Thanks for the help of rec.games.board. This is a revision of an earlier post that was quite helpfully added to and ripped apart, making it all around a much better strategy guide. People's comments are acknowledged (hopefully all of them). If you have any comments/corrections, please email me. I might want to revise it again someday.
The Production Value of Hexes
Before you place settlements, figure out how much the intersection is worth. First, a refresher on the number distribution of 2d6. Below is the number of times (out of 36) that a particular number shows up:
Number on die / chance number comes up out of 36
2: 1
3: 2
4: 3
5: 4
6: 5
7: 6
8: 5
9: 4
10: 3
11: 2
12: 1
So if you have a settlement on a 3/5/10 intersection, the chance that it will produce something that turn will be 2+4+3, or 9 out of 36 (1 in 4). Using this info, any intersection can be ranked on just production value from 0 (the edge of a desert on the water) to 15 (three hexes having an 8 or a 6). Note that a 15 is not supposed to happen. I have only seen one game where a 14 occurred (due to an unusual combination of two deserts in a 5 player game), and the intersection with the highest total number is best, as it will get you more resources.
Growth
How fast you grow is exponential, not linear! In a linear growth mode, you would continue to get the same amount of resources each turn. In Settler's, "investing" production to build more production centers (settlements and cities) leads to an exponential growth rate. It's how compound interest works, and why if you invest a little early on in the game you can get a huge advantage later. Even a small numerical advantage in production the beginning can result in an inordinately large production later on. (Note that the rate of exponential growth decreases as the game progresses, as the "best" intersections are settled or converted to cities, leaving only the lower-value intersections remaining for new production centers. Even though the rate of exponential growth dereases, this growth is still exponential and should be taken into account.) I would argue that this is the most important concept of the game. It is a major factor (arguably the most important factor) in the initial setup, and also determines what your first few turns look like. Simply put, Build Production Centers in the first few turns, and build them in areas that are relatively high in production value. You do not want to be caught behind another player in the exponential growth race. Don't bother with the longest road, largest army, exploring unknown hexes in Seefahrers scenarios, etc. Your main goal at the beginning should be to increase production. (Note that if building production centers cannot be done in your turn, it may be advantageous to buy cards, build roads for future use, start exploring, etc., just to keep the robber away from an ever-increasing hand. However, this should be treated as a fallback plan.)
For example, consider the player who wants to go to a gold hex island early in the game, to get the extra victory points (the gold hex gives you one of any resource in Seefahrers). Say it costs three ships to get to a gold island in a particular scenario, and then you need to build a settlement that only borders on that one hex. That is a total card cost of ten. Let's see, say the gold hex produces on a 10, that is one every 12 turns (3 out of 36). That means you will get back your investment in 120 turns. Not a good idea early in the game. The moral is keep your eye on production the first few turns.
Strategies
There are a number of strategies in Settlers. Your choice of strategies will influence your initial setup and overall game play.
The Ore/Grain Strategy.
The most popular strategy. This is an initial placement to get ore and grain early, to produce cities fast. Focus more on ore than grain, as you will need three ores to build a city, compared to two grains. In this strategy you will probably be focused on getting the largest army later on. Lots of players mess this up by not focusing enough on settlements. It is really easy to find yourself with four cities and zero settlements at the endgame, and not being able to get another two settlements because you are boxed in (although this is not bad at all if you can get the largest army or two victory point cards in a 10-point game). It is a good idea to box other in who are using this strategy. It can be a good strategy for Seefahrers, as it is harder to get boxed in (simply build to an island). Getting an ore or grain port is great for this strategy, as after you build four cities you won't have a need for these resources as much, and it can make the endgame a lot easier. This is especially true in a game that requires more than 10 victory points, as you still have a way to go after building the maximum four cities. This strategy is often so powerful because the first cities you produce will probably be on your initial settlements, which should have high production values. Other people going for settlements right off will probably be left with lower production-value intersections. (Chuck Messenger)
At the end you will be the constant target of the robber, as ore and grain become valuable to the other players. You need to have been saving knights so that you can get the robber off your production units. Also, since you have cities, your production spaces will naturally look like better places for the others to put the robber. (Trevor Hyde)
The Wood/Brick Strategy
This is a strategy to build settlements and roads fast. This means you will probably be focusing on getting the longest road. A wood/brick port is very useful in this strategy, as finding a way to get ore/grain will be important to build cities for the middle to end game.
