by Steven Metz
From the end of World War II, revolutionary insurgency was epidemic in the developing world, driven by an unfortunate conflux of trends and factors. For instance, most Third World governments exercised only limited or ineffective control over parts of their nations. Because of rugged terrain, poor infrastructure, government inefficiency, and tradition, the common pattern was for the influence of the regime to decline according to distance from the capital. The national government was something of an abstraction. As Jeffrey Race noted in his classic study, War
Comes to Long An, "for the majority of the Vietnamese
population, 'government' has always meant simply the village
council-the peasant had little experience of any other."
[1]
The fragile legitimacy of many Third World regimes
also helped set the stage for insurgency. Since many Third
World states were artificial creations of colonialism, no national
government, however good, would be accepted by all
segments of the population.
The stress on local or primal identities during the
colonial period-part of a deliberate "divide and conquer"
approach by the imperial metropolesexacerbated this problem.
In Asian and African states where decolonization was peaceful,
regimes often found it difficult to build legitimacy because of the
taint of association with the colonial masters. Even in regions
long independent or
autonomous such as Latin America and parts of the Islamic world,
repression and corruption by autocratic or traditional regimes
eroded government legitimacy.
The electronic and transportation revolutions of the 20th
century also paved the way for revolutionary insurgency by allowing
people in remote regions to develop an accurate sense of their
predicament. Before modern communication, the hinterland poor
assumed that all the world lived as they did. With the advent of
modern communication, they recognized their disadvantages and,
more importantly, blamed the government. The result was what
social scientists call the "revolution of rising expectations" which
simply meant that demands on Third World states tended to grow
faster than the government's ability to meet them, thus generating
frustration. Empirical studies have closely linked the resulting
"perceived relative deprivation" with political violence.
[2]
Improvements in communication and transportation also
gave revolutionaries methods to organize support and allowed
them to study and emulate revolutionary success in other parts of
the world.
At the same time, changes in global values helped
legitimize revolutionary violence. Although Americans often forgot it
during the Cold War, armed resistance to repression has been an
intrinsic part of the Western political tradition, enshrined in the
Declaration of Independence. Reflecting this, the political left in the
United States and Western Europe remained sympathetic to Third
World revolutionaries fighting repressive regimes. Ironically, the
ascendence to superpower status of the United States, with its
strong liberal tradition, helped spark global consciousness
concerning human rights which, in turn, further legitimized armed
resistance to repression. It is not coincidence that Ho Chi Minh
cited the American Declaration of Independence during his
announcement of the independent Republic of Vietnam in 1945.
[3]
The French-speaking parts of the Third World also found
justification for revolution in their intellectual heritage. The liberating
effect of political violence was a recurring theme among French
thinkers Rousseau through Georges Sorel.
[4]
Frantz Fanon, who argued that only violence could
psychologically liberate the victims of colonialism, was very
influential among Third World radicals.
[5]
And throughout the 1950s and 1960s the United Nations
General Assembly, increasingly dominated by Third World nations
recently liberated from colonialism, implicitly and, sometimes,
explicitly approved armed struggles which it considered "just."
Finally, the existence of an international support network
manipulated by the Soviet Union encouraged the spread and
persistence of insurgency. Armed opponents otherwise easy for
even weak regimes to defeat became serious threats with training,
advice, equipment, and sanctuary from the Soviet Union, China, or
one of their surrogates. Mao's triumph in 1949, in addition to
providing a blueprint for successful revolution, offered potential
insurgents proof that even apparently strong, Western-backed
regimes could be defeated.
Insurgency took a number of forms, some specific to
certain regions or countries, others global, but all were attempts to
alter the social, political, and economic status quo through
violence. In contrast to insurrections or coups d'dtat, insurgencies
were characterized by protractedness and broad participation. In
essence, insurgent strategists had two tasks: first, strip legitimacy
from the regime, and, second, seize it themselves.
The precise strategy of an insurgency varied according to
its leaders' backgrounds, personalities, and answers to questions
concerning the nature and extent of the insurgent coalition, its
ideological framework, geographic focus, and the priority accorded
the military and political dimensions of the conflict.
Of the insurgent strategies that appeared during the Cold
War, Maoist "people's war" was undoubtedly the most successful.
With the exception of Cuba, nearly all victorious insurgents-
Vietnam, Cambodia, Angola, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Guinea
Bisseau, Namibia, Algeria-followed
some variant of Maoist "people's war." This had several
defining characteristics: the primacy of political organization
over military operation, the development of extensive
political undergrounds and common fronts of "progressive"
organizations and movements, protractedness, and emphasis
on rural areas. All of these are simple ideas.
