Will the Germans always win the battles and lose the war, or can they really win it all?

Introduction

At the Origins National Gaming convention in Atlanta in the summer of 1990, Mr. Fred Allen of Atlanta, Georgia (winner of the 1983 Origins Panzer Group Guderian tournament and avid Europa afficionado), had the good fortune to meet Rick Gayler, Editor of TEM and rules guru. At that time Fred and I had started three games of Fire in the East and Scorched Earth, all of which developed poorly for the Germans by the first winter. I had played the Germans each time and Fred successfully executed a careful Runaway Defense to prepared double lines. Based on this experience, Fred told Rick that the Germans didn't have a chance without some rule changes. Rick not only disagreed but offered to prove it by traveling to Atlanta to play the Germans against Fred's supposedly unbeatable Soviets. This article is an action report of that game which has been ongoing for a number of years, with the Axis first ably commanded by Rick and then somewhat competently (I haven't lost yet!) by me.

Barbarossa

The Gayler-Allen Scorched Earth game began in the Fall of 1990 with Rick's June II attack surprising the Soviets (yet again-they never learn). The blitzkrieg raged forward with a key element being imaginative use of trucks allowing Rick to bypass Soviet strong points, especially in the south, which Fred defended lightly. Rick had the Soviets on the ropes and was pushing hard when the dreaded mud set in very early in September II. Rick cursed the dice gods but nonetheless was stuck in the mud with long supply lines, disorganized Soviet armies and great opportunities just out of reach. Most unfortunately Rick was out of time after his second visit to Atlanta. At that point I surprised Fred by offering to continue the game to see how it would play out. After giving it some careful thought (Comrade Fred is a naturally suspicious Russian) he agreed. I quickly realized in studying the map that I had seriously underplayed the Germans in my earlier games. Rick had done an excellent job of keeping the Soviets off balance so they were busy plugging holes instead of building invincible double lines. The Soviet southern front was particularly weak, as most of the original forces had been routed to the central and northern fronts under the assumption that the Germans couldn't advance towards Rostov quickly. However, with the use of trucks and the massing of railroad engineers, the Germans stormed through the Ukraine.

Herr Fisher Takes Command

In October, 1941 when I took over, the Axis dispositions were as follows. Fred had decided to lightly defend the Arctic front this allowed the Axis forces to quickly take Murmansk and advance up to the White Sea Canal and close to the Svir River. Army Group North (AGN) had pushed to within a few hexes of Leningrad and through the Valdai Hills with 2 Panzer and 4 Motorized divisions located around 2A:1231 and 2A:1826. Army Group Center (AGC) was closing in on Kalinin, Moscow and Tula, and had taken Orel. 5 Panzer and 2 Motorized divisions along with a Motorized Brigade were 2 hexes from Kalinin. 5 Panzer divisions, 1 Motorized division and a Motorized SS brigade were within 5 hexes of Moscow and Tula was under assault by 4 Panzer divisions, 4 Motorized divisions and the Grossdeutschland Motorized Infantry regiment. Army Group South (AGS) had taken Voronezh, Kharkov, the Donets industrial basin including Stalino and Rostov, the Crimea, and had forces advancing towards Stalingrad. A Panzer division, LSSAH, and a Motorized division were located around Yelets, a Panzer division was at Voronezh, and a Panzer Corps was east of Rostov at 4A:2309. Russian losses (net) had averaged 163 points per turn with a peak of 197 in June II regular turn and July I. German losses had been minimal, with all Panzer, Motorized and Panzergrenadier divisions present and at full strength.

The Soviet defensive scheme consisted of two basic principles: fall back where needed to build double lines and keep the armored divisions safe. The Germans prevented the Soviets from making a continuous double line but the Soviets had done a good job of conserving the armored divisions, which for the most part were kept in the field rather than disbanded. It was obvious that Comrade Fred considered the Moscow and Leningrad fronts the most critical since the south was only lightly defended.

The First Winter

The first winter proved to be a nasty experience for the Germans (again-they also never learn) although the Soviets did take considerable losses. Soviet attacks bolstered with winterized troops and armored divisions stopped the Germans cold before Moscow and Kalinin, inflicting heavy casualties in the process. German forces quickly brought up construction units to build forts that, in conjunction with the wooded terrain, provided some defensive benefit. Further south the Soviets mounted an offensive to retake Voronezh. This attack was halted only at the edge of the city by the onset of spring mud and a Panzer Corps ensconced in the city. Soviet concentration of winterized units in these two areas left other fronts vulnerable, and the Germans exploited this advantage.

