OBJECT. To establish a means to calculate the determination of a nation/tribe to wage war. On the wargame table we impose morale rules to prevent armies from fighting to the last man (don't tell Custer!) and reaction rules to limit one's ability to charge recklessly or stand stubbornly against hopeless odds. For some time, I have been working on a morale based system to impose realistic confines on the grand strategic abilities of armies and also to gauge the willingness of a people to wage war. It is relatively easy to start a war - the biggest problem is to end it (when to surrender and whether to accept the conditions offered). In board games victory is established by one side occupying key areas; exiting units from a particular part of the map; causing a given number of casualties; or a combination of any of the above to gain the required number of 'victory points' within a set time limit. This is fine for a one-off game but not really acceptable for the 'never-ending story' of the soloists campaign world. Why should the enemy accept that he's beaten - or worse still: why should your leaders and people at home accept that you've won? If Napoleon's campaign against Russia had been merely a wargame then the Tsar would have surrendered following the fall of Moscow. The Americans won the Tet offensive wiping out large numbers of Viet Cong guerrillas but back home the folks had had enough and chose to interpret a last desperate offensive as proof that the VC would never give up and effectively turned victory into defeat.. No matter how well our armies perform we must not forget that back home there are those who consider war to be too important for the generals. The populace or the leadership may not feel so willing to reinforce victory or, conversely, to roll over and lie dead. If the general is also the leader (emperor, king, dictator, chieftain etc.) then the army will always do his bidding and the populous will continue to supply the war effort (albeit, perhaps grudgingly), however by flying too far in the face of public opinion he faces the risk of assassination, coup, or some other similar attempt at enforced early retirement. Generals may be in the best position to appraise the military solution/situation but back home, the leadership have to consider other factors: diplomatic maneuvers (relationships with allies and potential enemies); the effects on trade, treaties and peace negotiations; as well as domestic factors such as high casualty rates, increased taxation and food shortages. The war may be perceived in a totally different way at home than at the sharp end. Indeed, the enemy's attitude and expectations regarding the conflict may differ dramatically ("it may only be a border raid to you but it's an affront to national dignity to us.") Indeed when two differing cultures clash, the very concepts of 'war', 'victory' and 'defeat' may be totally alien to the other society. One side, tired of the conflict and the drain on its resources will seek to come to terms with its adversary, but if the other side, filled with righteous indignation or national/ethnic fervor, is only interested in unconditional surrender, then the war goes on. If the prospect of occupation by a hated foe is so strongly repugnant or the consequences will lead to untold destruction (a real or imagined fear) then the people will continue to fight even if the army has been wiped out. The pressures and dictates from home will undermine the best laid plains of the generals. It might be the militarily sound choice to fall back on a strong defensive position but such actions might be perceived as running away from the enemy. Your general knows that his troops are perfectly capable of advancing on and taking Baghdad\Berlin\Richmond\Athens but the powers that be might have different ideas! These frustrations will keep the soloist off balance - the enemy will not always adopt the logical and sensible ploy (i.e. the one you want it to do). Your own forces will be involved in a race against time (not just against the enemy but to achieve as much as possible before public opinion becomes indifferent or even hostile back home). Below I have drawn up a table of national morale modifiers and a 'morale gauge'. These should be used as a guide to the soloist when trying to determine the outcome of a campaign. Used together with chance cards and a good set of characterization rules they should help your 'alternative worlds' take on a life of your own. MODIFIERS Regular Modifiers: The morale gauge is modified every 6 months (or every other campaign season). The following criteria are tested and applied together with the random modifier: +1 More territory gained than lost over the last twelve months. -1 More territory lost than gained over the last 12 months. +1 More clear/decisive victories than defeats over the last 12 months. -1 More clear/decisive defeats than victories over the last 12 months. -1 Populous suffers drop in standard of living compared to last year. -1 Conflict results in famine/food shortages. -1 If more than one change in military or political leadership over last 18 months (-1 per change). -1 Unacceptably high casualty rate over last 12 months. Random Modifiers: Every six months roll two average dice (one red, one blue). Subtract the red from the blue (i.e. provide a range from -3 to +3) and apply to morale gauge. Immediate Modifiers: When any of the criteria listed below are met, then the modifier is applied immediately at the end of the present campaign turn. +1 Stated military objective gained. +1 Clear military victory. +2 Outstanding victory (enemy force destroyed). -1 Clear or outstanding defeat.v +1 Major town/location taken/retaken. -1 Major town/location lost. -2 Own capital taken (treat as major town for rest of campaign). +2 Enemy capital taken (treat as major town for rest of campaign). +1 Major siege relieved. +2 Defender regains all territory lost at beginning of campaign. +1 New general/military leader appointed. -1 Death of national hero (popular/successful general). Peace Time Modifiers: For every complete year that a country has been at peace move the morale gauge two points toward the 'stable' band. 