Any political solution to the disputes between Russia and the Baltic states must also settle economic and border claims on both sides. These two aspects of Russo-Baltic relations intensify the crisis precipitated by the issue of troop withdrawals. Russia's Parliament and Vice-President Aleksandr' Rutskoi are already urging sanctions against Estonia due to its citizenship laws. Russia's market reforms inevitably will also have an unintended secondary and negative impact on the Baltic states. For instance, if and when Russia charges world prices in convertible currency for its energy exports to the Baltic states, it could cripple their economies while complying with virtually unanimous Western recommendations for economic reform. Those urging economic warfare follow the Soviet tradition of seeing Russo-Baltic relations as a zero-sum game, a viewpoint that alarms the Baltic states and economists who understand how much both sides gain from mutual amity. [40] The Baltic states are vulnerable to tariff wars, energy shutdowns or Russian changes to currency convertibility because they have delayed their own reforms. A recent IMF study illustrated the extent to which they are hostage to Russian policy. [41] Should the right wingers win, there is little doubt they would use economic instruments. For example, Russian factories already are in arrears on debts owed to Baltic factories. Those factories, to recover any of their losses, can then be forced to accept payment in rubles and exist within the ruble zone thereby becoming vulnerable to sanctions. [42] Failure to resolve economic issues only intensifies Russian fears about the impending consequences of future Baltic reforms and contributes to the movement by heavily Russified areas like Estonia's Narva District and the areas between Knigisepp Raion of St. Petersburg and parts of Pskov Oblast to secede from Estonia to Russia. Estonia claims that these areas belonged to it and that they were recognized by the Soviet state in their 1920 treaty, but Moscow rejects those claims. Russian agitation, threats of strikes, brown-outs, and demands for secession of these areas and merger with Russia are becoming more strident, especially as agitation from Moscow stimulates existing fears that already are quite high. 13 The worst fanatics on both sides call for something like ethnic cleansing thereby aggravating tensions. [44] The deliberate incitement of nationalist enmities and fears by both sides that took place as negotiations reached the present impasse also suggests a larger campaign of deliberate psychological warfare. [45] Should this campaign go further and nationalist forces dominate, the results could be very nasty indeed. Back to Table of Contents Russia and the Baltic Is There a Threat to European Security? Back to SSI List of Issues Back to MagWeb Magazine List © Copyright 1993 by US Army War College. This article appears in MagWeb (Magazine Web) on the Internet World Wide Web. Other articles from military history and related magazines are available at http://www.magweb.com