There has been a glut of books about military contingencies. This hoary genre was at its height during the build-up to the First World War between 1870 and 1914. It has made a come-back over the past 20 years. This form of military fiction, more accurately quasi-fiction, narrates the shape of possible wars to come or describes wars that never were, but might have happened. In either case, the tale is told as if the hostilities had in fact already transpired. I will briefly discuss some of the most recent examples, one of each type, most notably Caspar Weinberger and Peter Schweizer's The Next War and Robert Conroy's 1901, mentioning in passing some classic (early 1900s to about 1939) and pre-revival (circa 1945-60) representatives to round out the picture.
It's necessary to clarify what our subject is NOT. We won't be discussing the so-called techno-thriller vogue except to differentiate that craze. Neither do we deal with science fiction in the sense of space opera and melees in distant galaxies or on the Earth of centuries hence though some consider our theme as a sub-class of sci fi.
The Next War, published in late 1996, is obviously in the war forecast or war warning class. Essentially a set of five scenarios for possible conflicts, such as might be scripted for an official DOD War Game, the book illustrates a number of characteristics of this sub-set. The first, and most noticeable since it's in the introduction, is the "message". As might be expected from a former Secretary of Defense who arranged the defense build-up, especially Star Wars, that broke the Soviet's back, there's a warning that the Clinton draw-down is leaving this nation unprepared to fight some well-armed and tough adversaries who have come out of the woodwork in the wake of the Soviet demise. Don't suppose we'll have piddling little brush fires to extinguish these Bad Boys are bristling with nukes, sophisticated delivery systems and sigint countermeasures galore.
Besides the cutbacks in vital systems, the DOD is engaged in environmental, drug enforcement and social work activities that are irrelevant and disruptive of the effort to defend the nation. In order to avoid confusion, as the authors note, they have chosen to outline five scenarios that happen in isolation. But they remind the reader that the Pentagon hopes to be able to fight two regional conflicts at once.
First, they emphasize that these are academic planning exercises and not prophesies. They even acknowledge that some or all of the scenarios may seem unlikely; however, they are marginally conceivable, if you cut them some slack. I do find the Japanese resort to force as an extension of its trade war a bit of a stretch, although there is certainly a core of militants in that country that would like to be more assertive vis a vis the United States. Tom Clancy did this in Debt of Honor. Globe-watchers fundamentally disregarded the strategic reveries of 1930's Japanese jingoists much to horror of their Asian and Pacific quarry.
Likewise, the opening of hostilities over the northward Mexican hemorrhage of unemployables seems a bit far-fetched, but the Mexican-American tensions over the issue are already in place and a more pugnacious Mexican government with the right international backing could bring push to shove. The others, a Chinese-North Korean offensive, an Iranian gambit in the Middle East and a Russian warlord reanimating the Empire, are easier to swallow. Next, the authors warn you not to expect an action-packed novel. The writing is not really "literary" but neither is it straight-up essay. It's a hybrid. The book is a series of dramatized after-action reports on Pentagon style war games or as the Brits used to call them TEWT, or Tactical Exercises Without Troops. In this case, you might call them Grand Strategical and Operational Level Exercises Without Troops. The use of fictional vignettes and personalities is akin to combat journalism. Fictional characters are utilized merely "to outline the type of tough strategic decisions that leaders are likely to wrestle with in the face of war" and to " demonstrate the human and psychological dimensions of conflict." There is no detailed character development as would be found in an unadulterated novel. Thus when anti-military book critics carp about "wooden characters" and stereotypes, they are unfairly holding the hypothetical war tale to standards applicable to bona fide fiction. Here I'm reminded of the book reviewer for Time Magazine who not only castigated General John Hackett and his committee's The Third World War, August 1985 (1978) and it's 1982 supplement for shallow characterization, but was outraged that the authors dared to contemplate a limited use of nuclear weapons. Further, he decried the amount of time and effort that went into describing the details of weapons systems, along with their acronyms. The reviewer had consistently demonstrated his animosity to everything in uniform. It's no wonder that he missed the whole point of the exercise, it's pseudo-documentary NOT literary.
Let's put this phenomenon in context. In 1966, science fiction critic I. Clarke's authoritative study of future war fiction, Voices Prophesying War, declared the demise of the genre. According to Clarke, the nuclear standoff had rendered accounts of protracted combat irrelevant. Clarke discerned that the literature had been amalgamated into the Cold War adventure tale featuring deadly undercover pursuit and treachery the 1960' s version of today's techno-thriller. In these stories, open combat was merely an offstage presence, hanging in the balance should the covert operative's perilous ruse misfire. In the rare instances where a full-scale battle was described, it was ancillary to the espionage or counter-terrorist encounters.
In his 1994 second edition, Clarke noted a brief resurgence of the species in the 1980s and once again marked it's expiration. Generally, he has done well in delineating the classic epoch of this genre, but seems to lose his way when he gets to recent manifestations, witness his checklist of examples. One author who I informed was included was genuinely surprised. Her story was set in the wake of a nuclear war but in no way was concerned with the war nor did it have much to do with its after-effects - it was a fantasy vampire tale.
"And so it has continued into the 1990s," Clarke wrote, "one set of possibilities after another, until the rapid changes throughout the Warsaw Pact countries and the sudden disappearance of the Soviet Union annulled the license to describe the great war-to-come. These recent changes do not allow any rousing last pages to this history of future wars. The trumpeter now has to sound a Last Post over the hundreds of stories that related every conceivable phase in the Forty-Year Confrontation. For the first time in the course of this fiction, there are reports of vanishing plots, shrinking markets, and authors in search of new material."
Like the earlier obituary, the second death notice has proven unfounded. In his emphasis on the "next great war", Clarke disregarded the menace of the numerous brush fires sparked by the post-Cold War World Disorder. Perhaps the handwriting on the wall was still hazy when his update went to press. These ethnic tribal feuds have provoked a series of "peacekeeping" operations of uncertain effect and latitude. We have seen how the disintegration of national authority spontaneously escalates into random three-cornered regional matches. They appear horrifying on CNN, but are essentially minor conflicts until and unless regional sponsors jump in and great caution has been shown thus far by bordering states. There has been nothing similar to the Greco-Turkish interventions in Cyprus. The worldwide sense of impotence, detached cynicism and mild apprehension recalls the original Balkan Wars of 1912-13.
Of course the classic NATO-WARPAC superpower clash is obsolete. It is unlikely that the ethnic cleansing campaigns could intensify into world war counterparts, even with ex-Soviet Russia seething over U.S. intervention at its doorstep. Nonetheless, continual headlines out of Sarajevo, a host of African and Middle Eastern nations and "south of the border" provide constant grist for the future war historian's mill. In fact, the region occupied by the former Congo is literally coming apart dissolving into constantly migrating refugee bands at the mercy of purposeless mobs of heavily armed teenage thugs.
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© Copyright 1997 by David W. Tschanz.
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