AGN continued advancing up to the Leningrad-Tikhvin rail line: the front followed the rail line from Leningrad to Tikhvin but the Soviets held until the spring. The Germans continued to hold the Leningrad-Vyshniy Volochek rail line which was converted throughout the winter. In the Kalinin area the Germans attempted to keep as much territory as possible; serious losses were incurred, but the Germans yielded little ground. In this area the SS Nord Motorized Division, shipped from the Arctic, was invaluable leading winterized attacks and then holding ground so the Soviets could not get winterized odds against its stack. The area of Serpukhov-Kaluga-Tula was the scene of much fighting, but neither side mounted major efforts there. The line between Tula and Voronezh was not strongly held by the Soviets because they didn't have enough men. The Germans were able to inflict many casualties by concentrating the SS and Luftwaffe (LW) units with their winterization benefit. The Soviet line was even pushed back so that by spring the Germans were adjacent to Tula and Stalinogorsk and had taken Lipetsk. The area between Voronezh and Stalingrad was largely open as neither side had units to man it.

Throughout the winter AGS made good progress eastward taking Stalingrad and crossing the Volga. The Soviets attempted to defend the Don between Stalingrad and Rostov, but did not have sufficient men or air power. The Germans and Rumanians massed along the Don, brought up the Stukas, and easily made crossings into the swamps east of Rostov. The Soviets did not have the strength to force the Axis units back and Fred made the decision to not reinforce this front. So, through the remainder of the winter, the Axis units methodically cleared all the swamp hexes and started to push towards the south.

First Winter Retrospect

The Germans suffered serious losses that first winter, including Panzer forces. These losses peaked at 84 German net strength points in March I (and 10 more Rumanian). On one turn Panzer forces were carelessly left in the front lines with no winterized forces and were pounced upon and thrashed by the thrilled Soviet commander who was finally beginning to enjoy the game. After that debacle Panzer forces were only stacked with winterized support units, in good defensive terrain or in large stacks. By the end of the winter the Panzer forces had almost completely recovered, although the Infantry and Artillery units were depleted.

Then in March and April converted tank divisions started rolling out of the workshops in Voronezh and Vyshniy Volochek in preparation for the 1942 offensive. Although the Soviets inflicted many casualties on the Germans and regained some territory, their strength did not increase greatly, contrary to what Fred had hoped. Even with the flow of new Tank Corps, the Soviets faced the Spring of 1942 with trepidation.

The `42 Caucasus Offensive

The German offensive by the new Army Group SouthCaucasus jumped off in the Spring mud with the goal of eliminating all Soviet units south of Rostov by the end of clear weather in 1942. This army, containing most of the Rumanian forces and German mountain troops with some tank regiments, pushed south quickly, limited only by the lack of supply. German spearheads closed up to the Kuban in April. In early May infantry units jumped across the Kuban and took Krasnodar while the mechanized forces moved around the Russian right flank taking Voroshilovsk and cutting the rail line nearby. At the same time a parachute drop was made on undefended Sochi to attempt to pocket all the Soviet defenders along the Black Sea. In late May Maikop, Novorossiysk and Pyatigorsk were taken and units were shipped into Sochi: a headquarters unit, resource point, and construction unit. The remaining Soviet units retreated into the mountains south of Maikop, closely followed by German and Rumanian mountain units.

The Soviets exploited a lapse in Luftwaffe naval interdiction bombing to retake Sochi (just before the airfield was complete and with Axis ground units only one turn away) with assistance from the Black Sea Fleet. In June, Axis units advanced south of Pyatigorsk towards the Terek River. However Soviet reinforcements and replacements massing along the Terek River began to threaten the long German left flank from Voroshilovsk to the vicinity of Mozdok. To counter this threat the 24th Panzer and Grossdeutschland Divisions were railed in to strengthen the flank and provide punch in the drive to Tbilisi and Baku. On June II, three Soviet Tank Corps attacked the infantry units along the Terek River. After suffering heavy casualties the attack was smashed by reinforcements and strong air support. In the counterattack all three Soviet tank corps were destroyed (with only one cadre surviving) and a German tank column overran Ordzhonikidze. In July and August Axis mountain units pushed through the mountains taking Kutaisi, Poti, and advancing to Groznyy and the mountain pass to Tbilisi.

For supply, two rail lines were converted: one to Ordzhonikidze and one to Sochi. In September Axis units pushed towards Batumi and Baku, as well as surrounding Tbilisi. A mini Panzer Corps (Panzer regiments with a motorized artillery regiment) moved down the Caspian Sea coast towards Baku while the 24th Panzer Division moved overland from Tbilisi. In early October, Tbilisi and Baku fell and the few remaining Soviets retreated to Batumi, Leninakan and Yerevan. With the fall of Tbilisi and Baku, German forces were ordered to the nearest railhead for shipment to Penza. The Caucasus drive would be concluded by the Rumanians and Italians, with air support as needed.

