One of the USA's foremost top Historical gaming distributors presented a seminar and research document entitled "Selling Historical Miniatures" at the 2004 Game Manufacturers Association (GAMA) Trade Show. The study written by Heather Barnhorst, Douglas Carey and William Winski, was well documented and conclusive. Their research and analysis covered the comparative difficulty, pitfalls and benefits for businesses to survive in the historical gaming industry. The study also highlighted the attributes and demographics of the overall Historical Miniatures Gaming population. The most striking conclusion rendered was that the population and market for Historical Miniatures Gaming are endangered. Overall numbers indicate that the Historical gaming population has been shrinking and "Graying" for approximately the last 5 years. ["Graying" is when a market population matures, but shows very little "new growth."]
This surprising conclusion evokes "denial" even anger for many historical gamers. It did for me also. But, after having studied the evidence and the marketing "indicators," It slowly sank in, and I had to admit it. Irrefutable market indicators show, that the population known as "Historical Miniatures Gamers" peaked around 1999, and has since been stagnant or in danger of decline.
In a state of "denial," I cited every positive indicator. First I minimized "Graying." I felt it was just a perception. The Historical Miniatures Gaming Society (HMGS) honors senior gamers at conventions, making the population seem older. But "perspective" is irrelevant. The data verifies that Adventure Gaming has many times the "new-gamer growth" than Historicals. I cited how the number of historical conventions and clubs were at an all time high, and I knew first hand that Historicals at Origins (see related Article) had grown 300% in the past 6 years. I also knew Historicon had certainly not shrunk. However, it slowly sank in. While the Origins historical program had grown significantly, only half of that audience is historical gamers, the rest are new recruits to Historicals or "Cross-over gamers" from other venues. We won them over from other venues, but it is a drop in the bucket unless repeated nationwide at every Adventure Gaming convention. Also, it would be years before most of these new gamers could support the historical gaming industry.
I reasoned that historical gamers have more buying power, and spend 5 times the average alt.gamer. This is partially true, but with 20 times the number of alt.gamers out purchasing ... Well, you do the math. Also teenage gamers do not make up the entire Adventure Gaming community, and convention sales, essential in the Historical gaming market, do not account for the same proportion in the alt.game profit margin. Online sales make up a larger percentage of historical sales than shop retailers. Most historical shops must sell online and attend several conventions just to remain competitive.
Some of the positive trends I referred to turned out to be "false indicators." The profit margins of many failed historical shops proved some other very irrefutable dynamics are at work. Old Glory, an anchor of the historical gaming industry, cited the past 18 months as their "...worst year ever," after noting that 20% of the (already rare) shops they distributed to were now extinct. Online clubs and online sales have been higher.
However, as the Barnhorst seminar corroborated, online sales and clubs grow more when gaming shops no longer provide the local "gaming services" of
- (1) merchandise in hand,
(2) a gaming site,
(3) local subject matter experts (to bore you), and
(4) a professional proprietor, and
(5) a place to network, meet and grow the hobby.
The alt.game shops have not only taken over this role, they now dominate it many times over.
How many times more?
Well according to this analysis, there are over 100 predominantly non-historical gaming shops in the USA for every historical one. If this is true, then Historicals represent only one percent of storefront gaming sales. However, for summer convention attendance the odds aren't so as bad. GenCon and Origins (35,000 cumulative) only attract TEN times Historicon's peak of 3,500 (+/-) six years ago. These are the indicators that tell the story. In the last decade, these conventions have doubled in size, while Historicon has dropped off by 15%. (Also, HMGS East conventions have incurred serious financial losses, trying unsuccessfully to regain those numbers.) The crux of the matter is that the HMGS market-share now is a fraction itself a few years ago. The target customers are definitely not satisfied with some aspect of the product. An analysis by Orest Swystun cites:
.. during this time the hobby industry grew as a result of the economic downturn. Apparently we [Historicals] did not. The Adventure Gaming industry had unprecedented growth last year compared to other industries. When Games Workshop (GW) throws a tournament (not even a convention - just a tournament) adults fly in from all over the country. Not children! Adults! The blinders that I have seen Historical people ... because they have a narrow focus is not helpful for the growth of historical gaming. We [Historical Gaming] should be riding on their coat-tails. But we do not."
Granted, HMGS Historicon is NOT the only historical convention, and GenCon/Origins are not the only Adventure Gaming conventions. Still, even when granting a 10% average increase for overall historical convention growth, we see Adventure Gaming conventions averaged over 100% growth during the same period. This shows an enormous domination in "MARKET SHARE." The Market Share is where the real concern lies. In terms of market share, Historical gaming, by simply standing still, has lost immense ground to Adventure Gaming and is in serious danger of becoming "market insignificant." From a marketing perspective, when this happens, there is little chance of recovery to previous levels, or survival.
