The following rules are an experimental Victory Point system for the Barbarossa campaign from June II 1941 to March II 1942 which can have political, economic and command/control effects on the conduct of that campaign. These effects represent my best guess as to the possible impact of German military successes in the East on Stalin's regime and on the Red Army.

I firmly believe that both politics and morale have an enormous impact upon military operations--effects that to this date have not been adequately represented in Europa. These effects do not easily lend themselves to quantification in game terms since they depend on subjective human reactions to events rather than the more easily understood and ascertainable material aspects of war; nevertheless, if morale in war is indeed three times as important as the material factors as Napoleon maintained, then we cannot ignore the impact of politics and morale on the operational sphere and we must come to grips with the non-material aspects of war. I freely admit that these may be widely off the mark, and expect that many will challenge them as being too harsh, or too lenient, or too unrealistic in some fashion or another.

This system is not intended to address issues like Turkish entry, Finnish surrender, or even the Eastern Campaign as a whole beyond the Barbarossa campaign. Rather, it attempts to bridge the gap between military operations and politics in a narrow sense within the Barbarossa campaign to give players strong incentives to use their forces in a manner that may not be operationally efficient, but conforms to the potential political effects of either excessive territorial or force losses. A Soviet player under this system cannot freely run away without facing the possibility of both front and rear-line demoralization.

Likewise, an over-bloody forward defense in these rules carries similar risks. Some may question the latter assumption. I believe that any military, even the Red Army, suffering huge losses in a short period of time will suffer dislocation and panic that can spread into the rear. Remember that German gains in WWI prior to the Russian surrender were not particularly extravagant, yet by constantly inflicting enormous punishment on the Russian Army the Germans were able to weaken the Russian Army's morale while undermining the Czarist government.

While I freely admit that Stalin's regime possessed far greater resiliency than Czarist Russia, this does not mean Stalinist Russia remained wholly immune to the shock effects of huge military losses. The system reflects the relative importance of territorial as opposed to force losses by only taking into account those force losses from the previous game turn. Basically, I assume that the Soviets possessed a threshold of pain of around 100 strength points a turn. Losses kept under this value can be absorbed by the Soviet polity in 1941. Anything over this, however, begins to affect the Soviets. Note that this can be balanced by force losses inflicted on the Germans.

I intend this system as an introductory or preliminary step to try to introduce political effects in the Grand Europa sense on the initial campaign in Soviet Russia. All comments and criticisms are appreciated. I hope this experimental schedule will provide an elementary basis, however flawed, towards incorporating into Europa the operational consequences flowing from the dynamic relationship between German military success/failure and the political strength of the Soviet Union and its armed forces.

PROCEDURE

At the beginning of each German player turn starting on July 1 1941, the German player determines his current victory level as explained below. The current total is compared with the Soviet Political Strength table. If the current Victory Point total equals or exceeds the Soviet Political Strength requirements, then the German player may roll on the Political Instability Table for possible effects.

Any penalties called for by the Instability Table last only for that game turn and are implemented immediately. If the roll on the Instability Table yields a surrender possibility, consult the Surrender Table, make a roll and apply the results at that time.

If the game proceeds to April I, 1942 without a Soviet surrender, calculate victory at the end of the Barbarossa scenario as explained below.

Territorial Victory Points

+2 VPs for each full hex city and Murmansk.
+1 VP for each partial city hex.
+1 VP each for the cities of Tallinn, Kaunas, Smolensk, Sevastopol, Krasnodar, Grozny and each Soviet factory captured by the Axis.
+1 VP for each fully controlled Soviet Military District. Control occurs for Germany when all cities in an MD are occupied or under control of Axis forces.
+.5 x VP value for above cities if isolated, rounded down (note that each pair of isolated I point sites will generate 1 victory point).

Exceptions: If Sevastopol and/or Odessa are isolated, they do not generate VPs if any units of the Black Sea Fleet exist. If Leningrad is isolated but still able to draw supply over Lake Ladoga, multiply the hex values by .33 (rounded down) to determine VP value (e.g., a completely isolated Leningrad capable of drawing supply through Lake Ladoga equals 2 VPs).

Penalties and Awards for Force Losses

-1 point for every 50 points of combat losses taken by the Axis in a game turn (rounded down).
+1 point for every 100 points of Soviet combat losses during a game turn (rounded down).

