[1] For a brilliant analysis of Russia's institutional incoherence see "Russia Reborn," Economist, Special Section, December 5, 1992, and Vladimir Razuvayev, 'The Superpower Is Gone Forever?," International Affairs, September 1992, p. 51. Regarding the debates over national interest the following are two recent examples of numerous published debates and opinions, "Foreign Policy Council Discusses Russian-CIS Relations," Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Central Eurasia (henceforth FBIS-SOI~, November 23, 1992, pp. 22-23, and Peter Ferdinand, "Russia and Russians After Communism: Western or Eurasian?," World Today, December 1992, pp. 225-229. Another telling illustration of this factor is Serge Schmemann, "Russian Sensitivities," New York Times, January 27,1993, p. A6. [2] As broadcast on Monitor Radio News, December 14, 1992. [3] Press Conference with Senator Sam Nunn (D-GA) and Senator Richard Lugar (R-IN), November 25, 1992, Federal Information Systems Corporation. [4] Monitor Radio News, December 14, 1992, "Rehn, Klenberg on Russian Troop Presence, EC, WEU," Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Western Europe (henceforth FBIS- WE0, December 4,1992, p. 48. [5] "Officials View Suspension of Baltic Troop Withdrawal," Joint Publications Research Service, Military Affairs (henceforth JPRS-UMA), 92-042, November 25, 1992, p. 24. [6] "Churkin on Troop Withdrawal from Estonia, Yeltsin Decree," FBIS-SOV, November 4,1992, p. 16. [7] "Kozyrev Meets With Latvia's Foreign Minister," FBIS-SOV, October 6,1992, p. 13. [8] Yeltsin Addresses Foreign Ministry Collegium," FBIS-SOV, October 27,1992, p. 17; "Criticizes Foreign Ministry," FBIS-SOV, October27,1992, p. 18; Stephen Foye, "Russian Politics Complicates Baltic Troop Withdrawal," Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Research 1, No. 46, November 20, 1992, pp. 30-35. [9] "Yeltsin Orders Foreign Ministry to Coordinate Overall Policy," FBIS-SOV, November 12,1992, pp. 29- 30; "Defense, Foreign Ministry Fail to Coordinate," FBIS-SOV, October 30, 1992, p. 22. [10] Voennaia Mysl' Spetsial'nyi Vypusk, No. 4, May 1992, p. 3. Boldface in original. [11] "Round Table on Russian Security, Political Economic Interests," JPRS-UMA, 92-044, December 9,1992, p. 11; Col. General I.N. Rodionov, "Approaches to Russian Military Doctrine," Voennaia Mysl, No. 7-8, July 1992, pp. 6-7; "National Security Policies Assessed," FBIS-SOV, December 30, 1992, pp. 22-23; Robin F. Laird, "The New East-West Nuclear Challenge: The Dynamics of Change in the Former Soviet Union," Institute for Defense Analysis, Alexandria, VA, August 1992, pp. 12-18. [12] Laird, p. 21. [13] "Gives Conditions on Withdrawal," FBIS-SOV, August 6,1992, p. 13. [14] "Kozyrev Meets With Baltic Foreign Ministers, FBIS-SOV, August 7, 1992, pp. 15-18; "Shelov-Kovedayev Comments on Policy Criticism," FBIS-SOV, August 10, 1992, p. 30; "Defense, Foreign Ministry Fail to Coordinate," p. 30. [15] Phillip A. Petersen, Joshua B. Spero, "Military Reform and the Struggle to Redefine Security in the Post- Soviet Union," in Stephen J. Blank and Jacob W. Kipp, eds., The Soviet Military and the Future, Westport, CT: Greenwood Publishing Group, 1992, pp. 19-47; Risto E.J. Penttila, Finland's Search for Security Through Defence, 1944-1989, New York: St. Martin's Press, 1989, p. 75. [16] Konstantin Isakov, "Dying for Amber," New Times, No. 41,1992, p. 26, where, in writing about Kaliningrad, he quotes the alarmist formulation offered in August 1992, by former Navy CINC Chernavin on his retirement: A military threat still remains in spite of all assertions to the contrary. Given the disintegration of the USSR and the escalation of tensions in various regions of the CIS, it may even be stated that