Is historical gaming on the brink of some cataclysmic collapse? By all means NO! It will indeed survive, and will continue to grow, in some cases thrive. And Historical gamers, with a close circle of locals and favorite product-lines intact, may note little change except an already apparent disappearance of historical gaming shops nationwide, and more expensive, less available products to choose from. However, the historical gaming industry will (or already do) feel a change. Gamers who relocate between gaming communities will also see it. The shops provided "gaming services" that were a QUALITY to the gamers. For "Average Joe Gamer" the ABUNDANCE of historical gaming availability (especially outside of conventions) is endangered. Like outnumbered frontier settlers, historical gamers are forced to band together online and in regional club-enclaves (or travel "back East" to big conventions) in order to find scarce "gaming opportunities." This dwindling quality and reduced gaming opportunity retards enthusiasm for historical gaming, hurts retail sales significantly, and impedes the growth of historical miniatures gaming.
"BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS ...?"
"The best defense is ALWAYS an effective offense." To succeed, any venue must first be VISIBLE to the right demographic groups. Then it must be made DESIRABLE to its target audience (both of which we can actually control), and finally, it must be readily OBTAINABLE to those we've convinced to desire it. This is how GW and most of the Adventure Gaming community have succeeded. Further, the only effective multipliers of these three dynamics are our virtual "Gaming Evangelists," Game Masters who push promotion of a venue and recruit new gamers. To succeed, one of our foremost goals must be to unleash and increase the unparalleled effectiveness of "hobby evangelism" of our game masters.
Then, we have to rely on the industry and gaming community to capitalize on those achievements. Our gaming organizations must to cultivate, stimulate and support the historical gaming industry and understand the essential roles they play. Our hobby organizations must remain committed to promoting growth in size, number and prosperity of our historical gaming industry. This is critical, as they grow, so grows our entire hobby.
Any approach to promoting historical gaming must start with defining "Who should we reach?" Then determine "How?" Exploiting the efficiency of the information age to promote our hobby to new levels is extremely cost effective. However, if we do not encourage, mentor and support our Game Masters to provide what GAMA calls "PGE" (Positive Gaming Experience) then we can never get past the first step. Efficient OUT reach (i.e. we go to them.) is essential. We cannot succeed without first focusing on effective ways to reach the huge crop of soon-to-be adult "alt.gamers" who are all potential historical gamers. Perhaps 1/3 or more of our current historical gamers are former (or current) alt.gamers.
In order to exploit our strengths and reinforce our weaknesses, we must first identify them. For example, Alt.gamers have a higher "turnover" while older historical gamers tend to stay that way for life. (We just swap scales, and change periods and rules more compulsively). However, Alt.gamers are more prone to sample and enter other Adventure Gaming venues that are both visible and obtainable in abundance at non-historical conventions. This is a weakness as historical gaming has so little presence at most Non-historical conventions. This is why our recruiting efforts and Cross-over games are so absolutely essential at places like Origins, GenCon, and "Gorilla-Con" in Podunk, USA. "The harvest is plenty, but the Laborers are few!"
By acting decisively with far-reaching and effective programs, we can stem the market share tide decline in the quality of our hobby. We can achieve that by clearly defining specific organizational priorities and then reaching out one by one. Satisfied gamers, game masters and vendors will have the right tools and a conducive environment to recruit new gamers and expand exponentially to the benefit of our historical conventions, growth of our historical gaming industry and above all else to sustain our hobby.
THE AUTHOR
Pete Panzeri is the Origins War College Director, and founder of the Historicals at Origins Program, and the HMGS Game Master Support Network. His wargame publications include "SANTA ANNA RULES!: Warfare in Mexico 1820-1820" and "Catastrophic Kill!" He was awarded the "Legion of Honor" in 2001, by the Historical Miniatures Gaming Society. Known for his books Little Big Horn 1876, Custer's Last Stand, Reed Books, International, and Plains War Campaigns, JodiePress.com A US Army Infantry Major, he's directed Military History Programs for the US Military Academy Preparatory School, was Chief of Military History for the US Army Infantry School, Tactical Branch Chief for the US Army Military Intelligence School, Fort Huachuca Arizona and was awarded the Bronze Star and Combat Infantryman's Badge during the Battle at Ghazlani, Iraq, Operation Desert Storm, 1991.
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© Copyright 2004 Hal Thinglum
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