by Don M. Snider
In June 1994, the Clinton administration published its first NSSR containing that administration's strategy of 99 engagement and enlargement." A number of reasons have been offered as to why it was a year and a half into the term before a comprehensive statement of strategy was finished: the President was elected to focus on, and is focusing on, difficult and time-consuming issues of domestic policy; it has taken longer than anticipated to recruit political appointees such that the government "reflects America"; we have announced our strategy through a series of speeches, and will get to the congressional report later; and so forth. In fact, this lack of a published strategy reflects the
lack of consensus initially found within the administration,
and the difficulty that caused in formulating a new grand
strategy. This is not to imply that the administration, or at
least parts of it, had
not given much thought and discussion to various aspects of
an overall security strategy-the report of the Department of
Defense's Bottom-Up Review documenting one such effort.
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But, by one official's count, the NSSR went through 21
drafts between early 1993 and publication in July 1994. The
odyssey of the drafts portrays a lack of guidance and
attention, shifting priorities among too many goals, a series
of bureaucratic battles between the principal protagonists-
the Departments of Defense and State, several restarts, and
after the first six months, constant intrusions from the
realities of foreign affairs beyond the anticipation of the
administration.
This portrayal is, however, superficial in my
judgement. There are more fundamental reasons for the
lengthy and arduous process through which the Clinton
administration persevered to produce its view of the world
and America's role in it. First, it took a long time for the
administration to settle on a set of principles from which to
design and implement a consistent foreign policy. Second, it
remains to be seen how strongly the President believes in,
and how consistently he will act on, those principles outlined
in the report. The President has, in fact, already acted on a
number of them as documented in the report.
The Clinton administration has created a national
security structure within the Executive Branch that allows
each major point of view on national security an institutional
power base just short of the President, and with no other
office capable of integrating them. The important points of
view, particularly relevant to crisis management, but also
applicable to formulating strategy for a NSSR, and their
organizational bases are: the military options for security and
stability in the Department of Defense; bilateral relations and
transnational issues with a regional focus in the Department
of State and on the White House staff; considerations of
economic security, particularly as they influence the domestic
economy, in the National Economic Council supported by
very strong Treasury and Commerce Departments, and the
U.S. Trade Representative; and, issues of environmental
security, in the Office of the Vice President.
When working as the National Security Council,
opinions of cabinet-level representatives of
this structure can only be melded together by the President
himself, not by the National Security Advisor or the White
House Chief of Staff.
Foreign policy issues sometimes seem to be dealt
with as they arise, and seemingly with much more concern for
how they will play at home than their longer term impact
abroad. This is not true in every case, and the Clinton
administration has had some notable successes: agreement
on GATT and NAFTA trade accords; denuclearization in
Russia and Ukraine; extension of security assurances, even
if somewhat weak, eastward into Central Europe by the
Partners for Peace program in NATO; an apparent agreement
with North Korea on plutonium production; and the
reestablishment of the Aristide government in Haiti are
among this administration's successes.
But in other important instances-abandonment of the
original policy of "assertive multilateralism" after a tactical
reversal of several failed policy initiatives in Bosnia; a brief
attempt to denuclearize South Asia; and, before finally acting,
an extended vacillation over what to do about an illegal
regime in Haiti-the process seeks more often a quick
resolution and "victory" for the President than it does to
define and fulfill the longer term role and interests of the
United States in a very disorderly world.
Finally, there is the political situation of the President,
who won only 43 percent of the popular vote running as a
New Democrat in 1992. In addition to dealing with a
Republican majority in Congress, he now must now create
consensus within the Democratic party, since he is largely
opposed in a unified manner by the Republicans except on
issues of international trade. After the first six months, and
particularly after the congressionally mandated withdrawal
from Somalia and the subsequent dismissal of his Secretary
of Defense, the President's foreign policy record has become
a major issue for his opponents.
This was even the more so in June and July 1994
when the President's polls on foreign policy were the worst
ever, showing no boost whatsoever for his participation in
the G-7 summit and his subsequent European tour. Having
now signed and sent to Congress his first formal report of
security strategy, it will be interesting to see if the concern of
one White House staffer will be valid: "To publish a detailed
report of national security strategy now would just provide
chum for the sharks."
This may not, however, be the case. As published, the
Clinton NSSR contains a remarkably different vision of how
to provide for America's "security" in the future. First, the
conception of security is much more broad than used by
earlier administrations. Given the new environment with
apparently no military threats to the nation's physical security,
the administration has defined security as "protecting our
people, our territory, and our way of life." The addition of the
last clause underlines the recognition that the strategy must
be designed as much, if not more, for exploiting "the
opportunities to make the nation more safe and prosperous,"
as it is for protecting it from a new class of "dangers" to its
security. When contrasted to the necessities and burdens of
the Cold War, this seizing of the historical opportunity, and
that based on improving the lot of America's domestic life as
well as promoting its democratic and economic aspects
overseas, is a refreshingly positive and attractive approach.
Further, there is a simple elegance of using only three
national security goals-enhancing our security, promoting
prosperity at home, and promoting democracy-under which to
integrate all of the government's efforts to advance U.S.
interests. Thereby, the many ways in which various means
contribute to these ends and the interrelationships involved
are more readily apparent, as are the trade-offs between
them (to the consternation of some who have for decades
seen their particular contribution to national security as their
undeniable claim on resources!). As conceived and
published, the strategy, for instance, makes clear that the
contribution of various means to provide for "environmental
security" contributes to the first goal -- "enhancing our
security" -- in much the same way as does "maintaining a
strong defense capability."
But, even with this truly post-Cold War conception of
our security coupled with a much more sweeping array of
policy instruments for its pursuit-from population control, to
environmental security, to nonproliferation initiatives--one is
left with the impression that some of the more traditional, but vitally
effective, means of providing for our national security, e.g., nuclear
deterrence, have been inadequately addressed in the strategy.
Equally noticeable by their absence in this globalist approach
are the priorities necessary to make this strategy operative. While
the "engagement' of the United States in the future is "to be
selective," dependent on the intensity of the interest involved, there
is little discussion of how U.S. leadership -- "Never has American
leadership been more essential" -- is to be effective without direct
engagement of our national capabilities, and the specific causes or
regions in which that must be done are not made clear. In fact, the
foreign policy record of the first two years already demonstrates
this to be one of the strategy's major shortcomings.
In the months and years ahead this issue of the
effectiveness of American leadership may well be the linchpin of
any strategic formulation for advancing America's interests in the
world, including this new one by the Clinton administration. There
are several reason for this.
First, allies and friends no longer need our assistance with
their security, or so they perceive and act. As a result, the leverage
that extended deterrence and other strategic arrangements of the
Cold War accrued to our leadership has withered.
Second, the economic aspects of Clinton's foreign policy
may be perceived as intrusive from the perspective of a nation
whose markets we want to be opened to our exports. This has
already caused several former allies and friends to distance
themselves from what they see as economic nationalism, and a
leadership that is fostering it.
Third, America's problems at home, particularly faltering
education, rampant crime and violence, and rising racial divisions
have dimmed the message we send to promote the spread of
democracy abroad. If these are the result of our form of
democracy, as many rising industrial nations believe, we are
promoting a form of cultural imperialism that they can do without.
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