by Thomas-Durrell Young
At the outset, it needs to be understood that Washington has available to it limited options. The litany of real and perceived differences that exist between these two countries, within the context of a long past history of enmity, is not a situation easily mitigated by any outside state. Nonetheless, in view of the present ongoing changes taking place in Europe, there are possibilities to exert U.S. influence in the areas of security which could contribute to a rapprochement in Franco-German relations. Specifically, possible areas for U.S. attention relate to the ongoing study to reorganize NATO military structures and the perennially divisive (if not indeed, "Politically in-Correct") out-of-area issue. Reforming NATO's Command and Control Structure Regarding French and German perceptions of NATO, both
can be said to have had almost mutually exclusive stands regarding
Paris' position in the Alliance. The Federal Republic has long
attempted to encourage the French to reenter NATO wartime
command and control arrangements and structures (and thereby
increase their conventional defense of Germany), just as Paris
assiduously has refrained from acquiescing to Bonn's initiatives.
Indeed, one of the principal rationales behind the Federal
Republic's support for bilateral security ties with France has been
to attempt to draw Paris back into NATO structures.
[19]
Within the context of the reform of NATO's strategy, force
structures, and wartime command and control arrangements, it is
apparent that Bonn is very keen to remain within NATO. No major
political party in the Federal Republic advocates either its leaving
the alliance, or the immediate removal of alliance forces from its
soil. [20]
Continued membership in NATO contains the assurance
to Bonn's neighbors that the Bundeswehr will remain firmly
integrated within NATO wartime command and control structures,
thereby vitiating the need to create a Generalstab and associated
national command and control structures (not to mention national
war planning above corps level) with all the emotional sensitivities
such acts would produce in Europe. Moreover, one needs to recall
that the Soviet Western Group of Forces, with its approximately
300,000 Soviet soldiers (plus dependents), will remain on the
territory of the Federal Republic until the end of 1994. Should
tensions develop while these forces are in the process of
withdrawing from the Federal Republic, the deterrent value of
NATO forces is incalculable. Thus, despite Chancellor Kohl's
support for political integration within the EC, it is clear that Bonn
continues to see its basic security requirements being met by
continued membership in NATO, as opposed to the EC or the
WEU.
This position, of course, places France in a difficult
dilemma. One would suspect that the rationales for Paris to rejoin
NATO structures would be strong. Reentry into some NATO
command and control structures would enable France to work to
ensure that the Federal Republic remains enmeshed in Western
security structures and the United States maintains
its military presence on the continent. Unfortunately, such
options are extremely sensitive political issues in a country
that continues to adhere publicly to Gaullist defense tenets
of independence. While in recent years this "independence"
has been shown to be rather qualified, it nonetheless
remains an important domestic political factor.
[21]
It should not be surprising, therefore, that some
within the French defense establishment during Jean-Pierre
Chevenement's tenure as Defense Minister were
reassessing the possibility of reentry into NATO structures.
This has coincided with the ongoing NATO strategy review,
in which France moved in March 1991 to participate.
[22]
While it is not yet known what Defense Minister
Pierre Joxe's position is on this issue, let alone President
Mitterrand's, whose ultimate authority in diplomacy and
defense is supreme under the terms of the Constitution of
the Fifth Republic, it is evident that France will not make a
significant move until such time that the governing political
realities are clear, prior to committing itself to any
reintegration. One can be assured that in view of the
historical sensitivity of this issue (one should recall that the
Mendes-France Government fell in February 1954 in part
over the issue of French participation in the European
Defense Community), [23] it is still an open question whether France will rejoin
a reformed NATO command and control structure.
It is within the context of alliance reform that U.S.
efforts could contribute to France's reentry into alliance
structures. While it would not be prudent, nor is it likely, for
the alliance to concede to France's every wish, there are
symbolic and actual reforms to be offered. For instance, it is
not widely understood outside of the Francophone world that
the term "I'OTAN" has taken on a considerable pejorative
connotation over the years. While it is not being proposed
that the term "NATO" ought to be dropped completely, it may
be worthwhile to consider different nomenclature for
elements of the alliance which are to be reformed. In other
words, the United States and its allies could make it easier
for French officials to sell to la classe politique, reentry to
these structures, if it could be demonstrated that Paris was
not rejoining the same alliance structures General de Gaulle
rejected in 1966.