Each lost air unit counts as 2 points of combat losses for the side that loses the air unit. Soviet air units lost as a result of the first turn surprise attack do not count; instead, count the surprise air attack as 10 points towards Soviet combat losses.

Note that these losses are not cumulative for purposes of checking political instability. Thus, when checking political instability, only the combat losses of the previous game turn are applied, not those for the whole campaign

Victory Point Calculations

For purposes of the Political Instability Table, the current VP total must be calculated at the beginning of each German player turn starting July I by adding up all the territorial awards and all the force loss penalties and awards as detailed above.

The territorial and loss VP awards and penalties are used both to check the Soviet Instability Table at the start of each German player turn, and to determine the final victory level at the end of the Soviet March II 1942 turn if the game proceeds to that point.

For determination of victory at the end of the game, ignore the +1 per 100 points of Soviet losses. Instead, award the Germans +1 for every 500 points of Soviet losses over the course of the campaign (round fractions down). Air losses are calculated into this as described above, i.e., 2 per air unit lost with 10 points for the results of the surprise air attack. Note that this will require recording Soviet losses for the entire game, but this bit of bookkeeping shouldn't be too difficult as losses must be calculated each turn for special replacement and group allowance purposes anyway. Just remember to write down and save each turn's results.

Soviet Political Strength Table

This table lists the minimum German VP total required to make a roll on the Instability Table at the end of any German player turn.

July I: 5	November II: 16
July II: 6	December I: 18
August I: 8	December II: 18
August II: 10	January I: 20
September I: 12	January II: 20
September II: 12	February I: 22
October I: 14	February II: 22
October II: 14	March I: 24
November I: 16	March II: 24

For every VP the Germans have over this minimum add +1 to their roll on the Instability Table below.

Soviet Political Instability Table

The Germans may roll on this table at the beginning of their player turn if they meet the minimum VP requirements as described in the Soviet Political Strength Table shown above. Note that all the effects described below only apply to the current game turn. Note that any NKVD units may used to meet the garrison requirements listed below.

If the table calls for losses in infantry RPs prior to August I calculate infantry losses by subtracting the required amount from any special replacements assigned to the district in question, should the Soviets fail to meet their garrison requirements. Losses from factory RPs resulting from this table prior to August I may be ignored.

If a district doesn't possess any major cities to garrison due to German capture, subtract the necessary RPs, regardless of the garrison, against special replacements assigned to the district if the district doesn't generate any RPs of its own.

Roll:
2-8: No effect.

9: -1 Infantry RP per MD in the current Soviet player turn. This may be negated if every major city in the MD possesses 3 REs of NKVD units. Note that off-map MI)s DO count and that multi-hex cities need 6 REs of NKVD units, not 3 REs. Soviet Rail Capacity is reduced by 10% in the current Soviet player turn.

10: -2 Infantry RPs per MD in the current Soviet player turn.This may be negated if every major city in the MD possesses 6 REs of NKVD units. Multi-hex cities need 9 REs. Additionally, any city containing a factory that doesn't meet its NKVD requirement loses its production for the current Soviet player turn. Soviet Rail Capacity is reduced by 20% in thecurrent Soviet player turn. The Germans may conduct 1D6 overruns at 8:1 odds or more in the current German turn (roll on one die before the movement phase to determine this number.) Any overruns over this number may only be made at 10:1 or greater odds. MPs for 8: 1 overruns are the same as for 10: 1.

11: In addition to the economic effects of 10 (i.e., potential RP losses), Axis combat forces improve their performance against the increasingly demoralized Soviets. During the German player turn all ground combat is resolved with a +1 modifier in favor of the Germans in addition to all other combat effects, and the German player may conduct ID6 overruns at odds of 7:1 or more in the current turn (roll on one die before the movement phase to determine this number, and any additional overruns must be made at 10: 1 odds). Soviet Rail Capacity is reduced by 30% in the current Soviet player turn.

12+: In addition to the effects of 11, the Germans immediately make a roll on the Surrender Table to determine if the Soviets surrender starting October 1; no surrender is possible prior to the October I turn. See the Surrender Table below.

