by John Gilmer
late '38: 8
The USSR is the single most natural enemy of Germany on political grounds. In the Czech crisis, Stalin was willing to join a war with the allies, though lacking access to Czechoslovakia this would have been ineffective or would have required invasion of Poland and / or Romania. But, the USSR was anxious to avoid fighting Germany alone, and avoided an alliance with Britain as the British were unwilling to enter an alliance committing them to join the war if it was the USSR that was the victim of attack. If Britain had offered a reciprocal, binding, alliance, the Soviet Union would very likely have accepted it. This would have very definitely changed the calculus of the start of the war. (Hitler did not want an immediate war on two fronts.) It was after this arrangement was not forthcoming that the USSR made the pact with Germany. The Soviet exercise of their rights under this pact actually had the effect of driving various neutrals such as Finland and Romania closer to Germany, the only power able to provide some degree of protection. Given an allied pact, the USSR joins the war in 1939. This provides a very reasonable possibility for an alternative start to the war. In response to a German move, either a direct attack on France or a war provoked by German moves into the Balkans or elsewhere, France, Britain, and the Soviet Union all declare war. Germany is protected on the East by Poland, which the Soviets may invade, perhaps along with Romania, in order to bring the war to Germany. Can the Germans defeat France before having to deal with the Russians? In many respects this is a technology update on World War I. Without a pact, if France is attacked, the USSR would stay neutral until an opportune time. Given a neutral stance or a pact, the USSR would be unlikely to initiate a war without good reasons to expect to win. This might occur after the entry of the US, and some sort of lodgment made on the continent, coupled with a perception of German preoccupation away from the Eastern Front. The Germans know this. The uncertainty of when the USSR might join the war, and the expectation that they will, eventually, is a motivation to strike before the Soviets are fully prepared. In game terms, the Germans should not be able to calculate exactly the timing or conditions necessary for Soviet initiation of an attack. Neither should the allies have very much control over this. Another possibility is Soviet intervention in the Balkans without a direct attack on Germany. Since this would necessarily involve Romania, vital to Germany for its Oil, this would force war with Germany without a deliberate attack. Adding Politics to Your WWII Game A Model
Poland Great Britain France, Belgium, Holland Italy USSR USA Spain and Portugal Hungary and Romainia Yugoslavia and Bulgaria Greece and Turkey Finland Norway, Sweden, and Denmark Political Event Table Treaties Back to Table of Contents -- Against the Odds vol. 1 no. 2 Back to Against the Odds List of Issues Back to MagWeb Magazine List © Copyright 2003 by LPS. This article appears in MagWeb.com (Magazine Web) on the Internet World Wide Web. Other articles from military history and related magazines are available at http://www.magweb.com * Buy this back issue or subscribe to Against the Odds direct from LPS. |