Across the DMZ

Scenarios and Sources

by Charles T. Kamps, Jr.


Scenarios

The motivation for a North Korean attack against the South having already been established, under what conditions would it be likely to occur? Aside from a general US withdrawal from Korea/Asia, which would be tantamount to declaring open season, perhaps the best opportunity for North Korea would be in the middle of a large commitment by US forces to another theater, such as the Persian Gulf. In that case there would be little of US reinforcement from the continental United States going to Korea.

As the chance of another Desert Storm would appear fairly remote at this time, a more plausible scenario might be to strike after the US is embroiled in a crisis in Central America. This area has the immediate potential to bring the US into a war situation with the deployment of some units which otherwise would reinforce Korea. In such a case, the contribution of Army and Marine units from the United States would be limited.

There is, of course, always the possibility that the North Koreans will misread the ROK's internal political problems as a sign of manifest weakness and a green light to blitz across the DMZ and present the world with afait accompli. In such a situation, with no distractions, the full weight of US conventional power configured for Korea would be deployed, and the North Koreans would find themselves in a difficult position. Their ally of the last war, China, only committed forces in 1950 because of evident threat to Manchuria posed by UN forces approaching the Yalu River.

In recent years the Chinese have advised caution to the North Koreans, and are generally preoccupied with the internal threats to their regime. In the 1980s the Soviets became closer to the North Koreans, to the point of obtaining naval basing rights in several ports. The collapse of the Soviet Union, however, has left no northern neighbor in position to support the Pyongyang regime.

Sources

Books, Manuals and Reports

Alexander, Bevin. Korea, The First War We Lost. New York: Hippocrene Books, 1986.
Canzona, Nicholas A. US Marine Operations in Korea 1950-53 Vol. 1. Washington, DC: HQ USMC, 1954.
Combined Intelligence Center - Korea. Identification Handbook of Weapons, Vehicles and Equipment Used by or Available to the Army of North Korea. APO SF 96301: HQ UNC/ USFK/EUSA U-2 CIC-K), April 1976.
Congressional Budget Office. Force Planning and Budgetary Implications of U.S. Withdrawal from Korea. Washington, DC: Congress of the United States, May 1978.
Congressional Budget Office. Planning U.S. General Purpose Forces: Forces Related to Asia. Washington, DC: Congress of the United States, June 1977.
Congressional Budget Office. U.S. Airlift Forces: Enhancement Alternatives for NATO and Non-NATO Contingencies. Washington DC: Congress of the United States, April 1979.
Department of the Army. DA Pam 550-41 Area Handbook for South Korea Washington, DC: Headquarters, Department of the Army, 1975.
Department of the Army. DA Pam 550-81 North Korea. A Country Study. Washington, DC: Headquarters, Department of the Army, 1981.
Department of the Army. FM 34-71 Opposing Force Training Module North Korean Military Forces. Washington, DC: Headquarters, Department of the Army, 5 Feb. 1982.
Thomas, Nigel and Peter Abbott. The Korean War 1950-1953. London: Osprey Publishing, 1986.

