The war with Yugoslavia appears to be over. We won. The Serbs are pulling out and soon a NATO/UN/Russian peace keeping force will move in and begin rebuilding. The one million refugees can begin returning. The war objective was accomplished. Air power has won its first war. Was it a victory? Did the war set any precedents for the future? What can we expect to happen next? And can we live with what we have done? VICTORY? In purely military terms, yes, it was a victory. NATO has forced the Yugoslav Army and para militaries to leave Kosovo. A "friendly" occupation force will be in place so that the Kosovar Muslims can return. And this was all done with only two US casualties, maybe several hundred Serb military casualties and a few thousand direct civilian casualties amongst the Serbs and Kosovars. Who knows how many Kosovars died of the force expulsion or were executed. From a US political perspective the war was also a victory. The goal was achieved and no US casualties were had due to enemy arms. No President loses popularity due to winning a war quickly and (for the US) painlessly. Of course that political win can be lost if the peace turns nasty. PRECEDENTS This was NATO's first war. Victories inevitably inspire future actions. Those could be good if future actions have as strong a moral foundation as this war. No one likes or approves of genocide, especially blatant genocide. We prefer as Tom Lehre put it in strong "We like to kill them off by peaceful means." An active NATO should send a wake up call to all states who oppress their own people that they may be invaded if they go too far. But will this be done to a NATO country? Turkey for instance is actively suppressing it's Kurd minority. Algerians and Turks are not liked in Western Europe. Gypsies are ill favored in Eastern Europe. Can NATO bombs do anything here? And what of Russia? What of Russia? Without them this peace would not be. Weakened and down Russia is. One might even say castrated, but it would be a mistake to deny their power. Russia is still a massive nuclear power and, if it can ever get it political and economic house in order, the natural voice of opposition. Russia is not NATO. Russia is the target of NATO. But for now they cooperate. An active NATO risks activating Russian Nationalism. A very dangerous precedent. If that is the end result of this war then the world will pay dearly for its morality. WHAT CAN WE EXPECT TO HAPPEN NEXT? First and most dramatic, the Serbs will pull out and NATO will go into Kosovo. The devastation we will see on TV will be massive. Likely the US public will be momentarily shocked. But soon we will forget it, just like another natural disaster. Many of the Kosovars will return home. Rebuilding will commence, but not fast enough to prevent more suffering. Truly the Kosovars are the losers. Then there is President Milosovic. He is still in power. If my previous analysis of him is in the ball park, he fought this war to lose. Losing to the "Turk" was the only way he could pull out of Kosovo and still remain in power. He has spread the blame around widely enough that the government can't turn on him. Which leaves the people. Do they want him out? Probably, yes? Do they have the means to oust him? Only if the army joins them and there is no reason to believe that that will happen. If anything, they will want to keep the president safe - because if he is a war criminal many of them are as well. I agree with the news in saying that as long as Milosovic is in power Yugoslavia will get no rebuilding funds. But as with the blockade on Iraq shows, people to do get rid of leaders who bring whole countries to ruin. A steady hold on the internal security forces and the army make Milosovic pretty invulnerable. Which is not to say he will not fall. If his power base deserts him he could fall. Milosovic is no Saddam Hussein - so he could fall. And finally there is the situation in Kosovo itself. I would hate to be a Serbian civilian who stays behind. I do not doubt that many a Serb will die at the hands of Kosovars. Undoubtedly many Serbs will leave so in the end a division of populations will occur, just not the one the Serbs wanted. In a few years, a plebiscite will happen and Kosovo will declare independence - to join the ranks of untenable countries, another potential victim of more war. CAN WE LIVE WITH WHAT WE HAVE DONE? NATO has a massive arsenal of aerial power. I think this war shows that we can blow up any building, bridge, factory, or bunker that we can find. Along with the odd hospital, orphanage and Chinese embassy (Oops!) But is that power enough to win wars? Personally I doubt it. Consider how concerned our forces were to not hit civilians and how reticent they were to openly discuss a ground war. NATO wanted to destroy painlessly, without political fall out. I think that the restraint shown in not targeting civilians was the right move. But even so, the bombing rallied the Yugoslav population behind Milosovic. Had it come to a ground war, the Serbs would have fought together. And in Kosovo itself, the Serb forces were far from defeated. It would have been a bloody, nasty war. Which would likely have been at best a pyrrhic victory. NATO would have been weakened and Russia angered. So can we live with this war. I think so. It had a moral basis, it was to stop genocide. It was not for territorial or national aggrandizement. Really, very few people died. And hopefully our side will not come away with the idea that air power alone can win wars. Who knows it might even send a message to other would be oppressors to think twice before committing genocide. THE WAR AS A MATRIX GAME The air war in Kosovo is perfect for a MG. Military maneuvers and political actions flow together far more than a standard game can account for. In fact the game should not end with the pull out. Just as in real life, the key to this victory is to find out the outcome of the peace. Many questions are left unanswered. Will the peace hold? How will the reconstruction go? What will the Russians do? And will President Milosovic ever be arrested on his war crimes charge? Back to Table of Contents -- Matrix Gamer #5 To Matrix Gamer List of Issues To MagWeb Master Magazine List © Copyright 1999 by Chris Engle. This article appears in MagWeb (Magazine Web) on the Internet World Wide Web. Other military history articles and gaming articles are available at http://www.magweb.com