But this view was not left to stand alone; it was enforced by an inducement. "I can only say, that if, in the event of a distribution of the Ottoman succession, upon the fall of the Empire, you should take possession of Egypt, I shall have no objection to offer. I would say the same thing of Candia: that island might suit you and I do not know why it should not become an English possession."

The voice which uttered this was the voice of the one potentate who had an interest in precipitating the catastrophe, and who was then taking such a course as might immediately lead to it. Vain indeed the effort to spread his net in the sight of those whom he had thus himself enlightened. But it seems likely-indeed there is no other explanation-that he had forgotten, or dropped out of sight, this complete showing of his hand.

As was natural in an autocrat whose faculty for rule lay in the strength of his will, not of his judgment, he had accustomed himself to confound what he desired with what he believed in ; and absorbed for the moment in his parade of sympathy with the Christians in Turkey, he had come to consider this as his true motive, and expected others to adopt that view also. So complete was this illusion, that it was long before he had begun to realise the possibility of being opposed by England.

At first he had assumed her toleration, if not her concurrence, to be certain. And even when he was at war with Turkey, and the fleets had been despatched to the Bosphorus, he sent an autograph letter to the Queen, expressing surprise that there should be any misunderstanding between the Queen's Government and his own as to the affairs of Turkey, and appealing to Her Majesty's "good faith" and "wisdom " to decide between them.

Thus it is evident that it was Russia that had been the first Power to "drift" into war, and this was owing to the false view taken by the Czar. Starting with the belief that Turkey would be left unsupported, he had gone on to assume that he would, by the display of his forces, coerce her into compliance with the measure which would give him the means of, at any time, quarrelling with and crushing her, that England would acquiesce, and that, if she did, he might disregard the other Powers; and thus he had been led into a position from which he could not recede without war.

And the delusion under which he took these steps contains one of the important lessons that render history of value as a guide and a warning. There is a general concurrence that he confided in the belief that England was entirely absorbed in the pursuit of wealth, through manufactures and commerce, and could no longer be induced to fight for a principle, a sentiment, or an ally. Even after Lord Aberdeen had been impelled to take action directly tending to war, the Czar still believed that a community which made the exaltation and worship of trade the mainspring of its policy, and which listened complacently to the denunciation of war as an unmixed evil, would never be roused into armed resistance to his projects.

How far a more determined tone on the part of our Ministry, at an early stage of his course of aggression, would have effectually checked it, may be matter of speculation. But there can be no doubt, judging from his own language and his own acts, that his not unreasonable persuasion of the degeneracy of our national character was a main element in producing the state of mind which rendered him so fatally domineering and precipitate in the pursuit of his ends, and so regardless of the decencies of public law.

At the time of Menschikoff's mission, Lord Stratford, having resigned his post, was in England. But the difficulties which that mission was creating seemed again to demand his commanding influence on the spot, and he had been desired to resume his functions. The instructions given to him, conceived in a spirit of conciliation to Russia, in a matter which, on the surface, did not vitally concern us, were to admonish the Porte to show increased consideration for its Christian subjects. But, at the same time, remembering what lay under the surface, the Government empowered him, in case of imminent danger to Turkey, to request the Commander of our Mediterranean Squadron, then lying at Malta, to hold it in readiness to move, though he was not to call it up without orders from the Home Government.

But when Menschikoff, on the removal of his first grievance, put forth his other and more dangerous claim, the British Government perceived that it could no longer depend in any degree on the good faith of the Czar. At the end of May 1853, when Menschikoff departed from Constantinople, breathing war, Lord Clarendon instructed Lord Stratford that it was indispensable to take measures for the protection of the Sultan, and to aid him by force, if necessary, in repelling an attack upon his territory, and in defence of the independence of Turkey, which England, he declared, "was bound to maintain."

At the same time, in a despatch to St Petersburgh, he required to be informed what object the Czar had in view, "and in what manner, and to what extent, the dominions of the Sultan, and the tranquillity of Europe were threatened?"