the threat has increased. [17] "Shumeyko on Troop Withdrawal, Economy, Congress of Deputies," FBIS-SOV, November 19,1992, p. 16. [18] "Defense Minister Views Relationship With Russian Army," FBIS-SOV, November 3,1992, p. 75. [19] "Officials View Suspension of Baltic Troop Withdrawals," p. 26. [20] "Yakovlev Discredits Anti-Russian Discrimination," Foreign Broadcast Information Service, Central Eurasia, (henceforth FBIS-USR), January 29, 1993, p. 64, Valentin Alexandrov, "A Mission Abroad-To Latvia, International Affairs, May 1992, p. 60; Steven Erlanger, "Baltic Identity Russians Wonder If They Belong," The New York Times, November 22, 1992, pp. 1, 11; Richard Krickus, "Lithuania: Nationalism in the Modern Era" and Cynthia Kaplan, "Estonia: A Plural Society on the Road to Independence," in Ian Bremmer and Raymond Taras, eds., and Politics in the Soviet Successor States, Robert Conquest, Foreword, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992, pp. 178,181, 215 respectively. [21] Phillip Petersen, "Security Policy in the Post-Soviet Baltic States," European Security, Vol. 1, No. 1, Spring 1992, pp. 15-33. [22] Rowland Evans and Robert Novak, 'Tough Talk in Moscow," The Washington Post, October 28,1992, p. A25. [23] Joseph Stalin, Marxism and the National Question: Selected Speeches, New York: International Publishers, 1942, pp. 76-77. [24] "Russians Arming To Defend Land Against Estonia, Latvia Viewed," FBIS-USR, October 7, 1992,pp. 1-4. [25] Alexandrov, p. 60. [26] "Goodmanis, Gorbunovs Address Envoys on Situation," FBIS-SOV, November 2,1992, p. 83. [2] Paula Goble, "'Serbians' Success Echoes in Russia," The New York Times, August 13,1992, p. A22. [28] Petersen, pp. 15-49; Statement by Lithuanian Defense Minister Butkievichus to the Institute of Defense Analysis, Alexandria, VA, July 22, 1992. [29] "Latvian Chairman Demands Russian Troop Withdrawal," Joint Publications Research Service, Arms Control (henceforth JPRS-TAC), 92-024, August 14,1992, pp. 20-21. [30] Butkievichus Remarks, "Defense Minister Views Relationship," p. 40; "Minister Urges 'Neutralization' of Russian Presence," FBIS-SOV, November 23, 1992, p. 85; "CIS, Baltic States To Be Given Ex-NVA Materiel," FBIS-WEU, January 7,1993, pp. 6-7. [31] Butkievichus Remarks. [32] Daniel Hamilton, "Germany After Unification," Problems of Communism, Vol. XLI, No. 3, May-June 1992, pp. 13-17; "Sweden Says Troop Pullout Not to Be Tied to Minorities," Military and Security Notes, RFE/RL Reports, July 24,1992, p. 60; "Prime Minister Briefs Newsmen on Swedish Premiers Visit," FBIS-SOV, October 29, 1992, p. 68. [33] "Koivisto on Russian Ties, Baltic Troops," FBIS-WEU, July 20, 1992, p. 27. [34] "Baltic Sea Security Cooperation Proposed," FBIS-WEU, July 29, 1992, pp. 37-38. [35] H. Alafik Wachtmeister, "Finland's Choice of the F-1 8 Benefits All of Scandinaviaw Forces Journal International, August 1992, p. 35. [36] "Official Views Relations With Baltic States," Foreign Broadcast Information Service, East Europe (henceforth FBIS-EE0, August 3,1992, pp. 17-18; "Skubiszewski Calls for Action," FBIS- EEU, September 29, 1992, p. 15. [37] Interview with Phillip Petersen, Falls Church, VA. June 1992. [38] "North European, Baltic Leaders Hold Meetings," FBIS-SOV, August 19, 1992, p. 4; "Prime Minister on Talks With Nordic Ministers," FBIS-SOV, August 20,1992, p. 57; "Seminar Ends, Chairman Comments," FBIS-SOV, October 29, 1992, p. 69, George F. Kennan, "For Russian Troops A House to Go Home to," The Washington Post, November 8,1992, p. C7. [39] "Foreign Policy Challenges, Goals Outlined," Joint Publications Research Service, Eastern Europe (henceforth, JPRS-EE0, 92-140, October 1, 1992, pp. 14-15. [40] "Rutskoy Examines Current Political Issues," FBIS-SOV, July 