Jack Greene has been in the wargaming hobby for as long as I can remember. He ran the playtesting for Conflict Magazine, and wrote a number of articles for them. Jack has also worked as a pressman for Avalon Hill. In this article, Jack expresses his opinions on the future of the wargaming hobby.

When I first conceived the idea for this article I was tempted to title it "2001: A Wargaming Odyssey" or "Wargaming: 1999." Yet I find that it is hard to project possible futures for anything, let alone wargaming, and that it becomes even more difficult as you speculate farther into the future. As it is, all I can do is guess, project, and make hunches. Possibly some of my thoughts will happen sooner than predicted, or later, or not at all. One assumption I am making is that by the time Origins X rolls around (or will we call it Origins '84?) there will be a nation and a world left. I am assuming that we will not be playing After the Holocaust for real. Because of the time frame I have chosen, a mere seven years from now, there should not be too many radical changes in the landscape of wargaming. Time will tell.

One thing we can all be sure of is that the hobby will still be here. Even with another Vietnam, an anti-war revulsion would at worst slow the growth of wargaming. I recall Frank Chadwick once telling me that at the height of his work in the anti-war movement he was very much into playing wargames. I do not see wargaming as a hobby dying off because of the subject matter covered. I do think that it will branch out further than it has and thereby attract more people of both sexes to the hobby.

What do I mean by branching out? Well, fantasy and space gaming will be stronger and a bigger attraction than they are today. The obvious crossfertilization between the two will be fully consummated in the marriage of space fantasy gaming. Traveller is pointing the way for this trend which will see hero types in a space backdrop. Probably someone like Attack Wargaming will have published SpaceBlitz by then. In fact, with fantasy games, space games, and space- fantasy games on the market, younger players may not have as much interest in traditional wargaming. Fantasy and science- fiction gaming may become so big that the people like Randy Reed, James Meyers, and Rich Banner of today's hobby may become the personalities of a small elite section of wargaming. On the average, the fantasy and space gamer will be the younger player.

Which raises another point. Many of us hardcore types will be approaching forty years of age. We will have grown and matured with the hobby. The age diversity in gamers will be pronounced and will lend energy to the formation of parallel clubs in the same area. These clubs will be made up of people of roughly similar ages. While there will always be crossovers on an age basis, especially in areas with few wargamers (Cheyenne, Wyoming or Penzance, Cornwall), many clubs will form on an age basis. There will be the teen club, the college and post-college club, and then a married-and-two-children club. In certain exotic areas there might be an all-gay wargaming club or an all-black game club.

With age will come more maturity. I know I can look back at the pages of the first issues of the General and turn a little red with embarrassment at some of the ads I placed. I think we will find a greater diversity of people, more of an age difference, and a larger selection of games at Origins X (to be hosted in Baltimore, by the way) than we did at Origins '78.

The large number of games available will have peaked in 1979 or 1980. A relatively new factor will automatically limit the growth in the number of game products.

The Era of Limits is with us now even if we don't want to think we feel it now. Inflation will have placed most SPI and Avalon Hill games in a price range of $18 to $20 with the big games (still occasionally produced) at substantially higher prices. Most of the large companies will find that their sales volume has stabilized. For years now Don Greenwood at Avalon Hill has been the voice crying out in the wilderness. He has said time and again that the bubble will burst and that the incredible boom that wargaming has enjoyed for the last few years will end. I submit that he is right, although possibly not for the same reasons.

One of the basic laws of business and wargaming is that in times of depression game sales go up. One need only look at the last recession that we are just coming out of to see the economy turn down while game sales go up. Playing games is a cheap past- time, since you buy a game once and get to play it again and again. But as that game becomes more and more costly to produce, the price driven up with the triple thrusts of higher plastic costs, higher wood product costs, and higher transportation costs, fewer games will be bought. We will not suffer the fate of a hobby like snow-mobiling or speedboat racing, but we will feel the effect of a general turndown. I assert that the overall quality of games will improve and the number of games bought by the individual will drop. Economics will dictate this.

Currently, many games are produced where we read the rules once and play it (maybe) once because another game is about to appear, and the game doesn't play well anyway. This era is ending. While we might avoid a real deep depression in the years to come, the combination of a worsening energy crisis, increased balance of trade problems, and a general turn-down of our economy will mean that the average game buyer will have less money in his pocket to buy games. We may see a game barter system spring up as well.

SPI will be in the midst of a major change in their packaging format. They will be dropping their plastic game containers and will be returning to a cardboard boxed version for their games. At least one major company will be discussing the possibility of dropping the die in games or else going to wooden ones with the price of plastic continuing to skyrocket. Sales of "unboxed" games will be on the increase. We will definitely be in an era of wargaming where the companies will be very conscious of controlling the cost of the product. Certain "economy" games will be with us and certain types of cornercutting will occur.

Avalon Hill will be dealing with a few major problems. Its retail growth will have ended and it will be fighting to maintain its stable sales level. Its major problem will not be a lowered quality level but an inability to transport large quantities of games economically. There will be a growth of reliance on our inadequate rail system, but the trucking industry will still be the main form of transportation of games. Tiered prices may be introduced - that is, there may be an East Coast price, Mid-West price, West Coast price, and overseas price.

