In a short presentation, Mischo raises the issue of the "soft" aspects of modeling reality. While we can model ships and tanks and planes pretty well, we have a difficult time on the impact of leadership and other societal aspects.

The four main points to consider in the human portion of the equation are: Leadership, Culture, Education, and Militancy. In quantifying the unquantifiable, we must consider the homogenity of the society and the value it places on human life. Not all enemies follow Western civilization precepts.

When plugging in the Leadership factor, consider leaders' vision against the desires of the population, how they have been shaped by domestic politics, and the timing of their previous decisions.

It is difficult to consistantly do the above and get a true picture of a leader's "inner sight," or in other words, what cards to hold or play, and more importantly, when such cards will be played.

More Connections 2000:

Introduction
Lecture: Opening Remarks
Lecture: History of Wargaming
Lecture: Aerospace Power 101
Lecture: Games the Navy Plays: Naval Wargaming Past and Future
Lecture: Sliding Timescales in Published Wargames
Lecture: Wargaming: The End of the Millenium
Lecture: Effects-Based Modelling
Lecture: Global Defense and Wargaming
Lecture: Army Transformation 2000
Lecture: Global Wargame
Lecture: Global Engagement
Lecture: Commercial Wargaming 1999
Lecture: The Human Factor: Modeling Inputs
Lecture: The Modeling of Intangibles
National Security Decision Making Game Recap