My work for GAMA dates back to 1988, when I was elected as Secretary to the executive board. Since then I have also served GAMA as Executive Director and Vice President. In these positions I have been able to view the industry as a whole and have been privy to large amounts of data from all three segments of our industry: manufacturing, distributing, and retailing. Additionally, I am in daily contact with several members of the GAMA Board of Directors. We exchange information to help draw sound conclusions, enact programs to benefit the industry, deal with problems (such as the attack on lead miniatures by the State of New York), and combat the outbreaks of negative publicity about role playing and things of that nature.

So, in the course of all this I have compiled all kinds of information, which I sort into three categories: the good, the bad and the ugly. Now, my brothers, after sorting through all of it you try to come up with "the plan," or at least "the real picture," or, failing that, "a somewhat unobstructed view of the general nature of how things may progress, perhaps, if, what you have seen does this, which in some peoples' opinion, may do that which it looks like it may, perhaps, do, or do-do..."

Actually, the collection of information can and does lead to an overview of what is going on. After looking at the recent thrust of card games into our hobby, I have come to some, I think, interesting conclusions, which I will share with you now.

First, what has just happened has happened before. When Avalon Hill ruled the roost we got one wargame per year, and some other general games from AH. That went on for almost ten years.

I remember getting Tactics II in 1959/60. I also remember the beginning of SPI, Conflict Games, GDW, and then .... TSR. From 1960 to 1976 military history simulations (you know, wargames) dominated a very small hobby. Then the earth cracked open and out came the trolls, orchs, wizards, dragons, etc. The advent of role playing was upon us. As a general condition of gaming, role playing was more fun! It opened up your head. Let you do all sorts of wild and crazy things, and it was FUN. That is the single key thing, fun. From that first surge of interest in role playing sprang many companies with many good ideas, good writers, and good products.

The process was upside-down and backwards in certain respects. Usually it went something like this:

Demand = Production to Fill the Stores

Production occurred, with very little marketing of the product, BUT, during the buildup, stores were opening all over the place and new product was being placed in the stores via the distributors, and gamers were being exposed to the product and then buying it. Very strange system, but it worked. More stores opened, more product, more demand. It meant that the retail store was not only the source of the product, but was the source of information about products in general. It generated a close bond between the gamers and their favorite hobby store.

This growth also provided shelf space for wargames, which was unprecedented for the wargame market. When a store opened, it would stock all sorts of game products, including wargames.

RPGs help intensify our sales, no question about it. The golden years were at hand. This growth in stores helped to generate more game companies of all sorts. The list of companies producing wargames now or in the past is quite lengthy. Sales were good; life was good. The hobby's three-tier system, manufacturer to distributor to store was a good system. It was not perfect, but it was working.

The relative customer base for military history games was staying about the same. The word is static, but it has a negative feel to use that word. A better word is stable. That sounds good. Yes, let's use the word stable to describe the market.

WRONG!

When I was a much younger man, a boy actually, I could turn on the TV, or go to a movie, or read a book, and find out all about WWII. It was everywhere: "Combat" with Vic Morrow, Stuka Pilot, "Twentieth Century" with Walter Cronkite, "Sands of Iwo Jima" or "Fighting Seabees" with the Duke, and on and on. All forms of media were giving us visions of our father's war. This was the tap root of what was to become the customer base for the wargame companies.

As time passed, from 1960 to 1980, the press lessened as the war became less important. The customer base that was built up by all of the free advertising, the media exposure if you will, began to "stabilize' or become static.

The growth period between 1960 and 1976 was augmented by the impact of the retail stores opening to supply the demand for RPG and other games from 1976 to 1988. I choose the year 1988 because it represents, as near as I can figure, the peak growth of the retail stores and the beginning of the subtle changes in how retailing was done, how things were being sold. It was a year that saw the first impact of computer games on all aspects of the hobby. It was a year that saw a decline in the number of RPG products and companies. It was the year the first discussions occurred at the trade association level about sustainable product lines, market share, and other serious matters. It was also the year that miniatures began to represent a significant percentage of the overall market.

1988 was the first Origins held in LA. At that Origins most companies had new releases -- this was the way that most small and medium companies made enough money to stay in business for the rest of the year. Selling to the attendees could net a company several thousand dollars, which was enough to keep the lights on. It was also the first Origins, however, where several larger companies announced that they were not going to use the convention to bring new releases to the public.

This decision was intended to help reinforce the distributor-retailer portion of the market. Although I can't remember the exact wording of the statement that was released, in effect it said no future releases would be made at Origins. They would either hit the market before or after the convention, to allow retailers to sell the products. This would prove to be an important decision.

1988 was also the first year the GAMA Retail Trade Show was held. Added attention was directed towards the retail end of the supply system, and for the first time manufacturers had an opportunity to discuss overall marketing within the industry. It was the first year that statistics were gathered on a national basis. It was the first year GAMA developed a relationship with GIA, Game Inventors of America. It was the first year that GAMA began truly developing the multi-division approach to the hobby industry, by forming a representative board from the manufacturing, distribution, and retailing parts of the industry. 1988 was a very busy year.

From 1988 until 1992 the industry struggled with ups and downs, as it continued to collect and evaluate information, developed programs to increase communication, refined the Trade Show into a dynamic educational program for retailers, and successfully fought local and national attempts to ban lead miniatures. Did a good job.

