by John Gilmer
France late '38: 7
The French were reluctantly brought along by the British to guarantee Poland. But, had the British backed down, the French would have also. The French had a fairly realistic view of their chances for aiding Poland. But they also had a high opinion of their own armed might relative to Germany. France was less concerned about the Soviet Union than Britain, and would be more likely to enter into a treaty with them, had the Germans not preempted that option. France had been more inclined to support Czechoslovakia with Soviet aid a year earlier. Yet, in late 1939 it was the British that led the way into the wider war. The French would be less bothered than the British by German activity in the East, but they too had colonies in Southwest Asia. With a shared border with Germany, and a high opinion of their military prowess, the France would have likely been provoked into a war by a series of German successes and demonstrations of increasing might. Belgium late '38: 6
Belgium is not really a true neutral. They had shown in World War I that they would fight if invaded, and were beneficiaries of the Allied victory. Belgium had been an ally of France, but ended the alliance in 1936, after the Germans reoccupied the Rhineland, perhaps hoping to stay neutral. As World War II approached, and especially after it began, the Belgians consulted with the allies on defense issues. A German attack certainly brings their resistance and alliance with France and Britain. How would they have reacted to French and/or British entry into Belgium is another question. This was certainly a possibility entertained on the allied side, as a way to strike towards Germany's industrial heartland, the Rhur. Germany took the threat seriously: the Seigftied Line continued North opposite the Belgian border. It is impossible to imagine that Allied entry would be opposed by the Belgians. Perhaps there would have been political fallout that would weaken the Belgian army. The most serious consequence, in game terms, is that Germany would no longer pay a political price for entering Belgium, and perhaps would pay a reduced price for entering Holland. What price, given that France and Britain are already at war? Perhaps in sympathy to the Allied cause in the USA. Holland late '38: 5
Holland is often thought of as a neutral grape, waiting to be picked by whichever side found the temptation greatest. It is somewhat more complicated. The Dutch had managed to avoid direct involvement in World War I, and hoped to do so again. It is inconceivable that they would have voluntarily entered the war in Europe at their own initiative. Germany was too powerful on land to become an Ally, and Holland's one remaining major colony, the Dutch East Indies, was hostage to Great Britain, and potentially Japan, should Great Britain be distracted or defeated. This colony received a serious amount of military attention, including most of the Dutch navy. So, the Dutch had good reason to stay out of the war. A German invasion would be resisted, as it was. An Allied entry into neutral Holland is unlikely early in the war, but might be tempting as an inexpensive reentry to the continent later. In case of an allied invasion, the Dutch would probably not offer serious military resistance, and might well join the Allies if they though the balance of power made this reasonable. Adding Politics to Your WWII Game A Model
Poland Great Britain France, Belgium, Holland Italy USSR USA Spain and Portugal Hungary and Romainia Yugoslavia and Bulgaria Greece and Turkey Finland Norway, Sweden, and Denmark Political Event Table Treaties Back to Table of Contents -- Against the Odds vol. 1 no. 2 Back to Against the Odds List of Issues Back to MagWeb Magazine List © Copyright 2003 by LPS. This article appears in MagWeb.com (Magazine Web) on the Internet World Wide Web. Other articles from military history and related magazines are available at http://www.magweb.com * Buy this back issue or subscribe to Against the Odds direct from LPS. |