What if...Next Wars

Imaginary Wars and Outcomes

by Jim Bloom, Silver Spring, Maryland

Chroniclers of imaginary wars can not only draw upon the host of simmering subnational conflicts; a rich lode of might-have-been past wars awaits their attention. Creative historians ring changes on wars that did happen and bring about those that almost happened. What if the 1940 Wehrmacht had activated its shelved Sea Lion plan to invade England? What if England and France had drawn the line at the Munich parley in 1938, arousing Hitler to save face by prematurely triggering his Case Green Czech invasion option

A search of recent (1990s) releases suggests that imaginary warfare continues to be a popular theme. A few are novelized near-history — a familiar mode. The adventure novel narrative mode fuses imperceptibly into the techno-thriller. The latter, for anyone not familiar, is a development of the spy novel which emphasize sophisticated gimmickry, including high-intensity combat weapon systems. However, readers interested in alternate history are encountering more and more unadorned mock histories — or novels where private impressions and situations are totally eclipsed by the fabrication of a feasible wargame.

It is not a new phenomena. During the first few years of the Great War, before Wilson's decision to intervene, American readers were regaled by lurid tales of a German invasion of the continental United States. These were not simply spinoffs from the newborn science fiction vogue. The Wellesian visions focused more on the effects of fantastic new weapons than on geopolitical tendencies. The future war tales were interested more in impending catastrophe than convulsions in remote millennia or galaxies.

By and large, these lurid prophecies depicted the Kaiser's minions razing New York, Boston and the tranquil villages of New England. They were invariably inspired by the Preparedness Movement. The readiness clique was composed of the Congressional and military service lobbyists who sincerely feared that Germany was winning the European conflict. They were convinced that the Kaiser's warlords were preparing to follow up the inevitable German victory by projecting power into the impudently sacrosanct Western Hemisphere. Others were conniving cynics who simply played on popular delusions in order to stuff the larders of their military-industrial constituencies.

With the American participation in April, 1917, the imaginary battles on this side of the Atlantic were replaced by somber war reports about genuine horrors "Over There." These sort of alternate histories have an enduring appeal to recreational wargamers and it is interesting to contemplate the Battles of Danbury, Connecticut and White Plains, New York, and the naval encounter off St. Augustine, Florida. All of these engagements are said to have taken place in 1901 between the forces of the United States and Imperial Germany! These obscure clashes have been vividly and meticulously recorded for posterity, albeit not in any document that one might credibly cite, but in a 1995 "alternate historical" work of fiction titled 1901: A Novel, written by Robert Conroy.

1901

The book marks a welcome reappearance of an intellectual parlor game that probably has alienated at least as many as it has attracted. This meticulously researched, albeit speculative, exercise was published by Presidio Press, also known for its military history inventory, in April, 1995. The author is a "semiretired college business and economics teacher living in Warren, Michigan." It's quite polished for a first novel. His fascination with late 19th and early 20th world military affairs is apparent in every page.

Conroy reconstructs a pivotal era of international history. The book starts with the assumption that the US-German confrontation in Manila Bay during the Spanish-American War escalates into full-blown hostilities — the push and shove over Samoa and Venezuela, are part of the pattern of German moves into new U.S. preserves, including the territories wrested from Spain. A German expeditionary force invades the U.S. in 1901 to enforce German claims to the possessions that the U.S. captured in the Spanish-American War.

Germany, looking for slice of the imperial pie, pressures the United States to sell it some of the territories taken from Spain. This demand entails, Guam, Cuba, Puerto Rico and the Phillipines. Naturally President William McKinley summarily rejects the tyrannical demand, outraging the overbearing German military and foreign policy elite.

The Kaiser and his cabinet simply can't understand why the upstart United States would not defer to the amply demonstrated military prowess of Germany. The next thing you know, the irritated Kaiser escalates his demands from sale to outright cession of the lands to Germany, brandishing the newly expanded Kaisermarine. Push comes to shove and Germany invades Long Island in a maneuver that simulates one of a series of actual on-the-shelf plans drafted by German staff academies in the 1890s. The novel is obviously based on a significant insight into the world's military balance of power almost a century ago. Conroy exercises an informed imagination to illustrate some cherished notion about his historical characters. The German High Command believes that American democratic politics is so fragile that the leaders, pressured by the panicked mobs they heed rather than lead, will yield the territories once the landing party secures a strip of Long Island and lobs shells onto Wall Street and Broadway.

After the enemy establishes a beachhead on Long Island and captures and burns Manhattan and Brooklyn, the woefully unprepared American people authorize a long bloody struggle, triggering a magnitude of devastation that no foreign power would have ever thought possible to inflict upon the American mainland. The landings on Long Island find the U.S. Army in disarray after being demobilized following the Cuban campaign. The balance of troops are in the Philippines, tied down in the costly Moro campaign. McKinley, under great duress, dies of a heart attack early on. The new president, Theodore Roosevelt, is resolved not to negotiate with the barbarians and to make them pay dearly. He inaugurates an extensive program to assemble and prepare a fighting force to resist the reputedly omnipotent German war machine. This it does with grim perseverance through a long spell of disheartening anguish leading up to the climactic Battle of Danbury.

The writing is not great literature, but it's adequate to the task. Those interested in the unfolding war game — and this is the principal readership — will have no trouble sticking with the tale, for the campaign illustrates with great clarity the bridge between the Civil War and the Great War. The yarn is likely to please both military history and alternative history buffs. Destiny puts a young army major, Patrick Mahan, (a cousin to the renowned naval theorist) in an auspicious position at this crucial juncture. The young Mahan just happens to be one of the Army's premier experts on the German military. He gets McKinley's ear and achieves rapid promotion to brigadier general as the indispensable man on the German military. He also manages to get a field command and takes part in all the war's crucial engagements.

Through Mahan's eyes we discern many captivating personalities: Black officers in a special unit display their dignity and spunk in an adverse racial climate; a tormented, but resilient, Theodore Roosevelt. Former Confederate Lieutenant General James Longstreet, in recognition of his superior military instincts, though disparaged by his old comrades in arms, is appointed commanding general of the U.S. Army. Longstreet's return from retirement and thrust into sudden prominence incorporates much of the revisionist defense of Longstreet as one of the few Confederate commanders who really understood modern war.

Also playing roles are Joe Wheeler and Arthur MacArthur, whose young, newly commissioned son, Douglas is called up before his West Point class is due to graduate. Doug gets an offstage role, heading an Amerind regiment of scouts and commandos. MacArthur Senior continues his feud with Joe Wheeler, held over from the Phillippines campaign; The author combined an interest in the US military of the Progressive Era with his background in economics. The depth of research is evident. I have to say that any scheme for a viable landing ( as opposed to harassing raids, which could be done by naval gunfire in any event) had always seemed far-fetched to me. But Conroy pulls it off as well as anyone might have. Most importantly, he doesn't simply set up a deus ex machina to get his story going. The author's roles for the real personages hew close to their personalities as we understand them; he delineates plausible deportment for each in reaction to the invented circumstances.

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© Copyright 1996 by David W. Tschanz.
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