Quite some time ago, I wrote about the goddess of fortune spitting on players--the issue of die rolls, luck and so forth. This time I want to address a subset of that group of players--those who cannot handle variable entry.

Specifically, this came up when a player was worried Montgomery's 8th Army might never arrive in Tunisia or might arrive on the very first roll. His concern was that this variability would greatly affect the game's outcome.

For those of you without the game, the 8th Army arrives on a two-dice die roll of 9 or more starting on the 15 February turn. With the expected value (in sums) of a nine or better roll being 3.6 turns (rounded to 4), you can expect Monty to arrive when or near when he did historically.

I designed the game to handle the entry of the 8th Army whenever it happens. I have seen it arrive on the first roll, but have yet to hear of any game that managed to run out the remaining 30 or so turns without hitting the 28% chance of a 9 or more. Nevertheless, as an absolute assurance for those who feel that statistics lie, there is an option available whereby the 8th Army arrives on time like one of Mussolini's trains.

Now, this player did not want to hear about the option; he wanted a sliding scale of die rolls (12 on the first turn, then 11-12, then 10-12, and so on) so that he could have variability, but without the possibility for a force simply not to show up, (something that never happens on the battlefield, of course [sarcasm]...). He wanted a kinder, gentler form of variability--one that can mildly affect you but won't ever hurt too badly--pure milksop drivel.

Life isn't fair; life is tough. Sometimes bad things happen. Sometimes the troops you were counting on do not show up. Sometimes the Luftwaffe sends a Ju-52 to Stalingrad loaded to the gills with condoms. By the end of the game, the probability of not getting the army is less than 1 in a 1,000. Generally, the 8th Army will enter right around the historical time, give or take a turn or so--that is what variability is all about! Yes, there is a slim chance it might never show and, yes, it might show up a whole 4 turns early (be still my beating heart)! So, you cannot count on it precisely and that is the whole purpose of variability.

The player's point was that he did not want to lose the game based on a die roll. Right, as if the entire tide of fortune in a fifty hour game can hang on a single bad or good roll. It is too bad there are players who think this way. So, if the Allies get lucky and get the 8th Army early, the extra three turns will decide the game? Nobody who has seen the 8th Army in action should think so. If the Allies get unlucky and never get the army in, it will not be a loss based on a die roll--not one anywayÄbut a loss based on some 30 die rolls. I am sorry if you cannot make a 1 in 3 shot in 30 tries, maybe you deserve to lose--perhaps you should have kicked the Axis in the rear end with the other army you have!

Sorry, I don't buy it. I have heard too many players tell me about die rolls and how they made or broke the game for them. I suppose their bad planning and poorer execution had nothing to do with it. We have all seen the player who makes a stupid attack hoping his the dice will pull it off for him, and then complains when they did not give him the required 11 or better. Quality play can make up for large numbers of bad die rolls--quality play avoids situations where the fate of the game hangs by the thread of a single roll. I prefer to beat the hell out of my opponents, with the help of the dice or in spite of them. Luck comes in equal portions to us all (go ahead, shake your head) and the better gamer will come through in spite of his ups and downs--not because of them.