In 1993, a company brought to the market a game that infused a tremendous amount of money into our little world. That game is called (for those of you who may have just returned from deep space):

Magic: The Gathering

I saw this game at Origins '93 in Fort Worth. It was a fascinating process to observe. The game is quick and fun. It is portable, easy to learn. That is the opposite of our military history games, and, to some extent, role playing games. The game caused a revolution, or should I say, another revolution. This new revolution was unlike the first revolution in several very important aspects.

First, it was demand driven. The gamers wanted the product, did not have to learn of it from the retailers. Very interesting. It was so popular that small groups spread the basic information by e-mail, Internet, word of mouth and even faxes. In one year the company went from about $100,000 gross sales to $100,000,000.

Second, the product dominated the time and attention of both the distributors and retailers to the virtual exclusion of everything else. It gobbled up market share from RPGs, not wargames. It sliced and diced miniatures in the fantasy and fiction area, although not historical miniatures. But it dominated the time and attention of two of the three tiers and in that sense it dominated wargames.

Remember, we did not enjoy major shelf space in the vast majority of retail stores to begin with, and now we were being shoved off the shelves in hobby stores. In the space required for one of my games, a retailer can put 8 card game boxes or booster boxes. In less than one week, and sometimes in less than one hour, that retailer can turn that space, sell it out. My games don't sell that fast. So the space my game "had" was now taken by a money maker.

It is my opinion that once you lose retail shelf space it is very hard to get it back. None of the wargame companies are strong enough, nor is the topic popular enough to secure this space. But, we may yet be clever enough to keep our end of the hobby alive in the stores.

As I stated earlier, when RPGs burst onto the scene it helped us. Card games, however, have hurt us. We do not have the word of mouth network, but we do have some magazines. My company has its own magazine, so does GMT and The Garners, and there is ZOC, Command, S&T, Fire & Movement, and others I can not remember, as well as a host of newsletters. All talking about our stuff, but all preaching to the same choir. Think about that... the static group.

We did enjoy a brief flurry of interest as WWII had its 50th anniversary, with some cable channels carrying neat shows like "Wings," "Fields of Armor," and so forth, but not much else. In fact, more time was taken on the major networks in debating the use of the A-bomb on Japan than any other single aspect of the war years. Too bad, but that is the way it is.

Okay, so now I want to talk about what the future holds. Right now GR/D, and others, are searching for answers. We know our customer base hasn't dropped their counters and picked up the cards. We also know that retail space is the single best way to reach new customers, attract sales and get information out on what our games are about. I can not speak for any other companies, but I will tell you that GR/D has enacted a retail support program to encourage stores to add or maintain the presence of our games on their shelves. This program kicked off 10/1/95 and was designed by GR/D, with input from both retailers and distributors. We are also looking at other kinds of programs to promote military history games, such as nationwide distribution of a catalog that will include the products of as many wargame companies as wish to be part of the program.

Right now companies are still searching, and the decisions they make will set the course for the future. But, regardless of what is done, certain facts appear to be fundamental to what is going to happen in the years to come.

One:

The generation that represents the vast majority of military history gamers is getting older. Now this is not so bad, in part. A fair number of the gamers that started gaming in college stopped when they got married, started families, got jobs, all of which took up that most precious commodity-time. Now these gamers are returning as they get older. They are settled, they have income, they have some time. This return is good, but not permanent.

As this group continues to age we will see another, more permanent decrease in the consumer group. The term most often used is, 'the graying of the hobby.'

Two:

The American educational system is not producing many people capable of understanding printed instructions, math, or the conclusive processes of thought (logic). Like it or no, it be what it be. It would take a massive effort to turn this around, and to get people interested in the gaming aspects of war... well, need I go on? History isn't a fun topic for most.

Three:

Interest in the topic is less today than yesterday. It will be even less tomorrow. An example of this can be shown in the modern historical wargame market. When the Soviet Union became the Russian Federation the bottom dropped out of the modern market. No more interest, since the threat had gone away. Right. We are much safer today and nothing really bad is ever going to happen. Germany is reunited. So? It has happened before and not much came of it. Right. But the fact is: no Soviet menace, no fun games. Market gone.

Four:

A niche is a niche. The possibility of a general market does not exist. The proof of this is in the game Axis & Allies. Lots of these games were sold when compared to the rest of our sales. Maybe more of A&A sold than all of our games combined, yet we did not see a surge in interest or sales. Interest did not transfer.

Five:

We make a product that is too complex. See number 2.

So should we all give up and get jobs at McDonald's? We already treat the wargaming business like a hobby. That is not a negative ~statement, just a statement. Well, GR/D is not going to give up. There are just enough customers to support us for the time being. How long will that exist? Good question. Are we doing anything about it? You bet! Will we be successful? I sure hope so. I like making Europa games. It is my avocation. It is unique. Creative. Informative. Interesting. I have friends in this industry that I only see at Origins. I like Originsl My point being that I am motivated to stay in business and will continue to work toward that end. The next year will give us many more answers as various companies try various programs.

In closing let me say this: we would have a much better chance if everyone would cooperate in marketing the hobby, but, well, everybody has a reason not to get together and work on this problem. Too bad, as most of the reasons I have heard are bullshit.