A few days afterwards the Allied squadrons moved up the Mediterranean, and anchored in the neighbourhood of the Dardanelles, which the Sultan was bound by treaty to keep closed to the fleets of other Powers so long as Turkey was at peace.

On the 22d October, the day before Turkey declared war, the fleets entered the Dardanelles. The Ambassadors had been instructed to call them up to Constantinople, "for the security of British and French interests, and, if necessary, for the protection of the Sultan." The step was precipitated by the apprehension of fanatical disturbances in the Turkish capital.

It has been generally assumed that the circumstances under which the French Empire had recently come into existence demanded that its chief should make war on somebody, in order to divert attention from the origin of his power, and to give employment to an army which might otherwise become dangerous. It may be readily granted that it was most expedient, both for him and his people, to make his influence immediately felt. But that, in allying himself with England on the Eastern question, he was seizing on an opportunity for war is only a surmise for which it would be difficult to adduce proof.

It was inevitable that he should throw his weight into the question, and he could hardly hesitate in his choice of a side. It was scarcely possible for the champion of the Latin Church in the East, who had just stood forth in defence of its claim, to abet the Czar in his demand for the protectorate of the Christian subjects of the Porte. Moreover, Nicholas, in his arrogant way, had given just offence both to Louis Napoleon and the French people by refusing to address him, as all other reigning potentates did, as "Mon Fre're;" as if he, the choice of the French people, were not entitled to be admitted to the brotherhood of sovereigns; which was one of those gratuitous and unprofitable affronts which wise men are careful not to offer.

On the other hand, the advantage was obvious of arraying himself by the side of, instead of against, the great Sea- Power his neighbour; while as for individual predilections he had acquired, in his long residence in England, a hearty esteem for our institutions and our people, and the kindnesses which he had received as an exile were always cordially acknowledged by him as a sovereign. But the evidence points altogether to the view that at first his design in associating himself with England was, while gaining the benefit of the alliance, to make use of it for peace, and not for war.

Martin, in his Life of the Prince Consort, says, "Amity with England, and a close political alliance, had been uniformly declared to be the Emperor's dearest wish." On ascending the throne he had said, "Certain persons say the Empire is only war. But I say the Empire is peace, for France desires it."

At the time of the Vienna Note, the Prince Consort, discussing the parties to it, said, "Louis Napoleon wishes for peace, enjoyment, and cheap corn."

On the 8th August 1853 the Queen's speech said, "The Emperor of the French has united with Her Majesty in earnest endeavours to reconcile differences the continuation of which would involve Europe in war."

And after the fleets were in the Bosphorus, the Prince Consort wrote: "Louis Napoleon shows by far the greatest statesmanship, which is easier for the individual than the many; he is moderate, but firm; gives way to us even when his plan is better than ours, and revels in the advantages he derives from the alliance with us."

No conjectures can hold their ground against this testimony, and it may be taken for certain that the Emperor faithfully co-operated with our Government throughout in its endeavours to settle the quarrel by diplomatic pressure, backed by the display of force.

When, however, they took the last step of sending their fleets to the Bosphorus, the control of events passed out of their hands. If Russia should choose to disregard the moral pressure of their presence, and, resenting their entry into the Bosphorus, to avenge it on the Turks, the Allies could no longer preserve a mediatory attitude. They must become principals.

This was foreseen by the Queen when she wrote thus to Lord Clarendon: "It appears to the Queen that we have taken on ourselves, in conjunction with France, all the risks of a European war, without having bound Turkey to any conditions with respect to provoking it."

Russian Provocation

The justice of this view of the matter was presently made evident. The Turks, while keeping most of their fleet in the Bosphorus, had left a squadron of light war-vessels in the Black Sea. On the 30th November it was at anchor in the port of Sinope, when Admiral Nakimoff attacked it with six ships of the line, and absolutely destroyed it, with its crews to the number of 4000 men.