Articles:
Anderson, Jack. "Korea Quandry: North Has Advantage." Washington Post, 27 January 1981.
Bermudez, Joseph S., Jr. "North Korean Marines." Marine Corps Gazette, January 1987.
Bermudez, Joseph S., Jr. 'North Korea's Light Infantry Brigades." Jane's Defence Weekly, 15 November 1986.
Bermudez, Joseph S., Jr. "The Tank Battalion of the North Korean People's Army." Armor, November-December 1986.
Bocklett, Richard. "North and South Korea." International Combat Arms, May 1986.
Carney, Larry. "Top Commander in Korea Favors Battalion Rotation." Army Times, March 10, 1986.
Choi, Young. "The North Korean Military Buildup and its Impact on North Korean Military Strategy in the 1980's." Asian Survey, Vol. XXV, No. 3, March 1985.
"Closer Links between North Korea and the Soviet Union." International Defense Review, 11 / 1986.
Constantine, Gus. "Imbalance in Arms Endangers S. Korea."Washingtion Times, 11 May 1987.
Correll, John T. "Allied Airpower at the Fighting Fronts." Air Force, August 1986.
Coyne, James P. "PACAFs Global Perspective." Air Force, Aug. 1985.
Cushman, LTG John H., USA (Ret). "South Korea: The ROK/ US Partnership for Peace." Pacific Defence Reporter, May 198-4.
Davis, CPT David W. "Warring with the Warriors." Field Artillery Journal, July-August 1984.
Diehl, MAJ William J., Jr. "2nd Infantry Division." Infantry, November-December 1978.
Doyle, LTC J. J. and MAJ P. D. Wisniewski, USMC. "Team Spirit 86: An Update." Marine Corps Gazette, August 1986.
Ebata, Kensuke. "North Korea Receives Ten More MiG- 23 Floggers." Jane's Defence Weekly, 17 August 1985.
"'Gray Lady' Celebrates 25 Years." Jane's Defence Weekly, 8 November 1986.
Hans, CPT Thomas F. "Team Spirit 84: Fit to Fight." U.S. Army Aviation Digest, September 1984.
Harris, MAJ J. D., Queen's Dragoon Guards. "Under the Land of Morning Calm." British Army Review, No. 54, December 1976.
Howarth, Mike. 'Defending the Republic of Korea." International Defense Review, 2/1986.
Isby, David C. "Weapons and Tactics of the Republic of Korea Army." Jane's Defense Review, Vol. 3, No. 1, 1982.
Jacobs, Gordon. "North Korea: Strong Enough to Attempt a Military Solution." Pacific Defence Reporter, May 1983.
Jacobs, Gordon. "USSR, N. Korea: New Relations." Jane's Defence Weekly, 29 March 1986.
Koropey, LTC Oleh B. "Armor Operations and Training In Korea." Armor, November-December 1986.
Leuer, MG Kenneth C., USA. "Team Spirit 84: An Army Aviation Overview." U.S. Army Aviation Digest, August 1984.
Marks, Thomas A. "North and South Korean OB." Military Intelligence, October-December 1981.
Metzler, John J. "The US Fifth Air Force in Japan." Armed Forces, May 1985.
Miller, Marshall Lee. "Notes from the Underground: The Communists' Secret Tunnels." Armed Forces journal International, Sept. 1986.
"Misawa's First F-16 Squadron." Jane's Defence Weekly, 5 October 1985.
Morger, MAJ Randal E. USAF. "Partners on the Peninsula." Air Force, October 1986.
Neilan, Edward. "South Korea Faces Constant Threat of Northern Invasion." Washington Times, May 6,1987.
"N. Korean Offensive." Washington Times, 3 July 1986.
"North Korean Chemical Weapons." Jane's Defence Weekly, 6 December 1986.
"100 KIFVs Delivered to Korean Army." Jane's Defence Weekly, 26 July 1986.
Roberts, CPT Helmut P. USA. "Air Defense Korean Style." Air Defense Artillery Fall 1986.
Ropelewski, Robert R. and William B. Scott. "Special Reports: U.S. Pacific Air Forces Modernization." Aviation Week & Space Technology, February 7,1983.
Schernmer, Benjamin F. "North Korea Buries its Aircraft, Guns, ... 11 Armed Forces Journal International, August 1984.
"S. Korea F-16s Operational" Jane's Defence Weekly, 9 August 1986.
Smith, COL P. J., Jr., USMC. "Team Spirit 84 Reviewed." Marine Corps Gazette, August 1986.
Sneider, Daniel. "Okinawa Has Strategic Military Importance." Air Force Times, 6 April 1987.
"Stinger Missiles Equip USAF Bases." Jane's Defence Weekly, 8 June 1985.
"Target Simulators Expected to Help 2d Division Tankers." Army Times, 6 January 1986.
"Team Spirit '84 in South Korea to Involve 60,000 U.S. Troops." Army Times, January 16,1984.
Till, Dr. Geoffrey. "Naval Power in the Pacific - The US Seventh Fleet." Armed Forces, July 1985.
"The 25th Tactical Fighter Squadron. . ." Air Force, August 1986, p.35.
Urban, Mark L. "The North Korean People's Army." International Defense Review, 7/1983.
"USAF Increases Strength in Japan." Jane's Defence Weekly, 31 January 1987.
Warner, Denis. "Make a Gesture, Chinese Say." Pacific Defense Reporter, October 1986.
"World's Air Forces." Flight International, 29 November 1986.
Wellenjohn, Chuck. "Pusan Moves 'em Out." Translog, May 1986.
Yim, Dr. Young Soon. "North Korean Military Doctrine." International Security Review, Summer 1982.

Miscellaneous Sources:
Balkoski, Joseph M. The Korean War, June 1950 - May 1951. New York: Victory Games, 1986.
Bermudez, Joseph S., Jr. "North Korean People's Army: Combined Arms Brigades." Unpublished Paper, 3//1/86.
Defense Mapping Agency Aerospace Center. Map ONC G- 10. Scale 1:1,000,000. St. Louis: Defense Mapping Agency, 1972, revised January 1984.
Defense Mapping Agency Aerospace Center. Map TPC G- 10B. Scale 1:500,000. St. Louis: Defense Mapping Agency, March 1962, revised October 1982.
Marret, CPT James, USA. "The Republic of Korea Army: The 'Light' Light Infantry Division." US Defense Attache Office, Seoul, 11 August 1986.
Ministry of Defense, Republic of Korea. Briefing Extract: "ROK Reserve System." May 1986.
National Georgraphical Institute. Tourist Map of Korea, Scale 1:600,000. Seoul: Korea National Tourism Corp., 27 Sept. 1982.
75th USA Maneuver Area Command. Korean Scenario: Master Events Allied Scenario. Houston, Tx: 75th Maneuver Area Command, 25 March 1986.
Simpson, MAJ James M. "Wartime Interoperability Problems Posed by Differences in South Korean and United States Army Tactics." Thesis for US Army Command & General Staff College, Fort Leavenworth, KS, 1980.

Across the DMZ The Next War in Korea

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