North Wind Rain

Preparations for the Next Round

by Mark E. Stille

By 1941, events in Europe had prompted Imperial General Headquarters to reassess the situation in Manchuria.

Jumbo Map: Kwangtung Army Deployment August 1941 (very slow: 397K)

The German invasion of the Soviet Union in June and the instant success of the German Army promised the IJA the prospect of another crack at its primary enemy. It was reasonable to expect that as the disaster grew for the Soviets in European Russia that forces would be withdrawn from the Far East. If the Soviets withdrew 50% of their estimated 30 rifle divisions in the Far East, this, combined with a Japanese build-up, would afford the Kwantung Army a 2-1 advantage.

The Japanese were thinking of a Kwantung Army of 22 divisions -- 14 from the Kwantung Army, 2 from Korea, 2 from North China, and 4 from Japan. At the same time, it was estimated that a Soviet division was only 75% as effective as a Japanese division. There was also the timing of any 1941 campaign to consider. Because of the early winter, which would hamper large-scale operations in Manchuria, matters would have to be concluded by mid-October. An estimated six to eight weeks were needed for offensive operations into the Soviet Maritime Province, so offensive operations would have to begin in early September at the latest.

As the Kwantung Army busily prepared for the long-awaited showdown with the Soviets, no decision was made to actually go to war with the Soviet Union. An Imperial Conference on 2 July did not give a favorable decision for the "go north" faction. However, it was agreed that preparations to attack the Soviets would proceed. In order to meet these requirements, the IJA proposed a tight schedule which called for movement of forces culminating in complete combat readiness by 5 September, hostilities to begin by 10 September, and the initial phase of operations to be completed by 15 October.

Accordingly, reinforcement of the Kwantung Army proceeded quickly. During July and August 1941, the IJA sent another two divisions to Manchuria along with another 300 independent units. All of the Army's divisions were expanded from their peacetime establishments of 12-13,000 men to their wartime strength of 25,000. This build-up was carried out under the codename of Kwantung Army Special Maneuvers.

By mid-September, the Kwantung Army had reached a strength of 710,000 men not including the two divisions in Korea. During the "special maneuvers", training was accelerated and the construction of fortifications speeded up. All this activity was conducted in secrecy so as not to present the Soviets with a picture of war preparations.

As the Kwantung Army achieved numerical superiority over the Soviets, the strength of the "go north" faction was weakening. In mid-July, Foreign Minister Matsuoka, a vocal proponent of going to war with the Soviets was replaced. Even the Army General Staff was not of one mind to attack the Soviets.

Probably the key event in the entire decision-making process was the Soviet refusal to strip the Far East of forces to send to the west. For once, Japanese intelligence did not underestimate its potential enemy and indicated that the withdrawals the Soviets were making were coming mostly from the Baikal region, not from the Maritime Province. Additionally, the Soviets were creating new formations to replace those being transferred, so overall force levels were not dropping significantly.

Even the Kwantung Army did not take the Soviets lightly and indicated that it would be hard-pressed with an attack force of only 22 divisions. It was here that the unspoken effects of the failure against the Soviets in 1939 were felt. In 1941, without the collapse of the Soviet government or the massive withdrawal of forces giving the Kwantung Army an overwhelming advantage, the "go north" faction was not able to gain traction, especially as relations with the Western powers began to worsen.

In a meeting on 9 August, the Army General Staff endorsed the primacy of the need to prepare for war against the U.S. and Britain. At this conference it was decided to accelerate preparations for an advance into the southern regions, aiming for final readiness by late November. The Kwantung Army was to guard against Soviet provocation and continue to prepare for any opportunity to intervene. The build-up in Manchuria would continue and a delegation sent to Kwantung Army headquarters assured them that the decision did not rule out a 1942 attack against the Soviets. The "go south" faction had triumphed.

After 9 August, there was occasional reconsideration given to a northward advance, but this marks the beginning of the decision to go south. The Imperial conference of 1 December confirmed the decision to attack the Western powers a fateful decision for Japan.

The decision to prepare for war against the Allies found the Kwantung Army at its peak strength. The Japanese build-up had not gone unnoticed by the Soviets and tensions were running high. Following the "special maneuvers", the IJA ordered several additional steps in September. The formation of the Kwantung Army Air Force was authorized, the garrison at Port Arthur increased, and the creation of another army (the 20th) in eastern Manchuria was authorized. The map on page 7 presents the disposition of the Kwantung Army.

As preparation for operations in the southern areas proceeded, the Kwantung Army prepared to redeploy units to Hainan, Formosa, and French Indo-China. The first orders for redeployment were received on 18 September and included one division and a number of supporting units.

In November the 5th Air Group and the 10th and 12th Air Brigades were moved south to support operations in the Philippines and Malaya. Though these units were slated to return following the initial phase of hostilities, the Kwantung Army was becoming a backwater force assigned a defensive mission. Offensive operation planning would still be developed to exploit any opportunity which might present itself against the Soviets, but the directions presented to the Kwantung Armys commander was to avoid any outbreak of hostilities against Russia.

North Wind Rain Japanese Invasion of Manchuria

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