Soviet Surrender Table

Roll at the beginning of any German player turn starting October 1 1941 when a modified roll of 12 or greater is attained on the Instability Table. Possible results of the ensuing peace negotiations are listed below:

2-12: Hitler and Stalin cannot agree on surrender terms. German intransigence and atrocities strengthen Stalin's hand, and the war goes on.

13: Hitler agrees to Stalin's terms: the Soviets formally cede the Baltic States, Byelorussia and the Ukraine as far east as Rostov. Stalin, citing the treaty of Brest-Litovsk, manages to retain a shaky hold on the shrunken Soviet empire.

The Russo-German war immediately ends in a German Strategic Victory. The British with U.S. aid fight on, hoping to entice the Soviets to reenter the war. The Soviets have suffered enormous losses, but are still potentially formidable and remain in existence as a gravely wounded great power, but a great power nonetheless. Stalin, at least on the surface, appears to be fully cooperative with Hitler, but the future is anybody's guess (shades of the Napoleonic period between 1805-1812)...

14+: Stalin's government collapses, and chaos spreads throughout the former Soviet Union. Hitler's dreams come true and the Germans gain total domination of the East. After some months of desultory fighting in the Mediterranean, the British realize the hopelessness of further fighting and sue for peace. World War II ends in a German Decisive Victory. (Note that this result is impossible to achieve unless the German has some net positive modifiers as detailed below.)

Apply the following modifiers to the Surrender Table (only):

+1 if Kiev falls to the Axis before September I. This modification may only be applied on turns prior to January I 1942. (i.e., if a surrender roll is called for on the Jan 11942 turn, this modifier does not apply .)

+1 if Leningrad is isolated before September I. This modification only applies to turns prior to January I 1942.

+1 if any hex of Moscow or Leningrad is in German hands, but the city is not fully controlled (up to +2 the Germans control part of both Leningrad and Moscow.)

+2 if all of Moscow and/or all of Leningrad is under German control. This is exclusive of the above unless the Germans fully control one of Moscow or Leningrad, and part of the other city they don't fully control, for a total of +3. If both cities fall, give the Axis a +4 modification and ignore the partial control award shown above.

-1 if the surrender roll is made after October II.

-2 if the surrender roll is made after December II.

-4 if the surrender roll is made after January II.

Victory Point Schedule

Use this table to determine victory at the end of the Soviet half of March II 1942 if the war continues to this point. To determine the level of victory use the Territorial Awards Table listed above as well as the Penalties and Awards for Force Losses Table. Note the Germans receive +1 for every 500 points of Soviet losses (rounded down) over the entire campaign, not every 100, for purposes of end-of-game victory determination.

39 or more: Axis Decisive Victory
35-38: Axis Strategic
31-34: Axis Major
27-30: Axis Marginal
23-26: Stalemate
19-22: Soviet Marginal
15-18: Soviet Major
11-14: Soviet Strategic
10 or less: Soviet Decisive Victory

Designer Notes

These new victory conditions incorporate the assumption that had the Germans done just a little bit better than they actually did, the Soviets' will to fight might have slowly crumbled. In my opinion, this is a debatable assumption, but undoubtedly both Hitler and (especially) Stalin fought as if this were the case, explaining some of Stalin's early war decisions and his refusal to pen-nit withdrawals. The tables don't assure negative results for the Soviet player-but should he execute early withdrawals and/or the Arctic Runaway, he will almost certainly give the German player a shot at these tables, perhaps even with bonuses.

The Soviet Union contains 18 military districts, and the prospect of losing anywhere from 18-36 infantry RPs can only fill the Soviet player with dismay. The further possibility of giving the Germans the combat bonuses for demoralization will also give the Soviet player pause -- a series of +1 attacks across the front, even if this effect lasts only for a turn, can break the Russians.

I'm sure many will question the Surrender Table. Actually, it's very unlikely that the Germans can force such a surrender if the Soviets play an adequate game. The Soviet player must carefully weigh his current territorial position and balance this against potential losses and act accordingly. Even if the Soviet player does allow the Germans a chance on the Instability Table, the odds still highly favor the Soviet player, barring some truly incredible gains by the Wehrmacht.

The system does allow for a snowball effect wherein the Germans capitalize on one turn's instability effects to try to force further instability in the coming turns and thus make dramatic gains. These cumulative effects may well spell disaster for a Soviet player and he should avoid granting the German side successive opportunities at creating such dangerous circumstances.

