An interesting postulation occurs if we stop counting beans and start looking at effects. It may be hell to model, but may provide better analysis.

For example, don't count the number of dead tanks, but the loss of combat effectiveness. Don't tally a blown power plant when you can claim command center paralysis. It's not a destroyed oil refinery, but fewer air sorties and decreased tank mobility.

The trick is in the analysis as well as the link between results and effects.

More Connections 2000:

Introduction
Lecture: Opening Remarks
Lecture: History of Wargaming
Lecture: Aerospace Power 101
Lecture: Games the Navy Plays: Naval Wargaming Past and Future
Lecture: Sliding Timescales in Published Wargames
Lecture: Wargaming: The End of the Millenium
Lecture: Effects-Based Modelling
Lecture: Global Defense and Wargaming
Lecture: Army Transformation 2000
Lecture: Global Wargame
Lecture: Global Engagement
Lecture: Commercial Wargaming 1999
Lecture: The Human Factor: Modeling Inputs
Lecture: The Modeling of Intangibles
National Security Decision Making Game Recap

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