It could well turn out that the present time is an auspicious
time for France to rejoin NATO wartime command and control
structures in view of the fact that the existing arrangements within
NATO could be altered following the conclusion of the ongoing
strategy review process. It is simply too early to speculate
accurately as to what type of documents will replace MC 14/3 and
MC 48/3, which embody the alliance's strategy of flexible
response. [24]
Nonetheless, security conditions point toward the
possibility of reforming military structures which could be
acceptable to France, particularly in regard to command and
control arrangements. Moreover, one should not conclude that
Paris is totally intransigent concerning command and control
matters. In the Persian Gulf War, for example French forces;
naval, air and ground, were "chopped" to U.S. allied commanders
during the conflict. Conversely, French forces were given
operational control over U.S. forces during certain periods in the
campaign. [25]
Thus, Paris may be more accepting of allied command
and control arrangements under the right circumstances than
previously thought.
Indeed, it is difficult to accept how NATO's existing
command and control arrangements can escape what could be
substantial change. It is clear that there will be fewer in-place
national corps in Central Europe over the coming years; from a
current level of eight down to six main defense corps, in addition to
the Rapid Reaction Corps. The Bundeswehr alone is to lose three
or four divisions by 1994 and reduce its ground forces to 370,000
personnel within a three corps structure which will be integrated
with the Territorial Army. [26]
In such a situation, the creation of multinational corps and
in consequence, the likely dissolution of the "layer-cake" forward
deployment of forces in Germany concept, will produce new and
different command and control requirements.
[27]
Should a strategy be adopted by the alliance based upon
"reconstitution," then it is possible to loosen existing command and
control arrangements. For instance, one could envisage future
NATO command and control arrangements in wartime being
developed to match the operational tasks and forces chopped to
allied commanders, as opposed to predetermined structures.
Examples of such structures include command and control defined
by functional, specialized and maneuver
requirements, as opposed to solely geographical. Should
Washington decide that having France back in the military
structure of the alliance is worth the cost of a looser command and
control structure and the Soviet military threat continues to
diminish in immediacy, encouraging France to join in the
redefinition of NATO's military structures could provide the
necessary impetus for France to reintegrate itself into NATO.
President Mitterrand's April 13, 1991 speech to the Ecole de
Guerre where he acknowledged that "for the present and for many
years to come, Western Europe's defense can only be envisaged
in the context of respect for the Atlantic Alliance," obviously points
toward a new approach by Paris toward NATO; albeit many difficult
obstacles remain to be overcome.
[28]
The Out-of-Area Issue
If Paris is guilty of over-sensitivity regarding defense
independence, than Bonn is culpable of being politically unable to
accept responsibility for out-of-area security responsibilities.
Chancellor Kohl has publicly committed himself to allow
Bundeswehr forces to be sent outside the European theater in the
future [29] and the
deployment of German forces to Iran in April 1991 would appear to
have created a needed precedent for such operations.
[30]
Notwithstanding these events, Bonn's position toward out-
of-area issues will surely remain a sensitive political issue. This is
unfortunate for a number of reasons, not the least being that
German views are increasingly not being mirrored.
[31]
by its traditional allies. Population growth that far outstrips industrial
expansion has sent a surge of Arabs to Europe in search of jobs
now being taken by equally desperate, but more welcome (vide
Christian), East Europeans who are willing to integrate themselves
into European society.
At the same time, West European investment and aid are
being redirected eastward, leaving North African countries as an
inrxeasingly destitute playground for radical anti-Western
fundamentalists and pan-Arab nationalists with increasing access
to long-range weapons of mass destruction. This situation is
widely recognized in France as posing a potentially serious threat
to French security. [32]
Any meaningful bilateral security relationship between Paris
and Bonn must have provisions for meeting these potential threats
jointly.
