18. Hot Spots of the World: Within the next 3 years, what's the likelihood of declared war between: Paired with Question 17, this allows you to interpret the stability of the world in the near term. US vs. Iraq? Certainty 18.05% Good Chance 40.49% 50-50 Chance 20.98% Small Chance 7.32% Unlikely 1.46% Impossibility 0.00% No Answer 11.71% US vs. Iran? Certainty 0.49% Good Chance 6.34% 50-50 Chance 26.83% Small Chance 8.29% Unlikely 38.54% Impossibility 6.83% No Answer 12.68% US vs. Russia? Certainty 0.00% Good Chance 0.00% 50-50 Chance 0.98% Small Chance 6.34% Unlikely 48.78% Impossibility 31.71% No Answer 12.20% US vs. Cuba? Certainty 0.00% Good Chance 0.49% 50-50 Chance 0.49% Small Chance 9.76% Unlikely 55.61% Impossibility 21.46% No Answer 12.20% US vs. China? Certainty 1.46% Good Chance 0.49% 50-50 Chance 2.44% Small Chance 16.10% Unlikely 43.41% Impossibility 23.90% No Answer 12.20% Russia vs. China? Certainty 0.00% Good Chance 0.00% 50-50 Chance 4.39% Small Chance 19.51% Unlikely 49.76% Impossibility 14.15% No Answer 12.20% China vs. Taiwan? Certainty 1.95% Good Chance 5.85% 50-50 Chance 15.61% Small Chance 37.07% Unlikely 22.93% Impossibility 4.49% No Answer 12.20% Pakistan vs. India? Certainty 4.88% Good Chance 31.71% 50-50 Chance 33.17% Small Chance 15.12% Unlikely 2.93% Impossibility 0.00% No Answer 12.20% N. Korea vs. S. Korea? Certainty 0.00% Good Chance 10.24% 50-50 Chance 19.51% Small Chance 33.17% Unlikely 23.90% Impossibility 0.98% No Answer 12.20% Arabs vs. Israel? Certainty 11.22% Good Chance 26.34% 50-50 Chance 19.51% Small Chance 23.41% Unlikely 7.32% Impossibility 0.00% No Answer 12.20% Greece vs. Turkey? Certainty 0.00% Good Chance 0.98% 50-50 Chance 11.71% Small Chance 29.27% Unlikely 38.05% Impossibility 7.80% No Answer 12.20% Peru vs. Ecudor? Certainty 0.49% Good Chance 0.98% 50-50 Chance 12.68% Small Chance 33.66% Unlikely 36.59% Impossibility 3.41% No Answer 12.20% MagWeb.com Analysis Barring a fatal Saddam Hussein heart attack, you're pretty sure we will have war against Iraq. As for Iran, the jury is still out, though tending not to go in. Ironic that 15 years ago we were supporting Hussein against Iran -- the hostages were still in recent memory -- and now we're ready to take him out. A war against Russia is little expected, or about the same as a US-Cuba war, and slightly less than a Sino-US war. However, a Chinese grab against Taiwan seemed more realitistic to you, perhaps while our attention is diverted against Iraq and Afghanistan? The North Korea-South Korea answers were interesting, with a split between an opportunity and not. Considering North Korea has enough problems feeding their people, an invasion of S. Korea seems beyond their capacity, especially because they know it would provoke a massive US response. Recent revelations about abducted Japanese and a nuclear weapons program seem to indicate that they are ready to step down their anti-capitalist posture. They certainly didn't mind the US food aid program. Pakistan and India remain a warm spot. At the time of the poll, the two were facing off over Kashmir with border sniping, although recently both nations have pulled back from attacks. Still, you think this can turn from warm to hot in the near future. Arguably, with suicide bombers, snipers, car bombs, helicopter rocket attacks, patrols, bulldozers, and so on, Israel is already in a state of war. And you are not optimistic that it will get any better. Should the war between the US and Iraq occur, as you believe, the question of whether it will be strictly a US-Iraq fight or whether it will drag in the region remains unclear. I included Greece vs. Turkey just to see if you thought ancient antagonisms would spill over. Not really. As for Peru and Ecuador, it's a surprise so many of you thought a full-fledged war would occur between two relatively peaceful neighbors doing not much in particular outside a minor disagreement. Perhaps we're a little too attuned to conflict? And 12.2% of you had no opinion or didn't want to click on the buttons... War, Warfare, and MagWeb.com Introduction: Survey Says... Members Background Favorite Periods of Military History Connecting to MagWeb.com Demographics: Gender, Age and Computer Type Member Buying Habits (per month) MagWeb.com Specific Feedback: Service Likes and Dislikes Military History Opinions Pivotal Battles and "Time Travel" Best, Worst, and Favorite Commanders in History Current Military Situation Opinions How Do You View the World? Hot Spots: Declaration of War? Coming Religious War? Is the US at War? The Draft in the US? Torture Captured Terrorists? The Future of MagWeb.com MagWeb.com Advertising? MagWeb.com Membership Pricing? 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