AGN in 1942

Army Group North had a successful year advancing through the most difficult terrain of the Fastern Front. As soon as the snow ceased, the Tikhvin-Leningrad rail line was broken and the assault on Leningrad began. The attack utilized siege and rail guns, engineers, commandoes, and heavy air support. Careful calculation was required here to ensure 5:1 attacks since the Soviets always had the hated NKVD units and at least a -2 modifier in the city hexes, given forts. The two partial city hexes south of the Neva fell quickly and then a pause ensued while rails were converted to bring up the rail artillery. During this time some of the rail artillery op-railed to Kalinin to support its capture (and were destroyed in the Soviet Kalinin offensive described later). The larger rail guns were slowly replaced and later participated in the ongoing siege of Leningrad. At this time Soviet river flotillas began to supply Leningrad. To counter this, German forces took Tikhvin and began attacking northeast towards Petrozavodsk to link up with the Finns, thus blocking the Svir River access to Leningrad.

The Soviets tenaciously defended the Svir so a Panzer Corps was inserted to attack through the wooded hexes while the infantry assaulted the swamp hexes along Lake Ladoga. Still the going was slow until a Panzer Group from AGC attacked and took Cherepovets (through the swamps at 2A:1817 and 2A:1717), cutting the Soviet supply line. With the fall of Cherepovets the Soviet line quickly collapsed and the Germans linked up with the Finns, thus fully isolating Leningrad. Through the course of the summer all the Soviet units cut off west of Cherepovets were eliminated (many isolated) and the assault on Leningrad continued. The full city hex was quickly taken but crossing the Neva proved difficult. The Soviets had NKVD units in all three remaining city hexes with their main strength in 2A:0930. The main armament of the Baltic fleet also supported 2A:0930 and all three hexes were also fully occupied by fighters and a large amount of position AA. A tough nut to crack! First, a surprise German commando-led attack eliminated one of the NKVD units in a Half Exchange (unfortunately the cadres were too strong to overrun). Next a second NKVD unit fell victim to an isolation die roll causing Stalin (a.k.a. Comrade Fred) to let a few choice Russian expletives slip. As August waned the Germans finally crossed the Neva and Russian resistance began to collapse. The city fell in the October II turn as the mud commenced. German tenacity paid off!

East to Yaroslavl

With the advent of spring the Germans advanced from Vyshniy Volochek east towards Yaroslavl. The Soviets retreated east but then turned and launched a surprise counter offensive. Soviet Armored and Motorized units eliminated a 16-10 Panzer division and overran a stack of railroad artillery (on loan from Leningrad) two hexes from Kalinin. Another lesson learned the hard way: always keep a ground unit with rail artillery! All the Soviet units were quickly eliminated, but it took all summer for the Germans to occupy the Volga River line in strength, partly because of the absence of the Panzer Corps that moved north and took Cherepovets. As the October rains began, the Germans crossed the Volga Reservoir and consolidated for a push east to cut the supply lines to Moscow. Concurrently German infantry units with strong Me-110 support were clearing the swamps south of Cherepovets. Rail lines in this sector were converted close to Cherepovets and to within two hexes of the Volga near Yaroslavl.

Moscow

Moscow was heavily fortified by the Soviets during the winter and presented a very tough target. With Leningrad tieing up all the rail guns and most of the Luftwaffe, the German forces were content to advance to Moscow and then dig in. Through the summer, forts were built by both sides and much position AA was brought in. Otherwise the sector was quiet.

Army Group South

In the area from Moscow to the Caspian Sea the Soviets conceded much territory during the summer months to buy time and build their forces. Initially, in the Spring mud of 1942 the Soviets attempted to hold the line from Moscow-TulaStalinogorsk-Lipetsk-Voronezh with light forces south to Astrakhan. However newly upgraded 16-10 Panzer divisions from Voronezh quickly inflicted heavy losses and the Soviets decided to continue their Runaway Defense. Quickly the line fell back towards Tambov and Ryazan while Tula was garrisoned and fortified. Like its sister city to the north, Tula held out until the first half of October, thus upsetting the German southern offensive. The Soviet pullback did not stop until a new line was established behind the Volga from Moscow to Kuybyshev.

The only Soviet units between Kuybyshev and the Caspian Sea were the garrisons at Saratov and Astrakhan. The Germans were faced with a large gap with widely separated rail lines. As the Germans had already commenced the offensive into the Caucasus, it was decided to finish off the Soviets there and then shift the German forces to the Penza area to support an attack north towards Kazan or Gorkiy. Meanwhile the main strength in the south would press north through Ryazan to cut off Moscow and tie down the Soviet Tank forces. The largest group advanced north from Voronezh through Tambov towards Ryazan. This force crossed the Volga three hexes east of Ryazan and pushed north all summer meeting increasingly strong resistance. At the beginning of October the line was only two hexes north of Ryazan.

