The short answer is probably not! The greater likelihood is that Beijing will be overcome by the economic and internal problems China faces. Skeptics like Kenneth Allen, in his 1995 book on the Chinese Air Force for the Rand Corporation; Robert Ross, in his rejoinder to Munro and Bernstien in Foreign Affairs; and Ehsan Ahrari, writing in Jane's Intelligence Review, doubt that China can bring to fruition its military modernization plans. Indeed, as this monograph points out, there are considerable economic, structural, and technological impediments restricting China's defense sector. However, it is prudent to plan on the likelihood that China will accomplish in the military realm what it has managed in some sectors of civil industry. The example of Zhang Ruimin and the Hailer Group is most instructive in this regard. Perhaps the most well-known and most reliable air conditioning systems, heating and refrigeration equipment made in China today come from Haier. In 1984, as the story goes, Zhang Ruimin took over a failing, collectively-owned refrigerator plant in China's industrial northeast and turned it into a stable, thriving, multinational enterprise selling what are arguably the best, most reliable products in the refrigeration sector in China with warrantees, a network of repairmen, and parts and service guarantees that work. Zhang did this by starting out with serious quality control. He destroyed products that would not pass inspection and penalized his first-line managers for shoddy work. He also fired people that wouldn't produce. He added systems engineering and integration. Moreover, he instituted a warranty and ensured that there was a network of repairmen and spare parts to install and repair Haier products if there were malfunctions. [5] After cornering the air conditioner market in the north-east with the assistance of a Japanese joint venture partner, Zhang Ruimin expanded into other parts of China. Continuing the same warranty service and spare parts program, Zhang built Haier into one of the most successful companies in China. In a competitive salary and market environment, what if Zhang Ruimin could be attracted into the military aircraft manufacturing industry? What happens if Zhang, or a manager like him, who understands management, quality control, a good work ethic, systems engineering, and quality service, takes over China's aircraft carrier project? We already know that someone like Zhang is in charge of the short range and medium range ballistic missile program, mass-producing effective M-9 and M- 11 missiles that can be armed with nuclear warheads. Some other very effective manager is producing sea and air-launched cruise missiles (C-801 and 802). Soon, with airborne data links, the PLA will master over-the-horizon targeting. When it does, the Chinese armed forces may not be a threat to the U.S. homeland, but the PIA will threaten deployed U.S. ground forces and U.S. naval battle groups. When China develops land-contour modeling cruise missiles like the U.S. Tomahawk, with a 1500-mile range, it will have a serious land attack capability. When we think about China's military potential, we should really keep in mind just how quickly good management and leadership transformed one air conditioning company. It took Zhang Ruimin from 1984 to 1989. Japan took less than 3 years to produce an 8,900-ton amphibious assault ship capable of moving at 22 knots and transporting 330 troops. It is conceivable that China could do the same, given a good management team. The modernization and improvement of China's civil industry will have these kinds of spin-offs for the defense sector. Therefore, notwith- standing all of the obstacles China faces, China's military potential bears watching. It is not difficult to contemplate China's becoming a regional hegemonic power in the 21st century. Back to Table of Contents China's Military Potential Back to SSI List of Issues Back to MagWeb Magazine List © Copyright 1998 by US Army War College. This article appears in MagWeb (Magazine Web) on the Internet World Wide Web. Other military history articles and gaming articles are available at http://www.magweb.com