These prices, progressively more expensive as one moves away from the manufacturing source, will reflect the rising costs of transportation. There will be some discussion of de-centralizing the game production system by setting up smaller regional offices that produce the games and ship them within a region.

On the plus side, however, electronic wargaming will be a new and growing part of the hobby. A few games with pocket computers will be out and games played between gainers in different regions via the use of computers will begin to occur. The hobby will be discovering that electronic energy is a lot cheaper than oil-related energy.

There will also be more experimentation with design concepts and ideas. More varied design concepts will be floating around the hobby, and this will be a product of more designers. It will be actively fueled by numerous small wargame companies, many of a regional or topical nature. Individuals will publish one or two games almost out of their garage. Some of these games will be beautiful simulations while others (the majority) will be common stones. The Cadillac game will be with us as well - a limited edition and very high-quality game, in design, components, and playtesting. Design credits will appear on the covers of games and people will not only choose games by what company produced it but also who designed it.

Before moving on to the other companies, it should be noted that a biggie like SPI could go bankrupt or Avalon Hill could have everything held up because of corporate problems. Things like this are the jokers in our deck of the future. The going under of the little guy, like SDC or Rand, will remain with us, as will the occasional scam, like Liberator games.

SPI will still be around but its staff will be virtually unrecognizable. It will have gone through a series of retrenchments and expansions and changes. It may have moved from New York City altogether. The leading company in the hobby will still be Avalon Hill but Tom Shaw and Don Greenwood will be the only staff members there that we know. All of the present staff will have moved into other fields or into medium-sized companies (of which there will be several). Battleline will be in an interesting position as the flagging sales of Heritage Miniatures will be an albatross around their neck. The growth of miniatures will have stalled, and sales will be in decline. Miniatures will be prohibitively expensive for most gamers.

TSR will be another company with only one name that we will recognize -- Gary Gygax -- will still be there, but nobody else. In many ways TSR started the D&D explosion, but they will find that several rivals will have come along and will out-do D&D.

The future of GDW will be decided by a flip of the coin. Either it will have the most stable staff or it will have self-liquidated. There will be at least one other major co-operative in the hobby, modeled on GDW's success.

The future for wargaming overseas will be quite good. There will be several medium-sized and many small firms in Japan, Australia, the United Kingdom, West Germany, Canada, and possibly Italy and France. With the high costs of transportation, cross-cultural ties will have peaked, but they will be maintained. There will be at least one major game club and possibly a company behind the Iron Curtain. At least one major U.S. company will publish all of its new games in the United Kingdom. Many people in 1984 will note than the historical quality of games improved as gamers in different nations co-operated in producing better games.

So what will John Q. Smith of Anytown, USA find when he shows up at Origins X? There will be about 3500 people in attendance. More would have come, but transportation was too much of a problem. Those who did travel far to Baltimore will have pooled it. The booths of the larger companies will seem almost formal by the standards of the early Origins. While not black tie, there will be a sort of stiffness and some game company presidents will be wondering who they are losing from their staff to a rival during that weekend. The small companies will be the most likely to let their hair down.

John Q. will note some quite expensive games. One electronic game will be selling for $250, and will be about the Battle of the Bulge. A space game for $150 will also be available. While the "more, more" aspect of Origins will be there in many tournaments and seminars, there will be several quiet and more stately affairs going on a sort of antique sale as opposed to a yard sale. John Q. might notice that the two big-name designers in 1978 will not be producing games in 1984. John Q will be surprised at the number of non-wargaming titles for sale at Origins. There will be games on railroads, deep-sea wreck exploration, mountain climbing, as well as politics and social or psychological subjects. Not too surprisingly, their sales will not be tremendous, but it will point out how sophisticated gaming techniques developed in wargaming will have spread to other areas of interest. Randy Reed and Amnesty International will have an area for information and contributions on getting Tom Oleson out of prision in the Socialist Republic of Peru and Jack Greene out from incarceration in Chile.

The trend in titles will be interesting. Game players will be able to find games that will interest them on just about any war imaginable. There will be an interest in "cultural wars"; that is, games on wars involving other cultures. The Mongols versus the Empire of China will be a new SPI release, Clive will be a multi- player game on conquering all of India, while Aztec will be selling well. John Q. will notice that certain cults will have cut out their little niches. Napoleonics, wars of the late 19th century, and World War I will be some of the specialized areas of interest with their own particular following and games. Richard Berg will be running the auction, which will be a real hot-bed of interest. The collector looking for a copy of Lee Moves North, Chaco, and Wellington's Victory will be common. A couple of people there will own 1,000 games. Game collectors will find speciality mail-order houses that deal just in used games.

John Q. won't be too suprised to see that the media will be covering this event pretty closely. Several Congresspeople will play wargames, and in general the hobby will have a higher profile than in 1978. One point of attraction will be the $10,000 first prize purse offered in one gaming event at Origins '84.

Well, that's about it. John Q. will finish up an exhausting weekend, totally overdosed on wargaming. As he heads home, he will wonder what next year's Origins (to be held in London) will be like, and he must admit that a weekend of total fantasy does provide a nice cushion from the harsh realities of day-to-day living.