It is not necessary to argue that the Russians were exceeding their rights as belligerents in order to show the impolicy of this stroke. While the disparity of force deprived it of all glory, it roused public feeling, hitherto not too favourable to the Czar, to a pitch which, certainly in England, could only be appeased by arms. For long the English people had been chafing at the wrongs inflicted on the Turks, aggravated by the patience with which they were endured. Each successive step of the Czar had aroused deeper indignation.

In the original difficulty, the position of the Sultan, pressed by such powerful rivals for an award which could bring him only unmitigated trouble, seemed to entitle him to special indulgence. But Menschikoff's bearing throughout his mission was arrogant and provocative. The setting up of the second pretext, on the failure of the first, revealed the real intention of grinding Turkey to dust.

The seizure of the Principalities showed a contempt for public law and common justice so gross that the popular mind could easily appreciate it. His manifestoes, outrageous in tone and matter, had been fuel to the flame; and now the crash at Sinope, under the very shadow of our ships, was of a character thoroughly to exasperate a people whose element was the sea. The French could probably in no case have endured to see their fleet return without some substantial triumph, but a reckless utterance of the Czar effectually roused them from what had hitherto been a somewhat supine view of the situation.

The French Emperor had addressed to him, as a final attempt, a letter suggesting a scheme of pacification, and assuring him that if it were rejected the Western Powers must declare war. In his reply, among other taunts, Nicholas said, "Russia will prove herself in 1854 what she was in 1812." This allusion to the disasters in Russia, so ruinous to the first Napoleon's power, and so humiliating to France, effectually dispelled the apathy of the French people.

When Louis Napoleon proposed to our Government that the fleets should enter the Black Sea, and if necessary compel all Russian ships met with there to return to Sebastopol, the measure hardly kept pace with the feelings aroused in both countries.

On the 27th February 1854 France and England demanded the evacuation of the Principalities by the 30th April as their ultimatum. No answer was vouchsafed, and in March they declared war. If any further stimulus had been needed for the British people, it was now supplied in the publication of the Czar's conversations with Sir Hamilton Seymour, hitherto held in official secrecy. His parable of the sick man then proved much more striking and suggestive than he could have desired. It caught the popular fancy-it was seen to have indicated a foregone conclusion-and he who could foretell the sick man's dissolution, and arrange for the distribution of his possessions, was judged to have been intent ever since on fulfilling his own prophecy.

At this time everything pointed to a campaign on the Danube. When the Turks declared war, the Russians in the Principalities, not yet ready to advance, remained on the defensive along the river. Omar Pasha, facing them, crossed and seized Kalafat, and desultory combats, much more calculated to exalt the military repute of the Turks than of the Russians, had gone on there during the autumn and winter. But it was obvious that it could serve no purpose to the Czar, that it must rather destroy his military along with his diplomatic repute, to let the war drag on in this way.

Accordingly, by May 1854 Russian troops had been concentrated in the Principalities in sufficient force to begin an offensive movement. The preliminaries to the passage of the Balkans, in the march on Constantinople, were to be the sieges of the Turkish fortresses of Silistria and Shumla; and the invasion of Turkey began with the passage of the Danube by the Russians, who opened their first parallel before Silistria on the 19th May.

Thus it happened that the troops of England and France, as they arrived in Turkish waters, were at first conveyed to Varna, and were now encamped between that place and Shumla, in the expectation of defending the fortresses by fighting the army in the field. But now another influence intervened, which entirely changed the aspect of the war.

On the 13th January 1854 the Four Powers, none of them at that time at war with Russia, had obtained the agreement of Turkey to fresh terms to be submitted to the Czar, and were sending back his envoys with an avowal of their intention to oppose his acts of aggression. Kinglake says that Nicholas had been so slow to believe that the young Kaiser could harbour the thought of opposing him in arms, that on receiving the assurance of their alienation he was wrung with grief.