Why, exactly, was a "people's war" so successful? In part,
because it correctly identified and targeted the key
vulnerabilities of most Third World regimes: limited
legitimacy, weak public support, and shaky control of the
hinterlands. Maoist "people's war"was also able to organize
the very real, local grievances of Third World peasants into a
strategically significant movement. This distinguished
"people's war" from the innumerable serf, slave, and peasant
rebellions of the past, most of which never transcended their
local roots.
Maoist "people's war" was successful less because it
was truly new or innovative than because it was holistic,
integrated, and synchronized while the efforts of the
counterinsurgents were sometimes astrategic or, at best,
torn by contradictory and counterproductive practices. And,
finally, Maoist "people's war" succeeded because it was new.
Still, many of the key counterinsurgent powers had
dealt with small wars before. The French and British fought
insurgent-style opponents during their colonial expansion in
Asia and Africa, and the United States had faced guerrillas
during the Indian wars and in the Philippines, Mexico, and
Nicaragua. [6]
Yet this did not immediately translate into proficiency
at opposing communist "people's war." After some initial
problems, though, the United States came to grips with the
Huk Rebellion in the Philippines and the British eventually
defeated a Chinese-inspired insurgency in Malaya.
[7]
The French developed the most elaborate concept of
counterinsurgency but had the least success implementing it.
Based on their experience in Indochina, the French
concluded that counterinsurgency must mirror "people's
war." It thus required a careful blend of military, political, and
psychological efforts including pro-government propaganda,
mobilization of the state's political resources, attacks on the
subversive infrastructure, reconquest of liberated zones,
isolation and destruction of insurgent military forces, and
diplomatic efforts. [8]
Similarly, the British stressed strict unity of effort between
the military, economic, political, and police forces during
counterinsurgency, effective political and psychological
operations, and the limited use of firepower in military
operations. [9]
Initially, neither of these concepts found eager converts
in the U.S. military. Rather than use the 1950s to hone their
understanding of insurgency, policymakers and senior
military leaders ignored the hard-earned wisdom of America's
allies and forgot what the United States itself had learned and
captured in documents like the Marines' astute Small Wars
Manual of 1940. [10]
During President Dwight D. Eisenhower's tenure,
American national security strategy had been based on
"massive retaliation." [11] American superiority in strategic nuclear weapons,
he believed, would deter Soviet aggression better and more
cheaply than conventional forces. In the 1950s strategic
thinkers linked nuclear stalemate and "indirect aggression,"
but thought this would come as limited conventional war.
[12]
As a result, Americans trained their Third World allies
to confront Korea-style external invasion rather than internal
threats. In addition, U.S. conventional forces had declined
precipitously after the Korean War, leaving the United States
with little to counter guerrilla warfare. Even Army Special
Forces, which were created at this time, focused on partisan
warfare and unconventional operations in Europe rather than
insurgency. To the extent that Third World conflict was a
problem, Eisenhower and his national security team felt that
the European colonial powers-Great Britain, France, the
Netherlands, Portugal, and Belgium-would deal with it.
Under Kennedy, this changed. Inspired by
Khrushchev's January 1961 speech endorsing "wars of
national liberation," the eroding security situation in Laos and
South Vietnam, the consolidation of Fidel Castro's regime in
Cuba, the French defeat in Algeria, and the outbreak of
communist insurgencies in Colombia and Venezuela,
Kennedy was convinced that indirect aggression through
guerrilla insurgency had become a paramount security threat.
The strategic rationale for U.S. engagement in
counterinsurgency thus grew from ideas like the "domino
theory" and the notion of "death by a thousand
small cuts" advanced by French theorists of guerre
revolutionnaire. Revolutionary war, this group believed, was
the dominant form of conflict in the late 20th century. A defeat
for pro-Western forces even in places that appeared
strategically insignificant became important when seen as
one more small contribution to global Soviet victory.
Metaphorically, at least, the Cold War consisted of
interminable skirmishes rather than decisive pitched battles.
The strategic significance of insurgency, in other words, was
symbolic and perceptual rather than tangible and empirical.
Kennedy immediately instigated a wide-ranging
program to improve U.S. capabilities.
[13]
He first formed a Cabinet-level Special Group-the
Interdepartmental Committee on Overseas Internal Defense
Policy-to lay the groundwork for a unified counterinsurgency
strategy and coordinate the disparate elements of the
government. [14]
The Pentagon established the Office on Counter-
Insurgency and Special Activities headed by Major General
Victor H. Krulak (USMC) and gave him direct access to the
Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Secretary of Defense. [15]
The services integrated counterinsurgency into their
professional educational systems, and established training
centers. Army Special Forces were expanded and reoriented
toward counterinsurgency assistance. Even the State
Department and Agency for International Development began
to take counterinsurgency seriously (albeit with less
enthusiasm than the military). [16]
Within a year, the Interdepartmental Committee
released a basic statement of U.S. counterinsurgency
strategy. It stated [17]:
Reflecting the theoretical work of Kennedy advisor Walt
Rostow, the policy assumed economic "take off" was inherently
destabilizing and stressful.