All things being equal (which isn't the case, of course, as the type of resources is important), the intersection not as good with lots of people on a small board, as you need room to grow. This works better with scenarios such as Grosse Catan in Seefahrers. For this strategy, it is very important that you build new settlements around grain and ore hexes, or you will have a very difficult time trying to build cities later on in the game (which are crucial for a win).
With your increased road building capability, you should build your roads to cut off other player's expansion. This can help in denying Ore/Grain players from acquiring enough building sites they need to win the game. (Greg Aleknevicus)
The Straight Numerical Advantage Strategy
Not trying to any one resource in particular. This strategy really tries to maximize production. You may need to trade a lot, because you may end up with a strange mix. This works better in games with more people (more people to trade with). A 3:1 port is probably essential, if you have a varied mix of resources.
The Monopoly Strategy
This is a strategy to gain control of a particular resource. This works better with fewer people, as there is less trading going on (and people are more likely to come to you). You will need a port of the monopolized resource to trade off your excess (and to restrict supply). This doesn't work too well later on in the game, as everyone has ports, or is willing to trade four resources to get what they need. As the sole strategy, it can really backfire if your monopoly doesn't work, or if the other player's strategy doesn't need your resource (for example, trying to monopolize brick when everyone else is trying to build cities). It works best combined with another strategy, and with less experienced players. Be prepared to have the robber stay on one of your initial hexes.
One variant to the monopoly strategy is the "Sheep-O-Matic" strategy. A friend of mine sometimes likes to go after wool hexes. At the beginning of the game, the Wood-Brick players and Ore-Grain players (the two most popular strategies) will only be trying for them if they are convenient. Since both strategies need wool, he can often trade somewhat easily. He goes for a wool port (the Sheep-O-Matic) to get cards he can't trade for. While I have never see him win with this strategy, he doesn't do too badly. I haven't seen him try this yet in Seefahrers, where it just might work (everyone needs wool for sails).
The Card Builder Strategy
This strategy is similar to the Ore/Grain Strategy, as it involves getting Ore/Grain hexes and building two cities fast. Then, cranking out development cards. This player will get an inordinate number of Knight cards, allowing them to keep the robber off their hexes and get other resources by stealing from other players. Often, victory point cards will come up. At some point in the game, try for a third settlement or city. The largest army is practically guaranteed. (Chuck Messenger This strategy strives for a balance in all resources. Settlements can be built relatively quickly, and the player is less likely to be boxed in. Also, this strategy leads people to become more self-sufficient, and less likely to require trading. (Chuck Messenger) A 3:1 port could be very useful here.
The initial setup should take into account a number of factors. Note that a lot of the information below is also applicable whenever a new settlement is built.
1. Production Value. The production value of the intersection you will place your first settlements on is, IMHO, the most important factor to consider. You need to be on the exponential growth curve early. The other factors below should be considered only after figuring out how much they will decrease your overall production value, and if it is worth it. Before going to that lower value Ore/Wheat intersection, make sure it is really worth that drop in production.
2. Strategy you will use. Of course, a straight production value is less useful (maybe a lot less useful) if you are not getting the combination of resources you need.
3. What other players will be doing. If you place first and you put your first settlement on that great 8 Ore hex, don't depend on that 6 Wheat hex being available when you place your second settlement. When going first, your strategy might have to be more flexible as everyone will be placing all the rest of their settlements before you. In this case, you may not be able to figure out your strategy until you actually place your second settlement. (Isaac Kuo)
4. You will probably need a port to win the game, or a lotta luck. Some strategies are better served with a 3:1 port, while others by a specific resource port. Make sure you know how you will get them. Don't stress too much over ports early on, they are more important in the endgame. But don't get blocked from reaching one, either.
