State of the Hobby

Folks always ask me how the hobby looks these days. They want to know how healthy it is, are things looking up or down, and so on. Sometimes, they come into the discussion looking to hear that it is as bad as they think it is-I habitually disappoint these guys with my optimism. Other times, they are just curious and wonder how their view of the hobby (based on a few close friends, their opinions and experiences) compares with the view I get from Homer (every day I get comments from a dozen or more gamers around the globe).

In the past few months I witnessed a baseless argument on a computer network accusing the hobby of dying a slow, inevitable death. (Boy, this stuff gets old; it seems some people revel in doom.) I think it's about time to clear up some things.

Mainstream???

This is a niche hobby, a niche industry, a niche market. For some reason, there are those who think it has (or had) the potential a] of becoming a mainstream industry (perhaps of the size of plastic models). Guess what ... it won't and it can't. Does that matter? Personally, I run a small game manufacturing company with several full-time employees, and we are quite happy being a niche manufacturer. We make enough profit to be comfortable (too much according to our accountants) and there is no reason for disappointment that we do not give the soap industry a run for its money.

Many make doom predictions based on a perceived "complete lack of new players." They've played games with the guy down the block since high school and he just keeps getting older. However, the many recent calls from new players (yes, that's right, NEW players-even the 14-year-old variety some assume to be extinct) and those returning from long sabbaticals indicate that rumors of the hobby's demise are greatly exaggerated. Will there be enough new wargamers to bring back the so-called "glory days"? I doubt it. but there will be enough to be stable.

The Good Ol' Days

One of the great misunderstandings in our hobby is that there were "hundreds o' thousands" of wargamers in the 1970s and they have all left now. Those "glory day" figures stem from two factors. There was some heavy guessing that went something like this: multiply magazine sales by a supposed number of "readers"six people play games together, three subscribe to the mag, all six borrow issues from each other, so the number of "readers" is six and the number in the group is 18, right? Also, many who may have subscribed to S&T were more interested in Sci-Fi or Fantasy games (SPI made them too, remember). Those folks (counted several times over as "wargamers") drifted into their original interests when new games came along that fulfilled their needs-RPGs and the like. At any rate, the point is that the difference in the number of guys playing real board wargames is not as large as you might think.

Fragmentation

It seems that a major concern is the hobby fragmenting into Gamers gamers, GMT gamers, and so on. This is not the case. Some people think that if you combined the mailing lists of three wargame companies, you would have a single list with three times as many names. No way. There are some guys who dedicate all their purchases to a single company (we have our share of those, as do the other companies), but most still spread their purchases around based on topic, quality, and price. I'd estimate the overlap between the different manufacturers at 80% or more.

Little Companies vs. Big

Another issue seems to be a concern that the companies today are too small to survive poor economic times ( ... they can take fewer "hit points" than larger firms). The front-runners today (The Gamers, Clash of Arms, GMT, XTR) have even been insultingly referred to as "munchkins feeding on the bones of a once-great hobby." The suggestion is that we really need a big number 2 player (presumably still looking on Avalon Hill as number one ... which might be in doubt these days). Correct me if I'm wrong, but the last time we had a "big number 2 player," it went under, and it took some 10 years to rebuild from the wreckage. Quite frankly, SPI's poor management almost took the hobby down with it.

Back to the "munchkins"; the existence of several smaller firms is insurance against that sort of calamity happening again. Each little company has a different slant, style, topic preference, and managerial skill. A downturn in sales will affect each a little differently. Weak companies might go under while stronger ones continue-and there seems no shortage of new guys who want to try their hand at it, either. It is harder to kill a population than an individual, and that is for the good of the hobby's continued existence.

Summary

The hobby is a healthy niche market of some 10-20,000 players. It is sufficient to allow full-time industry workers (I can point to several of us in our office/warehouse alone). It cannot become a mainstream hobby, but that should not be a concern. Finally, the number of players is either stable (enough coming in to replace those drifting off) or slowly growing. There are many exciting aspects to the hobby these days, and it is shocking how quickly opinion went from gloom to the "second golden age" and back to gloom again. Relax and enjoy a game with a friend.