We have all seen the guy who can't roll dice. You know, the one who needs to hit a 4 or more on two dice and invariably rolls a 2 or 3. These guys are "mechanically challenged" when it comes to dice, and are not the subject of this editorial. I have come to write about those who are "probability challenged".

What is it that makes a player Probability Challenged (Prob C)? It is an unwillingness to believe probability works, an underlying inability to appreciate the degree of chance involved in something. For instance, there is the guy who gets the grand opportunity to be the one in 30,000 and will walk around thinking if he plays the game again, it will happen again. Another case would be a player who refuses to get into a game because there is a chance of some oddball event happening-an oddball event or series of occurrences that might strike one game in a couple of million.

A more specific example might be the variable entry in Thunder II. Players have often wondered why there is no accumulating modifier that will (eventually) guarantee the entry of each unit. Dave had just such a system in mind when he first discussed it with me. His concern was (as is that of the players who bring it up now) "what if the guy never rolls 8 or more?" Now, every single roll of the dice has a 42% chance of coming up with an 8 or more and by the 10th try there is an accumulated probability of 99.5% chance of success. In other words, in but 5 times out of a thousand will the player make it to turn I I without success! But, what if he misses? Yeah, right.

And, that incredibly unlucky player has only managed to miss out on one group. Guys come to me worrying about "not getting any reinforcements..." and in the game at our retreat in September, they carne close to pulling that off. However, they hit a streak of luck (oddly enough) that got them a bunch of units in rapid succession. Does this mean that good luck balances out the bad to bring the average chances back into line? Of course not, these are all independent tests. So what will happen if the forces never arrive?

Basically, you would be looking at one of those odd (and very rare) events where the game's reinforcement schedule is not written in stone (gasp) for all to see and plan with. "Damn-it, those troops were supposed to arrive at 11:00. I left this big hole for them and now they aren't here..." Congrats, the troops managed to get lost or were diverted to another battlefield ... or something. Welcome to real (not game) life. Remember Napoleon's luck during the Waterloo campaign'?

Another case of the Prob Cs getting out of control are those who examine the Hood Addiction Table in Embrace an Angry Wind and come up with the fact that Hood will fall on his sword once during every game on average. That's nice ... but the chance that he will order a disciplining assault before he does so is much greater. Also, since the Confederate player, saddled with Hood and the dang table has small chance of looking forward to the death of Hood result so he can turn the game by placing Forrest in command, the result gives that chance to the Confederate player to get out from under that yoke and break the game wide open. This adds to the tension and the game's fun ... something it seems some players are trying to tell me to eradicate at all costs. The alternative would be to lock the player under Hood's 'control' with no hope at all of changing events as they were. That is merely part and parcel of the thinking of those who feel history was the way it was because that was the only way it could have been.

In the end, will there be games where the sudden death die roll comes on turn 3? Sure there will. Does it matter? No, it doesn't. If you want to keep on playing to see what happens, ignore the result and drive on ... if it happens again, the goddess of fortune has spit upon you.

(Remember: Good Planets are Hard to Find... Please Recycle!)