In view of the commitment by Chancellor Kohl to seek
alteration of the Basic Law, it would appear safe to assume that
the Federal Republic's response to the Persian Gulf War was sui
generis. It is simply asking to much too assume that a
CDU/CSU/FDP coalition, and perhaps in time even a SPD-led
coalition government, would refuse to send forces to a conflict on
the periphery in the future. If anything is certain, Bonn will be
unlikely to attempt to "buy" its way out of a future campaign in light
of the Persian Gulf experience where allied criticism of German
policy increased as financial contributions to the war effort rose.
[33]
Notwithstanding the immense domestic economic
challenges and security problems which exist in eastern Germany
(i.e., the continued presence of the Soviet Western Group of
Forces), nor to ignore the severe sensitivity in the country
concerning the use of military force, future governments will surely
be more receptive to participation with traditional allies in such
conflicts. After all, to refuse to act in these campaigns is nothing
less than an act of self-singularization and hardly in accord with
attempts to forge unified diplomatic and security policies within the
EC.
At the same time, it must be acknowledged that the
prospect of equipping even a small element of the Bundeswehr for
self-supported and sustained operations outside of central Europe
could not be directed at the Federal Defense Ministry at a worse
time. Simply stated, power projection and accompanying requisite
combat support and logistic support are expensive capabilities. At
present, the Bundeswehr is confronted with the requirement to
reduce personnel levels from its current size of 515,000 to 370,000
by the end of 1994, in accordance with the provisions of the Soviet-
German agreement reached between Chancellor Kohl and
President Gorbachev at Stavropol in July and codified by treaty in
September 1990. [34]
The Federal Defense Ministry is also faced with the
challenge of planning for the defense of the new Laender of the
Federal Republic, without NATO forces stationed in the east. One
can safely conclude, therefore, that it is unlikely that the
Bundeswehr will be in the position to equip and train itself
unilaterally for these types of campaigns outside the Central
Region for some time. [35]
Nevertheless, press reports of Bonn's intentions to create a
three brigade (with air
support) force, to be contributed to a proposed NATO rapid action
force, is clearly a step in the right direction.
[36]
Concurrently, other options for a multinational approach to
these types of conflicts appear to be limited for a variety of political
reasons. Despite the fact that NATO is in the midst of what could
be fundamental reform and perhaps in search of new missions in
the post-cold war world, it could prove to be fruitless to press fdr
the formal inclusion within the alliance of
out-of-area responsibilities.
[37]
There is too much emotional baggage in Europe which will
work against such an eventuality and indeed, it is unwarranted.
The final chapter on the history of the cold war has yet to be written
and the events in the Baltic Republics of the Soviet Union during
winter 1990 point toward the likelihood that NATO will continue to
have considerable relevance in its traditional role to its members
for some time to come. [38]
Thus, given the importance of maintaining consensus for
the continuation of NATO on its most important mission,
introducing such a divisive issue as out-of-area responsibilities
could be counterproductive, especially at a time when the alliance
is undergoing review.
Short of creating some new security organization that will
deal with the issue of extra-regional security, it becomes apparent
that the WEU is the appropriate forum in which to deal with these
issues. As the sole Western European organization that 1)
concerns itself with its members' security, and 2) is interested in
dealing with the out-of-area, the WEU is well situated to play a
leading role in addressing its members' security concerns.
[39]
If one assumes that the WEU is the appropriate
organization to direct Western European engagement in out-of-area operations, a major problem becomes apparent in regard to
what roles the United States and NATO are to play. In addition, it is
necessary to define what types of cooperation and planning are
politically acceptable and militarily sufficient.