This is a fresh proof that his autocratic temper had been so fostered by long exercise of irresponsible power that he could no longer read facts truly where his wishes were strongly concerned; that he believed only what he desired to believe ; and that his faith in the friendship of the Kaiser, and the pacific temper of England, had been of paramount effect in blinding him to the difficulties in his path. Well might the Prince Consort write, just after Sinope, "the Emperor of Russia is manifestly mad."

On the 3rd of June, Austria, with the support now finally secured of Prussia, summoned the Czar to evacuate the Principalities. In February she had moved 50,000 men up to the frontier of the territory seized by the Czar. Her territorial position on the north bank of the Danube is such as to enable her effectually to check a Russian invasion of Turkey in that direction. The operation can only be persisted in by first repelling the Austrian advance.

For this the Czar was not prepared. He continued his operations on the river just long enough to give a victorious aspect to the valiant defence of Silistria, and to a subsequent passage of the Danube at Giurgevo by the Turks, led by English officers. Austria was on the point of war, and had sent an officer to the English headquarters to form a joint plan of operations, when the Czar at last perceived that the pressure on him could not be resisted.

The siege of Silistria was raised ; the Russians immediately began to withdraw from the Principalities, and on the 2nd August they recrossed the frontier. The Austrian troops thereupon occupied, in the interests of Turkey, the territories thus abandoned.

Now Austria did not then, or afterwards, declare war against Russia. But, as has been related, France and England had done so in March. It may be, and has been, said that had the Western Powers gone step by step with Austria, leaving it to her, who had most concern in a war on the Danube, to give the word for the commencement of hostilities, the Czar would, as the event proved, have been forced to abandon his prey, and the final settlement of the quarrel between him and Turkey might still have been effected by negotiation.

It is impossible to deny this, but at the same time it is impossible absolutely to affirm it, For no negotiations could have been satisfactory which did not provide some compensation for Turkey; and it is very unlikely that the Czar would have conceded this without the compulsion of arms. But the determining cause may well have been the savage blow delivered at Sinope, which roused the impatience of the Western peoples to a pitch beyond control.

But now, with the abandonment of the Principalities, that which had hitherto been the ground of contention had suddenly vanished, and with it had vanished also the immediate concern in the quarrel of Austria and Prussia, whose alliance for the coercion of the Czar had been formed expressly "in defence of the interests of Germany."

But English views had for long gone against the acceptance of a drawn game. To withdraw the Allied fleets from the Euxine without having fired a shot, while its waters were still strewed with the wrecks of the Turkish ships; to leave the shores of Turkey unprotected, while opposite to them stood the embodied menace of Sebastopol, with its forts and arsenal, from whence had just issued the destroying squadron; and to abandon the Ottoman Empire to the impulses of so grasping, so unscrupulous, and so vindictive a personality as that of Nicholas, had not in this latter period been included within the range of possibilities.

On the first declaration of war the French Emperor had sketched, and our Ministry bad approved, a plan for the attack of Sebastopol. "In no event," said Lord Lyndhurst in June, "except that of extreme necessity, ought we to make peace without previously destroying the Russian fleet in the Black Sea, and laying prostrate the fortifications by which it is defended."

On the 24th July the Times wrote, "the broad policy of the war consists in striking at the very heart of the Russian power in the East, and that heart is at Sebastopol." And its editor, Mr John Delane, who had gone to Constantinople to observe events, told Lord Stratford that if our army were to perish before Sebastopol, the first thought of the nation at home would be to raise another, and go on. And this state of feeling had been aroused by the sense entertained in this country of the dangerous nature of the Czar's designs, and of the dishonesty which had marked his pursuit of them.

"It is," wrote the Queen, in discussing the causes of the war, "the selfishness, and ambition, and want of honesty of one man and his servants which has done it." Such were the circumstances in which France and England prepared to transfer their armaments from Turkey to the Crimea.

Chapter II: Landing in the Crimea