[18]
Communists, under the leadership of the Soviet Union,
exploited this for their own geostrategic ends. The solution was to
ameliorate the root causes of the insurgency, to "deal with and
eliminate the causes of dissidence and violence."
[19]
"The U.S. must always keep in mind," wrote the
Interdepartmental Committee, "that the ultimate and decisive target
is the people. Society itself is at war and the resources, motives
and targets of the struggle are found almost wholly within the local
population."
[20]
But the policy stressed that outsiders cannot solve
insurgency, and thus the role of the United States should be strictly
limited. The United States sought to augment "indigenous
capabilities" and seek "the assistance of third countries and
international organizations ." [21]
The new policy intentionally glossed over what would later
became a raging debate between those who focused on the
endogenous political and economic causes of the insurgency and
those who stressed outside intervention and the military
dimensions of the problem. The debate between "root causes" and
"military threat" approaches to counterinsurgency grew from the
deliberate decision of insurgent strategists to make their struggle
neither war nor peace. Western democracies knew how to deal
with war and knew how to deal with peace. They were confused,
however, by conflicts overlapping and blending the two, by what
American policymakers and strategists would later recognize as
deliberate ambiguity.
When the U.S. military became heavily involved in Vietnam,
senior leaders largely ignored the American experience with small
wars as well as that of the British and French. From first
involvement until the mid 1960s, American advisors sought to
augment the conventional military capabilities of the South
Vietnamese Army (ARVN) in anticipation of a Korea-style war.
[22]
Even when the true nature of the conflict became clearer,
the U.S. Army, in Andrew Krepinevich's words, "was neither trained
nor organized to fight effectively in an insurgency conflict
environment.
[23]
With the exception of the Marines and Army Special
Forces, the U.S. military was uninterested in the more mundane
aspects of counterinsurgency such as training the ARVN, village pacification,
local self-defense, or rooting out insurgent political cadres, at least
at the higher level.
[24]
Perhaps more importantly, the United States never forced the
South Vietnamese regime to undergo fundamental reform. Army
Chief of Staff General Earle G. Wheeler reflected the thinking of
Johnson and top advisors when he said, "The essence of the
problem in Vietnam is military." [25]
Still, inappropriate military techniques in themselves did not
lose Vietnam. With a clear, coherent counterinsurgency strategy
and a president who understood Marxist "people's war," the U.S.
military could have been forced to change. But basic U.S.
counterinsurgency strategy contained major flaws. Having never
faced major engagement in a serious Maoist "people's war,"
American policymakers grossly under-estimated the extent and
length of commitment that this entailed, and thus became involved
in an area with absolutely no U.S. interests beyond the symbolic.
The Kennedy policy gave inadequate attention to preparing the
American public for engagement in counterinsurgency. In part this
was because the Kennedy approach to counterinsurgency
eschewed major involvement by the armed forces and stressed
advice and assistance. It also grew from Kennedy's confidence in
his ability to mobilize public support when necessary. Whatever the
cause, the effects were debilitating.
Some writers have suggested that Kennedy recognized
the mounting problems of U.S. engagement in Southeast Asia and
intended to withdraw after the 1964 elections. [26] But Johnson did not and, as
popular approval of American involvement lagged, the Vietnamese
communists skillfully used a program they called dich van ("action
among the enemy") to further weaken public support.
[27]
The administration offered no effective response. Lyndon
Johnson thus inherited a flawed strategy and made it worse by
allowing advocates of a military solution-both those in uniform and
key civilians like National Security Advisor Walt W. Rostow and
Secretary of Defense Robert S. McNamara-to win bureaucratic
battles over the conduct of the conflict while simultaneously
refusing the military the resources it considered necessary for
victory. [28]
By the time the United States formed an organization to
synchronize the military, political, and psychological
dimensions of the struggle in 1967--the Civilian Operations
and Revolutionary Development Support or CORDS program-
it was too late. [29]
The Viet Cong political infrastructure was too entrenched,
the South Vietnamese regime too corrupt and illegitimate, and
the American public too alienated to win the conflict. And even
CORDS could not substitute for coherent counterinsurgency
strategy. As Phillip B. Davidson noted, the communists won
because they had a superior grand strategy.
[30]
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