WWII), and communism (Cold War) -- at least in broad general terms. At the risk of sounding like President Ford at the 1976 presidential debates, pockets of all three still exist, but in terms of worldwide aggressive movements, they are effectively void. Not too many kings and queens are trying to conquer the world lately. Dictatorships certainly still exist, Iraq being a particularly newsworthy example, but the march towards democratic systems continues, albeit in fits and starts. With the demise of the USSR and the application of Eastern European countries to join NATO, half the world's communists are operating under a new system. It may be initially similar to the old system, and it may experience growing pains the way western style democracies did with political and economic underworlds, but the transfer of power from system to individual remains. China, North Korea, Cuba, and Vietnam certainly remain communist, but considering the increasingly capitalistic economic foundations of their population and stronger economic ties to the "West", a more peaceful transition can be expected.

Do we show the same blind allegiance to political institutions that we used to, or with the boom of communications and knowledge, do we question those who demand such? Are religious institutions on the same footing as political ones in our mind's eye? In the 17th Century, Europe fought the 30 Years War combining the religious with the political. In the 11th and 12th Centuries, the Crusades occurred. Will the 21st Century show a repeat on such a scale? These are all sub-questions to consider among this broad question.

As for your responses, of note is the steadily rising rating for "Certainty" and "Good Chance" just as ratings for "Impossibility" and "Unlikely" decrease over time. It seems you're overly pessimistic of our chances of staying out of a modern-day crusade.

War, Warfare, and MagWeb.com

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