This is a "counterfactual" scenario for French Intervention in the American Civil War. The pivotal point for the foreign recognition of the CSA was Gen. Robert E. Lee's invasion of the Union in the fall of 1862. This campaign was undertaken as a result of the successful battles of Cedar Mountain and Second Bull Run. Lee hoped that by invading the North he could actually rally the pro-Southern population of Maryland. Unfortunately for Lee, it turned out that the eastern Marylanders were more supportive of the South, than those of the western half of the state that he marched through. Lee also tried to draw Gen. McClellan into a decisive battle and defeat the Army of the Potomac thus demonstrating the impossibilty of the Union defeating the Confederacy. With a victory in the North and the "cotton famine" kicking in within Europe it was hoped that this would lead Great Britain and France to offer mediation and recognition. But with the failure of Lee's Maryland campaign, and President Lincoln's issue of the Emancipation Proclamation, the CSA's hope of European alliance died. Lee's plan hoped to neutralize the gains that were steadily being made by the Union in the west under Gen. Grant. Grant was slowly building a string of victories that would ultimately lose the west for the CSA and eventually the war by eating up the South's resources. This is not to say that the East was not important, but to the Union as long as Washington wasn't lost and Lee was kept at bay, victory on the West would eventually lead to victory in the East. But, for President Davis and the CSA things were a bit different they could not afford to lose the East. Thus their premier general (Lee) and their largest army stayed in Virginia. What If Now we come to the great "what if", or as the term is now used, the "counterfactual" possibility. Lee basically had to give up his Maryland invasion for one reason; the discovery of the "lost orders" found by a pair of Union soldiers wrapped up with three cigars. This finally gave Gen. McClellan enough of an advantage that even he couldn't waste. (Though he just about did by failing to crush Lee at Antietam). But what if those orders had never been found? McClellan would have returned to his over abundance of caution allowing Lee to do as he pleased. Lee had a grand scheme that included hitting Baltimore and even Philadelphia. Would he have been able to carry it out? I think in the long run the answer is no. Lee's army had been pretty much fighting and marching nonstop since that early June. At the Seven Days campaign, his army numbered 90,000 men. By September it was down to 40,000 to 45,000. In contrast the Union Army of the Potomac remained about twice Lee's strength. Even though Mcclellan wasn't about to risk "his army" in an attempt to destroy Lee, he would have been able to block him from directly threatening Baltimore or Washington. If there had been a battle in Maryland it would more than likely been a Confederate victory. But Lee's army just wasn't strong enough to destroy an enemy twice its size. With the winter season fast approaching Lee would have hurried to Virginia and his base of operations. Here he would have resupplied and gathered in more manpower for the coming spring. However Lincoln would not have had the military victory he wanted to issue his Proclamation. With Lee's semi-successful invasion of Maryland and Pennsylvania, Britain and France would have been more inclined to offer the CSA overt support. Napoleon III seemed more eager than the English to offer support. My supposition is that Napoleon III would decide to act without England and recognize the CSA on his own. The two main reasons for his actions would have been; one, the cotton famine (getting the French unemployed weavers back to work and off the streets) and two, Mexico. Napoleon decides that his support of Mexican Leader Maximillian needs to be stronger and gets guarantees from President Davis's administration of non-interference into Mexican affairs when the Civil War is over. In return Napoleon offers to use the French fleet to break the Union naval blockade, and to send a French Expeditionary Force to the South along with needed supplies. England would then decide that it morally couldn't support the South while it still practices slavery. So England stays neutral, although the British cloth industry benefits from the lifting of the Union blockade! England does not recognize the CSA but offers to act as a neutral mediator. Lincoln thanks the British but declines, and thanks the heavens that he doesn't have to open a second front in Canada! At first the Peace Democrats in Washington are encouraged by the failure of the Union army to rein in Lee, but once news of the French fleet attacks come in, and then news about French troops being sent by France to aid the South, the majority of the North rallies for Lincoln and for the defeat of this "foreign invasion." Now Lincoln must find a general to replace McClellan who has shown that he is unwilling to take risks needed to decisively defeat Lee and so bring the war to a conclusion. Long Run As a final comment on this situation I think that in the long run the South would still not prevailed in gaining independence. First, with the North aroused by the direct intervention of the French the determination to fight to the bitter end would have been much greater. Second, Napoleon would have been under tremendous pressure at home if anything had gone wrong. (And in what war has nothing ever gone wrong?) The war would have dragged on for a couple more years but the only way for the South to overcome the North's advantage in resources would have been a huge infusion of French aid. But even though Napoleon III was Emperor, he still had to operate within set boundaries, and the French people surely would not have stood for a massive commitment in America just to further Napoleon's interests in Mexico. The end result would have been a more bitter post war reconstruction that would have had ramifications all the way into the 20th century. Would the USA have been so willing to help France against Germany during WWI ? (why help the one European nation that was responsible for the prolongation of the our Civil War with the resultant increased casualties, not to mention the attempt to break up our nation!) Without American support in the final years of the Great War it is possible that Germany would not have suffered such a level of humiliating defeat at the end of the war. In fact, it could be argued that the war would have ended with some sort of negotiated peace in which Germany would have claimed some form of victory. This in turn may have averted the blood bath of the Second World War. Yes, "what if " indeed! Back to Table of Contents The Messenger Fall/Winter 2001 Back to The Messenger List of Issues Back to MagWeb Magazine List © Copyright 2001 by HMGS/PSW. This article appears in MagWeb (Magazine Web) on the Internet World Wide Web. Other military history articles and gaming articles are available at http://www.magweb.com