A popular strategy is to go for a port on the first turn, which means you are on an intersection with only two hexes at most. It had better be worth it, because it is going to have to offset the increased production of someone who placed two inland settlements, with a higher total production value. Sometimes ports are just screaming to have a settlement placed on them at the initial setup (for example, an intersection with an ore port on an 8 ore hex). Expect the robber to show up at hexes like these.
If a particular resource looks like it's going to be extremely rare, it may be worthwhile to start off with a port, especially if you're the last player and can coordinate a good combination of spots. (Isaac Kuo 6. The distribution of numbers is important. For a straight numerical advantage, placing a settlement between two hexes with a 5 is exactly the same as placing between a 4 and a 6. However, the distribution will be different. A smaller selection of numbers mean that you will get a lot of resources clumped together, and a larger selection of numbers means that you will get resources spread out more. Both have their advantages and disadvantages. The same number on two resources that are commonly used together (for example, wood and clay) can be very useful, as they can immediately be used and less port trading will be required (Isaac Kuo) If there are two different players already on a hex, consider jumping in too. It is hard for the robber to stay on a hex with three players who want to get him off of it. And fewer players will place a robber there in the first place.
8. Try not to place both settlements around a single good producing spot. Besides probably reducing expansion capability, this makes that spot a prime target for the robber. (Isaac Kuo kuo@mouse.csc.lsu. edu)
9. Examine the board to see which commodity will be the hardest to get, and consider putting one of your settlements on the best tile for that commodity. A supply of a rare commodity may be more important than an extra 2/36 chance of a sheep. (Allen Doum)
1. You need either the largest army, longest road, or a lotta luck to win. Figure out early in the game what you are going to shoot for. Note that the longest road and largest army are worth more if the other players aren't trying for them. The more roads/knights that you have to buy, the worse the investment. (Allen Doum)
This means it might actually be preferable to go for the one that you normally would not, if there is going to be a lot of competition (for example, longest road when you are playing an Ore/Grain strategy).
2. Numbers coming up early in the game are much more important than later in the game, due to the exponential growth rate. This means that the robber is also more important early in the game. If the robber lands on someone early in the game, its effect can be far worse than later.
1. Victory points are great when you get them, but are not to be counted on at the endgame. There are seven victory point cards in a 36-card deck in the original Mayfair version, which means you are drawing an average of five (at a cost of 15 production cards!) to get a point, and ten (30 cards!) to get two. It is much easier to get two points with far less than 30 production cards the old-fashioned way -- build something. It gets worse with the Kosmos version (five victory point cards), diluting the mix even further.
2. Don't use knights too early. Save them if you can to keep the robber off of your hexes (play before you roll the dice in this case). However, don't get caught with too many development cards, as you can only play one per turn. This is especially important if going for the largest army -- get those knights out before the endgame. (there is an exception to every rule!)
3. Watch out buying too many development cards early. If you draw a victory point card (or two) at the beginning, it can really hurt your future development chances, as they don't produce. However, the rest of the cards can produce for you (at least indirectly). (Aaron D. Fuegi 5. If you can't build anything, consider buying a card if you can. You will lower your card count and keep the robber away. Also, it is a great way to”"store" resources for use later.
6. It is hard to get the robber off of you without Knights. Remember, a seven comes up only once every six turns. Odds are that means that at least one production of a hex with the robber on it will not occur without a Knight card.
People seem pretty split on trading. It seems that some will only trade kicking and screaming, as they see big problems with helping other players. Others don't seem to mind, as long as they make sure to look out for number one. I have always tried to trade as much as I can in the early game, primarily out of one big fear -- if I don't trade with Player X, Player X is going to trade with Player Y. In this case, Player X and Player Y will have a better distribution of resource cards (and hence will build more) than me. This is especially bad if X or Y is an adjacent and direct competitor with me for future resources. If you don't trade with X, someone else will. This leads me to take the position that trading is necessary, and instead to focus on the question of how to make the trade as advantageous to you (and as disadvantageous to others) as possible, as long as it is going to happen anyway.
The benefits from trading are not always equally distributed. I would take the position that they seldom are. So how does one make sure they are distributed more in your favor then the other person?
