As a general rule of thumb, there is a direct relationship between a game’s rarity and the amount of money it will command on the open market. Greater rarity results in greater current market value, the law of supply and demand has been satisfied yet again, capitalism triumphs, and opportunists live to profit another day.

But (I bet you could hear that coming a mile away) there is a phenomenon that occurs at one extreme of the rarity scale. Some games that are exceedingly rare do not command a commensurately large amount, and in fact may often be bought for next to nothing. This phenomenon I call Berg’s Paradox, in honor of the gentleman who first brought it to my attention. (The corollary at the other extreme, where an excessive amount of money is paid for a common game, I call Einhorn’s Folly, for reasons best kept to myself.)

Berg’s Paradox is based on the hypothesis that some games are so rare as to be basically unknown, to the point that the supply, incredibly limited though it may be, still surpasses demand, which may in fact be non-existent.

This is not an isolated or unique instance of such a phenomenon, and in fact an entire field of science, Chaos Theory, was developed to deal with, among other things, changes in predicted behavior at the extremes. Small consolation, to be sure, but better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.

The paradox may be in the way we perceive and define rare. Rare is not an intrinsic quality like Napoleonic or hex-based or tactical. We are used to calling games rare because so few were ever published, or because so few seem to remain in existence, but perhaps such rare games are not really all that rare. The concept of rarity encompasses more than just quantity (Oxford English Dictionary: “seldom occurring or found”); it also captures the notion of distinctiveness (OED: “marked by unusual quality, merit or appeal” and “superlative or extreme of its kind”). Thus a truly rare game is not just any game with a print run under 150 copies. It must have one or more additional characteristics that are both distinctive and desirable. Quality of components can be overlooked if the subject matter is unique or its treatment is innovative. Die-cut, mounted counters can be traded off for rules that are simple, elegant and errata-free. And (it seems, with very few exceptions) almost everything else can be tolerated if the manufacturer is SPI.

It would seem that any games produced in quantities of less than 500 are not so much rare as they are simply unknown to a majority of the general wargame collecting population, and so this would seem to be the critical mass for a game to achieve sufficient notoriety. Take the following list, for example:

Destruction of SPI Center (Greg Costikyan) ~100
Civil Power (Strategy Gaming Society) under 125
Shining Path (Strategy Gaming Society) under 125
Tupamaro (Strategy Gaming Society) under 125
Hell’s Foxes (Strategy Gaming Society) ~200
Trafalgar (Roger Cormier) ~450
Bay of Pigs (Jim Bumpas) under 500
Tatchanka (Jim Bumpas) under 500
Rommel in the Desert (Game Preserve - 1ed) ~800
Rommel in the Desert (Columbia Games - 2ed) 5,000

I can assure you that all of those games exist, either because I have seen them with my own eyes, or because Greg Costikyan fessed up to me. And the print run numbers come from impeccable sources. There are others, just as rare. So what does the price paid for a game on the open market reflect? All that can be said with certainty is that it reflects current demand.

And how does this relate to Berg’s Paradox? Well, if the general population of wargame collectors is unfamiliar with the game and knows nothing about it, there is no demand and a high asking price will not be met. A game must not only be rare in the sense of being uncommon, but it must also be known to at least two people, other than the seller, both of whom are intent on acquiring it at any price.

This is where Simulacrum comes in. We seek to identify all of these numerically rare games, obtain and review them, and determine whether they are truly rare, or deserve to languish in obscurity. There are still many people extant who were involved with the hobby from its start in the 1950’s, but in one more generation those first-hand memories will be gone. If you have any stories to tell, or own one or more games that would qualify as a Berg’s Paradox, I encourage you to consider contacting Simulacrum so that the knowledge and information can be made available to others.