In the 'Warfare' rules the results of melee combat, where highly volatile moral factors reign supreme, are considerably more deterministic than those of missile combat, where outcomes are overwhelmingly determined by unvarying factors such as range, volume of fire, and the density and armor of the target unit. This can be attributed to the fact that while one or two random die rolls are made per unit in melee combat, in missile combat, a separate die is rolled for each firing stand. The results of melee combat are also more predictable because the 2D6 numbers generated by the opposing players' random die rolls create a bell curve wherein extreme outcomes are marginal probabilities. Missile combat, on the other hand, employs 'unopposed' 1D10 rolls that yield far more unpredictable results, since each firing stand has an equal probability of rolling any number in the full range between 1 and 10.

In short, missile fire is a far more 'dicey' proposition than melee combat, although logically it seems that it should be the other way around. Furthermore, under the existing system, the larger the firing unit, the more likely it is to go Low on or Out of Missiles. For those, such as myself, who prefer more deterministic missile fire outcomes and ammo depletion, I offer the following alternate system. It is designed to mirror the melee combat procedure as closely as possible while retaining as much as possible of the existing missile combat system.

1. Determine Base Missile Factor

Measure the distance between the firing and target units to determine if the shooting is taking place at Close, Effective, or Long range. This determines the Base Missile Factor as follows:

5 Close
3 Effective
1 Long

Rationale: The values assigned to the Base Missile Factor correspond to the percent chance of achieving a hit using the existing system. That is, 6+ (50%) at close range, 8+ (30%) at effective range, and 10+ (10%) at long range.

2. Random Factor

Both players roll half a 1D6. The target player's roll is subtracted from the firing player's roll and the result is added to or subtracted from the Base Missile Factor. If a single firing unit is shooting at more than one enemy target unit, it uses the same random factor roll for all. Rationale: Since missile fire is more deterministic than melee combat, 1D3 is rolled rather than 1D6 in order to limit the range of potential outcomes.

3. Other Modifiers

Apply all existing modifiers to the modified Base Missile Factor exactly as normal except that all negative modifiers become positive values and vice versa. Rationale: The modifiers are reversed because in the existing missile fire system beneficial modifiers have negative values, pushing down the number that must be rolled greater than or equal to in order to get a hit. Under the alternative system, beneficial modifiers must have positive values in order to increase the Missile Factor.

4. Determine Firing Stands

Determine how many stands in the firing unit are eligible to shoot at the particular target unit. This is done exactly as in the existing system.

5. Calculate Final Missile Factor

Multiply the number of firing stands by the modified Missile Factor to determine the Final Missile Factor. Unlike melee combat, the modified factor may be zero (or less); there is no automatic minimum 10% chance per stand of inflicting a casualty. Divide the Final Missile Factor by 10 to determine how many casualties are inflicted. For example, if the Final Missile Factor is 14, one casualty has been inflicted automatically and there is a 40% chance of inflicting another. However, the number of casualties inflicted can never exceed the number of firing stands.

6. Die Roll

The firing player rolls 1D10 to determine whether or not a fractional casualty is inflicted. However, this roll is made even if there is no chance of inflicting a fractional casualty, because on a roll of '10' the firing unit goes Low on Missiles (or goes Out of Missiles if it's already low).

EXAMPLE

A six-stand unit of English longbowmen is firing at a unit of charging French knights (shielded AC) in Conrois at close range. The British player's random factor roll is 5, and the French player's random roll is 1. The missile factor is calculated as follows:

+5 Base Missile Factor
+3 Half the British random roll, rounded up.
-1 Half the French random roll, rounded up.
+1 Target in Conrois.
+1 Longbow firing at non-skirmish cavalry.
+1 Firing unit has 4 figures per stand.
-1 Target is charging.
-1 Target is shielded.
-2 Target is Armored.

Thus, the modified missile factor is 6. Multiplying this by 6 firing stands yields a final missile factor of 36. Dividing by 10 reveals that 3 automatic casualties are inflicted with a 60% chance of inflicting a fourth.

Note that is the best possible outcome for the English. If, however, the random rolls had been reversed, then the final missile factor would have been only 12 (modified missile factor of 2 multiplied by 6 firing stands).