Before commencing operations note that per the WD- style victory point chart the Allied player loses 1 VP for each turn after Feb I 1941 that he fails to capture Massawa, while the Italian player receives 10 VPs for every 6-month period that he controls British Somaliland. Consequently, both sides' immediate objectives are fairly obvious: bold/take Massawa and British Somaliland as long as possible/as quickly as possible.

Each player also needs to be conscious of the importance of the sparse Ethiopian road network, as supply restrictions and prohibitive SMP costs make extended off-road operations impractical. Consequently, apart from relatively short flanking maneuvers, the Allied advance will be largely tied to the roads. The Italian player must take advantage of this by establishing strong blocking positions astride the roads in favourable terrain, thus forcing the Allied player to pay in time and casualties, the two commodities he can least afford.

In order to build a credible defense, the Italian frontier forces, which are doomed anyhow, must sell their lives as dearly as possible. Meanwhile, the expenditure of two or three steps of supply in the rear will enable the Italian player to use this reprieve to start fortifying his main line of resistance and to get reinforcements to threatened areas using administrative movement. He must decide whether to commit all his forces to the defensive battle in an effort to stop the Allies cold, or hold back some to garrison one or more last ditch strongholds such as Addis Ababa or Gondar, hoping the Allies win be sufficiently weakened breaking through his forward defenses as to be unable to take his last redoubts.

The southern front can be almost ignored for the first month or two. Although Italian forces facing the Allies in Kenya are both thin on the ground and poorly deployed, logistics and sheer distance will hamper Allied operations until completion of the road to Kismayu. By trading space for time and taking advantage of interior lines and the relatively high concentrations of troops and supplies around Addis Ababa, the Italian player should have plenty of time to prepare to meet the Allies.

Depending on whether they advance via the northwest or northeast road, the Italian player can build a respectable defense either in the vicinity of the line 3920-3821-3822, or in the mountains south of Dire Dawa. An advance along both roads, while making the situation a little trickier, would also expose the Allied forces to the risk of defeat in detail.

In many respects for the first part of the game, the real action is in the north. 'Me only road from the Sudan traverses some of the best defensive terrain in East Africa. Because the Italian northern forces are not well positioned initially, however, rapid redeployment is especially critical to the successful defense of Eritrea. The main line of resistance should be based on the line of mountain hexsides north of hexes 2210, 2209, and 2108. The key to this position, as was historically the case, is Keren (2108), which should be held by at least 5-6 defense factors, including a division or artillery regiment for support. The other two hexes should be held in as much strength as possible, but should at least be overrun proof.

Ideally, if enough units are available, the fine should be extended a hex or two on each flank, again with nonoverrunable stacks. If Asmara and Massawa are then garrisoned against any attempted end runs, the Allied player will be forced to either launch risky frontal attacks through the mountains, or else dig the defenders out one hex at a time. But at the rate of one hex per turn, he'll have difficulty in taking Massawa before Feb I, and by the time he finally succeeds in battering his way through, he'll have to start withdrawing his best troops.

Finally, the Italian player shouldn't hesitate to use his small but potent fistful of combattmotorized units to counterattack if the Allied player sticks his neck out. An unsupported stack of two light tank battalions and two motorized brigades in attack supply can get odds of 1:2 or 1:1 (+3) against a stack of up to two Allied brigades, or even, with artillery and a point or two of air support, 1:1 (+2) against a full strength Indian or South African division. Although not a sure thing, either of these attacks could be potentially decisive in blunting the Allies' offensive edge, and would be a more than acceptable risk.

While the Italian player's position may be ultimately hopeless, the Allied player also has his share of problems. If, as Brian Knipple observed in ETO # 48, time and terrain are the Italian player's only friends, they are conversely the Allied player's greatest enemies. The Allied player's first big decision is when to take his surprise turn. He must weigh the potential advantages of awaiting reinforcements and additional supplies against the loss of valuable time. He must remember that, while the Italian player can move only a limited number of units each turn (determined by a die roll) until the Allies invade, even that limited capability will enable him to improve his defenses. The last thing in the world the Allied player needs is to go up against a reinforced garrison in Kismayu or Mogadishu.

Although logistics are a problem, at least until the road is completed, the southern offensive is relatively straightforward, as Allied forces are not as severely denuded by withdrawals on the southern front as in the north. Kismayu can and should be taken on the surprise turn, so that the Allied player can start shipping in supply steps on the ensuing regular turn. These can then provide general supply for the advance on Mogadishu.

Once Mogadishu falls, the Allied player must decide where to go next. An advance along the northeast road, more or less following the historical route, will bring the Allied forces to the borders of British Somaliland and enable them to take a number of urioccupied or lightly-defended cities quickly and painlessly, thus encouraging early desertion of the Italian colonial troops. As well, the Indian "Aden" Marine Brigade can be used upon its arrival on Jan I to invade British Somaliland in support of the overland advance.

The Allied player faces an entirely different situation in the north. He is not restricted by logistics as in the south and his immediate objectives are not as distant. The Italian player, not having the luxury of enormous amounts of empty space as in the south, must stand and fight. Unfortunately for the Allies, as we've already seen, the terrain favours the Italians.

The Allied player must balance the need to take Massawa as quickly as possible against the need to keep his forces intact. While an early attack can make good progress against the initially disorganized Italians, it can also leave Allied troops exposed to potentially crippling counterattacks. On the other hand, while postponing the offensive and awaiting reinforcements may seem like an attractive alternative, every turn of delay gives the Italian player an extra turn to improve his main fine of resistance.

However the Allied player resolves this quandary, some general principles should be observed. The good offensive troops, especially the Indians, should be stacked together, and weaker units, such as the Sudanese battalions, should be used to protect flanks and garrison supply dumps and air bases against the depredations of marauding Italian motorized units. The Allies should keep attacking, or at least use the threat of attack, to force the Italians to consume supplies. If the Italian player exhausts his supplies, permanently halving his effective defensive strength, and colonial morale cracks, things will get much easier, and the final stages of the campaign should be just a matter of mopping up.

On the Horns of a Dilemma In the Horn of Africa

Introduction
Fighting in the Horn
Last Thoughts