'Stable' countries receive no peace modifier. Random Immediate Modifiers: The following events could have positive or negative results. Roll 1D6: 1,3,5 = -1; 2,4,6 = +1. New national leadership (government, king, chieftain). Victim of surprise invasion/attack. Aggressor now forced into defending own territory. Chance Cards: If chance cards are used then include some cards/events that will affect the morale gauge. Below are some suggestions/examples. +1/-1 Diplomatic success/failure +1 Propaganda success at home. +1 Victory parades/display of prisoners. Elections and Leadership Succession: The military may have to modify its actions in order to meet the political needs at home. This may happen as a result of a random or pre-programmed event. For example: Elections: The leadership require a military victory before going to the polls. Elections: The leadership want to avoid taking any risks before election. Do not seek battle unless with overwhelming odds in favor. Elections: An anti-war government will attempt to end hostilities. Succession: The death of the ruler could well bring to an end the reason for the present conflict. Succession: The generals will head for home (possibly taking their entire army with them) to secure their position under the new order. Succession: Potential for civil war or disgruntled generals defecting to the enemy. Morale Gauge The gauge is made up of seven bands each consisting of a number of points. As a result of modification the points will increase or decrease eventually bringing the people into a new band. Although the gauge ranges from -13 to +13 this merely indicates the starting points for the two extreme bands. The Mongols, for example, could easily accrue +25 points during a campaign. The gauge is used to act as a decision making guide. It is up to the player in control whether to follow the guidelines. If, however, they are ignored then there should be some risk of sparking off discontent among the people. If characterization rules are employed then the 'character' of an absolute ruler will take precedence over national morale but he must still face the consequences of upsetting his people. Starting Points: At the start of the campaign the gauge for each country/people is set to mid point in the most appropriate band (but not in the two extreme bands). This is a subjective decision, if you have no historical model then set the gauge to zero. Before embarking on military action, each country should list its overall objective together with an military or political objectives that need to be secured in order to reach that main goal. The lesser objectives can be changed or modified at any time to meet new circumstances, but the main objective can only be changed at the beginning of a campaign year (or if the objective has been achieved) and using the morale gauge as a guide to whether such a change should be implemented (a people with negative morale points will lose face if they try to retract and lessen their ambitions). Once the objective is achieved, consult the gauge for all concerned parties to see if there is a likelihood of an end to hostilities. Also at the start of the campaign note down the level of acceptable casualties per year (two figures could be produced to indicate military and politically acceptable losses). Note that indecisive or narrowly won/lost actions do not affect the morale modifiers as both sides will be claiming to have defeated the other. MORALE GAUGE +13 Aggressive Aggressive and expansionist; people hungry for further conquest. +12 Bellicose Attacks on slightest provocation. +11 Attacks to settle old scores. +10 Will only accept unconditional surrender. +9 Will extend conflict beyond original objectives. +8 Confident Fights on behalf of allies. +7 Believes in justice of its actions. +6 Only accepts surrender on good terms. +5 Will consider pushing on beyond original objectives. +4 Will consider pushing on beyond original objectives. +3 Stable Will honor treaty obligations. +2 Will seek diplomatic solutions before taking military action.v +1 Will seek diplomatic solutions before taking military action. 0 Will fight if provoked. -1 Will not exceed military objective. -2 Accepts surrender on reasonable terms. -3 Accepts surrender on reasonable terms. -4 People will follow the political leadership. -5 Shaky Delays or avoids giving support to allies. Once given, will continue in its support. -6 Delays or avoids giving support to allies. Once given, will continue in its support. -7 Consolidates gains and avoids escalation. -8 Accepts face-saving peace terms. -9 Weary Actively seeks a way out of any conflict. -10 Will abandon allies and or accept unfavorable peace terms. -11 War-weary - will avoid further confrontation. -12 War-weary - will avoid further confrontation. -13 Defeatist As long as any military conflict continues there is a risk of the leadership being overthrown by its own people. Will surrender without conditions. Further suggestions: Perhaps maintain separate gauges for a country fighting against more than one enemy or on more than one front. Incorporate a set of national characteristics (to include the level of resistance likely to be offered against occupying forces). Produce a set of tables outlining affinity or animosity between each country. Back to Table of Contents -- Lone Warrior #109 Back to Lone Warrior List of Issues Back to MagWeb Magazine List © Copyright 1995 by Solo Wargamers Association. This article appears in MagWeb (Magazine Web) on the Internet World Wide Web. Other military history articles and gaming articles are available at http://www.magweb.com