Flavius Tiherius Phillipus swore to the gods but still his outflanking command did not appear. His army was in a pitched battle in one of Rome's civil wars. His opponent was no thrash barbarian army but one of Rome's best legions being lead by one of the empires best commanders. Flavius would need all of his troops if he were to have a chance of winning this fight. Again, he searched the horizon on his left. But, he searched in vain. There will be a dead general after this battle, he thought. No sub-general of his could be this incompetent and not pav with his life. That was the Roman way. "Sharpen your dagger, Drusus. ", he said to his adjutant. "You will need it to dispatch an incompetent general."

I attended the 1994 Historicon convention and was a participant in the De Bellis Multitudinis (DBM) tournament that was run by the North American Society of Ancient and Medieval Wargamers. I learned many things about playing DBM at this tournament. I made a list of ways to improve my play of this game. One note was to look into outflanks, both in using them and defending against them. I decided that I would use an outflank against my next opponent when I got back home.

Larry Connor, a friend of mine, and I fought a DBM battle soon after I returned from the convention. Assisting Larry were Mike Demana and Dave Perry. Dave Eblin fought on my side. We decided on a Roman civil war scenario. I had a large command consisting of Blades and Auxillia with a few Psiloi and artillery. I sent a smaller command to outflank on my left. It consisted of eight Cavalry and three Light Horse.

The outflanking procedures are simple in DBM. You roll a d6 each turn. Your outflanking force arrives on the next turn if you throw a six. A force should arrive, on average, on the fifth turn. I formed my main command on the right and the center with a single Light Horse element on the left. Its job was to slow down any enemy forces on my left. Larry arranged his army with the mounted troops on the left and the right and infantry in the center.

We began. I held up my troops advance since I did not want to engage before my outflanking troops arrived. Larry, Mike and Dave advanced to met us. I could see that my Light Horse on the left would delay but could not stop Larry's mounted troops on that flank. I wheeled some Psiloi into an intercept position. They would be trampled when they met Larry's mounted troops but better them than the Blades.

The battle progressed. Each turn I rolled to see if my outflank command arrived, each turn I failed to roll a six. The turns continued. My superior Auxilia were holding the right. I might even break Larry's left with some luck. I might still win if the Light Horse and Psiloi could stabilize the center and my outflanking Cavalry and Light Horse arrived in time.

Turn ten arrived but not my outflanking troops.

The Light Horse and Psiloi were gone on the left and center. I had committed my last reserve troops to make one last stand to support my Blades. However, Larry was using his mounted troops from his right command to get on the sides and to the rear of my Blades thus causing them to be destroyed if forced to retreat. My command break point was around 12, 1 would lose the battle if I lost 12 elements from my large command. We had agreed to a four hour time limit before we had begun. I no longer hoped to win but perhaps I could hold out for a tie. The turns moved on but no luck on the outflank dice.

The decisive blow fell on the seventeenth turn after playing three hours and 50 minutes. Blades are tough units but few units can last long with enemy troops on three sides. My big command finally broke and the battle was lost.

Flavius saw that the battle was lost. "Come Drusus, we shall take fight and fight another dav. Perhaps the gods will be kinder to us at a future place and time."

Seventeen times to throw a six on a d6 and nothing! The odds of doing that had to be 100,000 to one against. I hailed the victors, apologized to Dave for leading him to defeat and said my good-byes. I raced home, got a beer and my calculator and started to work. The odds of troops arriving on turn two was one in six or 17%, 83% chance of not arriving. The chances of them arriving on turn three would be the 5/6ths chance of them not arriving on turn two times the 1/6th chance of them arriving on turn three (83% times 17%) or 14%. So the odds are that outflank troops arrive on turn two 17% of the time and turn three 14% of the time. Thus the chances of them not arriving on the second or third turn are 69%. I continued to calculate the odds out to the 45th turn. I compiled my numbers and they can be seen on the below table.

There are three lessons to be learned by this experience.

One, limit the number of outflanking units to the number of points that you can afford not to appear in the game. A four hour DBM game should not last more than 20 turns. I believe this is true even if one of the sides is in a defensive position waiting for an outflanking force. It can take three or more bounds for outflanking forces to get into battle after they appear and it may take several more turns for them to have an impact on the game. Thus outflanking forces must arrive by turn 15 or not be a part of the battle. The chart below shows that the outflanking force will not appear on or before turn 15 in 7.4% of all games. The tournament rounds at Historicon lasted three hours long. Let us say that outflanks need to arrive by turn ten to be effective in those games. Your force will never be effective in 18.7 of all games. How long can you hold out if you commit 100 points of a 300 point army to an outflank? This leaves your opponent with 300 points against your 200 points. Clearly, outflanking forces must be of a low point value.

Two, the non-outflanking part of your army must be a position to hold out for what may be a long time. You will need to form them into an L shape with both ends anchored on the board edges with your camp secured in the rear. 

Your reserve units must be ready to plug any holes in the line or eliminate any break through units.

Third, when and if your outflanking units arrive, you must engage them where they will have the greatest immediate impact. You must strike where you can destroy the enemy or at least force him to draw away from your non-outflanking forces.

Outflanking is a risky business. It has high risks but the rewards can be high. An outflanking force can be devastating if used properly. I recommend that you try them. I have not given up on them regardless of the one bad experience.

Flavius turned and began to depart from the field. He walked two steps and fell to the ground. The pains in his back were acute and he felt the blood as it drained from his body and stained the ground.

He rolled to his side. Drusus stood over him, the bloody dagger in his hand. Drusus stepped forward to finish the job. Flavius laughed his last laugh. He thought that to Drusus there was no difference between an unlucky general and an incompetent one.