The lack of units forced the Germans to leave their right flank hanging east of 2A:4107. Other Axis Armies, relying heavily on the Hungarians and Italians, moved from Stalingrad east towards Astrakhan and north to Saratov. When Astrakhan was taken, that Army turned north and supported the attack on Saratov. With the fall of Saratov, German units continued advancing north to Penza (the railhead was at 7A:4514) and motorized raiding forces struck as far as Syzran. The line from Saratov to Astrakhan was manned by the Hungarians, Rumanians, and Italians (yes, this made me nervous).

The Red Army Resurgent

All through the summer Soviet forces gathered ominously between Ryazan and Gorkiy. As September passed, the Soviets began advancing south from Gorkiy, threatening the German right flank. In early October this attack fell on the Germans with full force all the way from Ryazan to Penza. In the last clear weather turn a Soviet Tank Corps skirted the German right flank and cut the only German supply line to the units at and around Ryazan. To the German's further dismay, a `1' was rolled while attempting to eliminate this Soviet miscreant, so the tank force was able to retreat a cadre (2A:5011 to 2A:5012) and continue to block the rail line. As the Soviet October I turn began, mud was the main resistance to the Soviet advance in this sector and many German Panzer and Panzergrenadier units were threatened with encirclement.

The Future of the Ostschlage

This is the current status. In the summer of 1942 the Soviets conceded the Caucasus and a large amount of territory while pulling back behind the last natural obstacle that could still protect Moscow: the Volga and Oka rivers.

The Soviets have finally launched their great counter-offensive containing a large part of their new Tank and Mechanized Corps with the hopes of pushing back and destroying the Axis forces south of Moscow. In the Caucasus a few Soviet units still hold out but will have a difficult time surviving with isolation die rolls beginning in the next Soviet turn. Meanwhile in the Caucasus many German Mountain, Panzer, and Panzergrenadier divisions are moving to the railheads to reinforce the southern front under attack. Leningrad and Tula have finally fallen, thus liberating many German land and air units and loosening the constraints on the Finns. In the north, German units are poised for an advance toward Vologda and Yaroslavl and have established a bridgehead across the Moscow-Volga Canal. The war is at a decisive point!

Increasing Soviet strength is going to be pitted against still potent Axis forces. The Soviets possess the advantages of strong Tank and Mechanized units, masses of Artillery, the abundant and seemingly endless VVS, plenty of armor and artillery replacement points, and interior lines of communication. The Soviets are, however, suffering from a lack of Infantry divisions and the regular replacement rate decreases at the beginning of November. The Axis Armies are in fairly good shape: the Finnish, Rumanian, Hungarian, and Italian Armies are almost completely intact. The German Panzer arm is still strong, with few cadres and eliminated units, but the Infantry and Artillery arms remain depleted. The Luftwaffe can still successfully support or defend areas of its choosing, especially with the new FW190A's coming on line.

The current German plan is to cut the remaining three rail lines to Moscow from Kirov (7A:1905), Kazan (7A:3404) and near Saransk (7A:4414) with two strong German pincers. Cutting supply to Moscow will lead to the collapse of the Soviet Armed Forces and bring an end to the war (home for the Christmas of 1943!). The northern pincer will attack from the swamps southeast of Cherepovets, taking Yaroslavl and cutting off the northern rail line to Moscow; strong forces are committed to this effort and the defending Soviets are not very strong in this area.

The southern pincer will drive north from Penza (7A:4914) through Saransk (cutting supply to the Soviet offensive towards Ryazan and the southern rail line to Moscow), concluding in the capture of Kazan and breaking the final supply line to Moscow. Four divisions now north of Penza will be supplemented with nine divisions (and other forces) now in the Caucasus and will be reinforced with Panzer reinforcements that begin in December I and some Panzer units pulled from the Ryazan area. Between now and December II airfields will be built to support a major winter offensive north towards Saransk and Kazan. The Soviet forces in the Penza area are mainly regiments and brigades with few Infantry divisions and Tank Corps and there are few airfields for Soviet defensive air. It is expected that as Comrade Fred realizes the size of the effort at Penza he will pull units from the Ryazan offensive to attempt to stop it. But the winter will aid the Germans by nullifying the die modifiers of the Soviet Tank Corps, and the Luftwaffe will enjoy air superiority, at least in the beginning.

The Germans cannot afford to relinquish the initiative to the Soviets; to do so invites disaster. Therefore the Penza offensive is critical to the entire war effort. How will it turn out? An update will follow as significant events unfold.