Recently a number of signs and portents have converged indicating trouble for the historical miniature gaming hobby and its industrial base. Back in March some of these signs and portents were discussed in a research paper presented at the GAMA Trade Show in Las Vegas. The authors were Heather Barnhorst, Douglas Carey, and William Winski. I believe that they have some connection with Game Figures Incorporated which among other things produces MINIFIGS. I am trying to locate an original of this research paper, but Major Pete Panzeri has presented his take on it over the internet. Pete’s take off is in a paper called THE BEST DEFENSE IS ALWAYS WHAT? With input from Mark Zaslavsky and James Curtis.
Chinese Communist 1/32nd Boxers discussing whose harmonious fists are most righteous. Is this the wave of the future?
The moral of the story seems to be that HM gaming is shrinking and graying, perhaps absolutely but certainly in proportion to the “alternative gaming” hobbies. Pete refers to his original disbelief, but eventual at least partial agreement. Some of the omens include HISTORICON having shrunk approximately 15% since 1998, while ORIGINS has grown from approximately the size of HISTORICON in 1995 to 360% the size in 2002. I would cite 2003 figures, but I don’t have them for ORIGINS. It should be noted that GENCON in Indianapolis seems to be two or three times larger than ORIGINS. Of course, at the time he wrote, Pete didn’t know all the important stats, for example that RECON 04 declined about 9% from RECON 03.
I would stress that some of the numbers are pretty soft and have to be looked at in context. ORIGINS 95 was reported to have lost a lot of money, but in spite of his close connections with the ORIGINS folks, Pete didn’t have solid information on it. He thinks attendance was below 5,000, while HISTORICON 95 had climbed to 2,890, followed by 3,100 in 96, and around 3,000 in 97, reaching a record 3,660 in 98. Pete also cites combined GENCON and ORIGINS numbers of 35,000 compared to HISTORICON numbers of 3,500 plus (actually 3,660) at the 1998 peak. To make themselves look better, the HMGS EAST leadership has been comparing combined HISTORICON, COLDWARS, and FALL IN! attendance trends. But for all that it does seem that, as Pete quotes Orest Sywnstun saying “..the hobby industry grew as a result of the economic downturn. Apparently we (Historicals) did not.”
Pete also refers to Old Glory reporting the last 18 months as their worst ever, and the folks at GFI and Stone Mountain haven’t been terribly enthusiastic about the business cycles of late. Come to think of it, EB and HPC, the largest HM manufacturing concerns in both Ozello and Crisfield haven’t been making a lot of money either. In addition, historical game shops are dropping like flies. Old Glory reported a loss of 20% of the already rare shops they distributed to. I can vouch for the fact that an acquaintance and sometime customer at the HQ of Hobbytown USA sent me a list of 150 or so of their shops when I was putting together my ALMANAC over a year ago. Of those shops only 6 were cited as stocking historicals.
In parallel to and perhaps influencing this decline are international events driven by Globalization. The process of relocating our industrial base to Communist China has sparked a building boom in that country. Moreover, the Chinese now drive and otherwise use petroleum products far more than they have in the past. These developments have driven up the cost of tin and gasoline. As an example, my casting alloy, which is 36% tin, has increased in price approximately 170% between the last two orders. The reported increase for GFI is similar, and since the entire increase is driven by tin, those companies promising lead free pewter will experience even greater cost increases. Actually however, my two little companies greatest single cost category consists of mileage to conventions. This is probably not common in the industry. But then I’m a convention junkie. Even so, the pump price portion of the IRS mileage computation will probably jump for 2004. During the invasion of Iraq last year the prices locally were down around $1.369, but today the same station was offering $1.999, an increase of 46%. This probably will not be much of a cost driver for most companies, but it may put a damper on convention attendance. Because many historical miniature gamers haul lots of toys to shows (and hopefully more coming home) private and overloaded autos are the norm.
So the sky is falling right? Well, not exactly.
The cost of tin, which for a while was going up daily, seems to have stabilized. I don’t have any insider knowledge of the metals trade. However, Tom Dye of GFI thinks it is probably due to formerly marginal mining operations all over the world becoming profitable and therefore opening at the new prices. There will be price increases. The increased cost of tin will be the cause, not an excuse dreamed up by OG and others to mask their greed. But tin is only one component of most casting alloys, and casting alloys are only one element driving the cost of toy soldiers. You will be paying a little more. But most of you will still be able to buy more figures than you can paint.
As for the relative and absolute decline in hobby shops and convention attendance, that is a problem. I’m not concerned about the proportion of HM versus dark side gamers. But the absolute falling off in attendance noted at EAST conventions since 1998, and the loss of hobby shops that stock historicals is a bad thing. There has been some upturn for EAST, and last year (alas not this year) was HMGS SOUTH’s best ever for attendance. The latter may or may not have been influenced by gasoline prices.
On the other hand, some of the stats on historical stockists are misleading. My friend at Hobbytown only listed 6 shops stocking historicals. But they did not include the Hobbytown shop in Frederick MD where three of our grandchildren live. I’ve been to that shop which does stock Games Workshop stuff. But it also stocks 1/72nd and larger plastic military models and figures, as well as larger 54mm historical miniatures some of which have been painted by Chinese Communist Political Prisoners. While probably a majority of game shops, even those that display our posters for us, may not stock historicals, some will order them, and I suspect that some actually stock the plastic historicals.
Which brings up another puzzle. There is a yahoo group to which I subscribed some time ago called simply DBLCHM. I have no idea what those cryptic initials stand for. However, the 460 or so members are all 1/72nd plastic historical gamers. They claim that this is the golden age of the 20mm plastic figure. They must be right as they are constantly discussing new product coming on the market. Traditionally plastics require as much if not more in design costs, and a larger investment in production equipment than white metal casting. The lower cost of the material (plastic versus lead) requires longer production runs to offset the investment. Logically there have to be an awful lot of little plastic men being pushed around on tabletops somewhere. But in my compulsive junketing to HM conventions I rarely see them. In fact, I see more 1/32nd plastic games than 1/72nd. Tom Panetta and Richard Huntington are the only guys I see doing 1/72nd plastics at our conventions.
Pete’s solution, predictably, is for Game Masters (GM) to promote more positive gaming experiences, particularly at mixed conventions. He is the initiator of the GM Support Network (GMSN) and has done an incredible job with the Historicals at Origins Team (HOT.) Since he became involved in 1997 there has been at least a 300% increase in historical events at ORIGINS. However, as I’ve pointed out, the vast increase in positive historical gaming experiences at ORIGINS coincides with the reported relative and possibly absolute decline in HM gaming activity overall. I’m sure that presenting historicals at mixed gaming events and in hobby shops is all for the good. But it apparently hasn’t solved the problem.
Frankly, I think my old ALMANAC idea with a history of the hobby, a listing of clubs, shops, manufacturers, HMGS chapters and equivalents would be a big help. But it is a lot of work and unless heavily supported by advertising would cost a bundle.
I’d like to get those plastic guys involved with us. There have to be a bunch of them somewhere. Even though I’m a lead monger, I think it would be a great thing. I can’t see them as a threat to the lead market. Some will always prefer plastics. But the limited upfront expenses are a great recruiting aid. And once the new people realize that most of the effort and expense is in the painting, the cost advantage of plastic will lose a lot of its hold. But where are they and how can we reach them?
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