12 January 2002. Our Far Eastern Representative sends us the gist of the CIA report on the future of Chinese ICBMs. Sankei Shimbun printed a comment by a Russian expeM a former Major General of the Strategic Missile Force and he says that the U.S. decision to walk out of the ABM Treaty will prompt the Chinese to increase the number of their ICBMs capable of reaching the United States from the current twenty to more than 100 by the year 2010. China fears that the U.S. BMD (Ballistic Missile Defense), if perfected, will render their small number of ICBMs totally ineffective. This will force the Chinese to change their principal military target from Taiwan to the United States. The Chinese will certainly try to equip their missiles with MIRV warheads.

"The Chinese will increase their present ICBM force of 20 units to 75 to 100 units by the year 2015. North Korea and Iran will possess ICBMs capable of reaching the US by that year. most of the Chinese ICBMs will be mobile units. North Korea has pledged to halt ICBM firing tests until the year 2003, but the development of TEPODON II units capable of reaching the USA is continuing. There is an embargo on Iraq for the import of missile components, but if it should succeed in obtaining components, it has the capability of producing ICBMs capable of reaching the US in a very short time."