24, 1992, pp. 27-28;'Vice President Rutskoy Interviewed" FBIS-SOV, August 17, 1992, p. 14; "Bronshteyn on Economic Future for Republics," FBIS-USR, June 12,1992, pp. 80-81. [41] "IMF Says Baltic Outlook 'Bleak'," FBIS-USR, June 15, 1992, pp. 74-77. [42] "Financial Drought Blamed on Russia, CIS Unpaid Accounts," FBIS-USR, August 19, 1992, pp. 84-85; "Europe: Baltic States, Latvia's Enterprises Face Threat From Russian Debtors," FBIS-USR, August 15, 1992, p. 82. [43] Goble, p. A22; "Russians Demand New Ties With Moscow," FBIS-USR, July 26, 1992, p. 107; "Unrest Continues in Narva. Area," FBIS-USR, June 15,1992, pp. 85-87. [44] Goble, p. A22. [45] "Prospects for Russian Population Viewed," FBIS-USR, August 15, 1992, p. 85. [46] "Sweden Says Pullout Not to Be Tied to Minorities," p. 60. [47] "Ambartsumov Foreign Policy Concept Viewed," FBIS-SOV, August 13, 1992, p. 58; "MFA Official on Nationalism, European Security," FBIS-USR, August 12,1992, p. 58. [48] "Troops in Estonia Still'Showing Restraint'," FBIS-USR, August 7, 1992, p. 9. [49] "Kozyrev Withdrawal Statement Said 'Unacceptable,"' FBIS-SOV, August 14,1992, p. 55; "Latvia," FBIS-SOV, August 17,1992, p. 41. [50] Don Oberdorfer, "A Sudden Cold War Scare," The Washington Post, December 15,1992, p. Al. [51] Jim Hoagland, "The Baltics: The Mice That Roar," The Washington Post, June 4, 1992, p. A29. [52] Penttila, pp. 31-40; "NATO General Stresses Good Relations With Russia," FBIS-SOV, October 14, 1992, pp. 64-65; John Lukacs, "Finland Vindicated," Foreign Affairs, Vol. LXXI, No. 4, Fall, 1992, pp. 50-63; Tomas Ries, Cold Will. The Defense of Finland, London: Brassey's Defense Publishers, 1988, pp. 228-229. [53] See the statements coming from the 1991 Moscow CSCE conference cited in Jenonne Walker, "Avoiding Risk and Responsibility: The United States and Eastern Europe," Current History, Vol. XCI, No. 568, November 1992, p. 337. [54] "Results of Russian-Latvian Intergovernmental Talks," Current Digest of the Soviet Press (henceforth CDSP), Vol. XLIV, No. 29, August 19,1992, p. 20. [55] "Russian Official on Baltic Withdrawal Talks," FBIS-SOV, August 24, 1992, pp. 4-5; "Nato General Stresses Good Relations With Russia," pp. 64-65. [56] In 1991 he stated, apropo of the Russian diaspora, It is the duty of Russia somehow to help them. But understand me: It is impossible to defend people with tanks. After that, their lives would be more complicated. It is necessary to put our relations with those republics on a juridical foundation, one of international rights, which we are presently doing. In that case, any fact of discrimination against the Russian populace on the part of another republic can be juridically resolved, and we can apply sanctions against this or that republic or state. For example, we have concluded treaties with Latvia and Estonia, and they are now amending their laws in a number of instances-- It is unlikely that he has changed his mind on this issue. Were he free to do so he would likely accept this deal especially if it had foreign support and the threat of 'sanctions' otherwise was credible. Quoted in John Dunlop, "Russia: Confronting a Loss of Empire," in Bremmer and Taras, p. 53. [57] "NATO General Stresses Good Relations With Russia," pp. 64-65. [58] "Prime Minister Briefs Newsmen," p. 68; John G. Heidenrich, "A Good-Neighbor Policy With Teeth," Army, September 1992, pp. 14-18, 32. Back to Table of Contents Russia and the Baltic Is There a Threat to European Security? Back to SSI List of Issues Back to MagWeb Magazine List © Copyright 1993 by US Army War College. This article appears in MagWeb (Magazine Web) on the Internet World Wide Web. Other articles from military history and related magazines are available at http://www.magweb.com