1) Try to trade as close to your turn as possible, and preferably on your turn. Why? If you trade on your turn, you are probably going for something you need at that moment. For example, you need one more grain to make your city. Trading on your turn means you KNOW where this card is going -- to your city. However, the other person who is trading a grain to you, for a wool say, does not know they are actually going to use that wool on their turn. They might be trying for a settlement, and when their turn comes around do not have a clay.
Or maybe the robber stole a card. Or a monopoly card was played. Or they wound up producing a wool themselves on that 12 they didn't think they would roll. In any case, when their turn comes around, they may or may not be using that wool for something. You, on the other hand, know you will be using that grain. If they don't use that wool, that trade was a bust for them, and you were the one who got the greater benefit from that trade.
The farther from your turn you make a trade, the greater the chance that something will happen that will make that card you got worthless, or of losing the card entirely. And that means the other person probably got more benefit out of that trade than you.
If the person who plays the turn ahead of you is trying to make a trade with you, try to wait until your turn instead, if you can. They will have to wait another turn to produce what they wanted. Of course, if they really want to they will trade 4 to 1 or through a port, and then you are stuck. To stop a trade, you can always promise the player who turn it isn't that you will trade with them when their turn comes around, by arguing how they will benefit from this and how the player whose turn it is will be hurt, by the reasoning above.
2) Conversely, try to trade with others who are farther away from their turn, if all things are equal (seldom is this the case, of course). Of course, you don't have much of a choice if it is not your turn, as you have to trade with the person whose turn it is.
3) Trade with people who are losing, or are no threat to you. This is a no-brainer.
4) Trade early on as much as possible. You don't want to fall behind on that exponential growth race. I recently played a game in which early on another player made a four-to-one trade with the bank, rather than trade one-to-one with me. I thought she was nuts, but then I was a little biased. However, in order for me not to have the benefit, she fell on the sword herself. I made a two-to-one port trade to get that resource instead, and was therefore two cards ahead of her. The real winners were the other two players. Losing this many production cards this early on did not help her growth rate at all, and I wound up winning in a very close battle that she might have won instead.
5) Remember, you can always trade for stuff besides cards, though it isn't binding. How much is it worth to someone for you to build a road and block off a potential port of their immediate competitor? This is useful when you really need a card or cards and have no cards to trade that the other person wants. And you can always trade wood and brick in unequal trades to the person whose turn it is, to stop someone from getting the longest road (or whatever) when you can't build there yourself.These comments are probably a lot less useful for those of you who play with the German 5-6 player build rules (anyone can build on any turn). However, I have never played them. I would be interested in knowing how they affect the game, however.
1. Put yourself in the other players shoes. Figure out their strategy, so you don't trade them something they need, and so you can beat them to a particular spot on the board you both might need. Don't let other people become self-sustainable! Once they don't have to trade, you are probably finished. Also, get into the habit of counting their victory points every turn, and figuring out how the player will probably go for what they need to win. This may seem obvious, but most people do not do it.
2. Watch out where you put the robber. You might need that resource, or suddenly create a shortage. Consider putting it on a resource you already have a supply for, and don't have to trade for. And of course, on someone who is ahead, or someone who has a resource you need. If you put it on a hex with fewer number of people, it will stay there longer. Finally, consider putting it on a hex so that you are left as the sole or major producer of a commodity. (Greg Aleknevicus)
3. Don't be a target. This means hiding points to near the end if possible (do you really want the longest road with five segments, and being ahead in points that early on?). Or wait to put out that last knight if you can.
4. If going for the longest road, don't make too many "side trips" with
roads. You only have 15. Remember, if you are the first person to get a road 15 in length, it cannot be taken away from you. This is much less important in Seefahrers, when the longest road could theoretically be 30 long.
6. If you know you are not going for longest road, then building settlements off triangle forks saves you having to build two roads for each settlement, and instead allows to you build three roads (instead of four) to get to two settlements.
This article appears in MagWeb (Magazine Web) on the Internet World Wide Web.Initial Setup
Early Game
Development Cards
Trading
Other Notes
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