In terms of institutional structure, it would appear to be
reasonable that, at a very minimum, a formal liaison relationship
and joint military body need to be created between NATO and the
WEU. There are a number of reasons for this. First, it would
enable the Western Alliance to benefit from an
enormous amount of military expertise that exists in NATO,
without necessitating replication. To be sure, power
projection and sustainment over potentially vast distances
are not areas with which NATO has overly concerned itself,
and would require substantial doctrinal and conceptual
assistance from the United States, the United Kingdom and
France. [40]
Nonetheless, the basis for cooperation and coordination
between defense forces exists within NATO and should be
utilized. Second, a joint institutional arrangement would not
limit either of these two bodies from engaging in
reorganization and reform, at the moment or in the future.
Both organizations play important roles in their respective
principal areas of responsibility and should not be hindered
in any way from reforming themselves to meet changing
security and political conditions.
The basic purpose of achieving a liaison between
these two organizations would be to allow for the WEU to
provide the necessary political framework for its members to
engage in out-of-area operations, while largely employing
existing NATO expertise. It is interesting to note that in spite
of the WEU's strong interest in out-of-area contingencies
however, its membership does not include NATO members
outside of the Central Region, i.e., Norway, Denmark,
Greece, and Turkey. This would not present any major legal
or political impediments since one of the purposes of
creating a joint liaison body betweed NATO and the WEU
would be to enable participation by NATO members who are
not part of the WEU.
Such a proposal, therefore, could have the character
of serving as a catalyst for further defense integration among
Western European nations, thereby lending support to two of
Bonn's long-term objectives: furthering European
integration, while maintaining the trans-Atlantic link. Since a
wartime command and control structure would not have to be
predetermined prior to an agreement by the participants to
deploy forces, this structure would not have the same
political baggage that alienated France from military
integration in the Western Alliance in the past. Finally, in view
of Paris' interest in out-of-area threats to its security, a
strong case could be
made to encourage France to take a leading role in the
establishment and development of this liaison body.
Indeed, to ensure a definite WEU "flavor" to this combined
structure (which may be essential for its acceptance), it would be
wise to limit the planning headquarters' staff to seconded field
grade officers from WEU members. In time of crisis, the staff
would be complemented by personnel seconded from participating
states and these officers would take the lead in planning and
operations specific to the contingency. The small permanent staff
would act as custodians of alliance interoperability with the task of
simply maintaining and testing it through periodic exercises, and, in
crisis, providing a basis for expansion.
This cadre staff could also prepare force tailored packages
to operate in various conditions, e.g., desert, jungle, over-the-
beach, airmobile, airborne, etc. It may also be wise to have this
body serve as the planning headquarters above a rapid reaction
corps, made up of WEU members, whose creation has been
suggested by that organization's Secretary General, Dr. Willem
van Eekelen.. [41] It could
also thwart French efforts in particular to create an out-of-area
military formation, exclusive of U.S. participation.
[42]
As regards the actual type of military planning that would
facilitate future joint responses to out-of-area contingencies, very
little would be required. As long as the NATO military structure
continues in existence and allied forces conduct regular field
training, command post, and logistics exercises, the actual military
requirements of this joint NATO-WEU body would be very modest.
What could be required, and this could be easily carried out within
existing NATO structures and programs, would be to hold more air-transportable/airmobile and amphibious maneuvers, as well as
logistics projection and sustainment exercises among countries
possessing these capabilities. Wherever possible, existing NATO
procedures, standards and methods would be employed to avoid
duplicating efforts within the alliance and adding a needless new
layer of procedures to be employed by allied defense forces.
It needs to be clearly understood, and would have to be
carefully explained to the publics of alliance members, that
participation in developing this type of planning methodology would
not by any means imply a nation's precommitment to support a
specific out-of-area campaign. Rather, it would enable the alliance
members' armed forces to have an existing military capability to
conduct joint operations in instances where the political leadership
of each country felt its national interests so dictated. One would
think that these projection and sustainment capabilities would
complement current thinking in NAT043 which is attempting to
direct more attention to the security requirements of the flank
countries which have not seen any diminution in the Soviet military
threat. With few, if any, exceptions, the requirements for
campaigns on the flanks would be very similar to out-of-area
requirements, as recently suggested by Admiral Dieter
Wellershoff. [44]
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