Of course, German rolls for Soviet instability may be unavoidable in certain turns. This system makes the decision of when to run and when to fight a rather more complicated issue and hopefully will create uncertainty amongst those players who have either refined the runaway to perfection or those players who are equally skilled at bloody forward defenses.

This system discourages a rigid adherence to either of these extremes since the runaway leads to excessive initial territorial losses, and the forward defense leads to consistently large VP bonuses each turn arising from massive force losses. Either of these can get an inflexible Soviet player in political hot water, and the Soviet player must now exercise a certain suppleness and willingness to swim with the political tide.

As for the Germans, this revised VP system is designed to spur them onwards will all due haste. Oftentimes in FitE/SE German players tend to assume a leisurely attitude with regards to Soviet Hero Cities: they simply isolate them and starve them into U-2 status before daring an assault. Here, the golden possibilities beckon the Germans to make riskier, quicker grabs at these politically important areas. The German player must balance the political benefits of such questionable attacks with the casualties they can produce, as well as the c/m assets needed to overrun any survivors in the case of NKVD-garrisoned cities. Likewise, if the Soviets offer the Germans the chance to digest large portions of the Red Army by executing a fanatical forward defense, this too can be turned to the German player's advantage. Of course, the natural desire to smash the Red Army while it remains in reach must be balanced with the potential losses resulting from too many mediocre attacks.

For those who are curious, the historical territorial VP count on March II 1942 stood at 21 points with another 4-5 points for force losses (I estimate the Soviets lost somewhere between 1800-2200 points) for a total of around 26 VPs. This puts the historical outcome somewhere around a high stalemate or low German marginal victory-- this is by intent, since my general philosophy with respect to VP systems is to use the historical outcome as a baseline and to determine victory for one side or the other based on the extent they deviate from this historical outcome.

I've always disliked "idiot rules" that force players to act in the manner of their historical counterparts. In some games, like the Fall of France, this may be unavoidable. The Russian Front, on the other hand, is susceptible to more subtle measures. I see a proper VP system as the most unobtrusive way to nudge players to act along historical lines, simply by making them acknowledge the same kinds of political, economic and morale problems that Hitler and Stalin faced.

These experimental rules may not prove to be the final solution to ahistorical play on the Russian front. But I do hope they lead to that solution, whatever it is, and I expect it to take the form of some type of adjustment to the VP system. This system also hopefully makes a tentative step towards Grand Europa-style rules on political effects and national morale and their relationship with the operational ebb and flow of the Barbarossa campaign.

By letting players know what victory is, I hope to introduce a level of strategic debate to FitE/SE that we see all too rarely today, the lack of which can be directly traced to the current inadequate VP system that defines victory in "pure military" terms. This may be fine for a staff exercise, but is insufficient in a game presenting itself as a complete operational/strategic simulation.

While some Germans foresaw the possible need to advance to the Archangel/Astrakh an line, others desired an advance quick enough to dislocate the Soviet regime and arrive at a political solution. This essentially represents, as I interpret it, the Guderian position: to precipitate a political collapse by rapidly occupying major population centers like Moscow that not only possess war-making industries and conscriptable men, but the political heart of the Soviet Goliath.

For those who thought like Guderian, the amount of territory occupied did not matter so much as the speed by which they advanced, which hopefully would outpace not only the enemy's military efforts, but would shatter his political nerves. But in retrospect the Germans faced a much more daunting task than David ever did.

EXAMPLE OF PLAY

The German player has just completed the June II surprise and regular turn. During that turn, Lvov, Riga and Kaunas fall, for a total of 3 VPs. 290 points of Soviets are destroyed on the ground and 3 air units are shot down for 6 more points. 10 points are added for the surprise air attack for a total of 306. This gives another 3 VPs for a total of 6 VPs for the turn. The German player joyfully observes that he has met the minimum requirement of 5 VPs for political instability on July I and may roll on the Instability Table with a +1 modifier.

At the start of the July I turn, German player rolls two dice and obtains a 10, which is modified to an 11. Cross referencing with the table shows that the Soviet Politico-Military establishment is reeling as a result of the German blows: the Soviets must deduct 2 infantry RPs from all those MDs assigned special replacements (since no MDs produce RPs; before August 1) on their July I turn. Their rail capacity for July I must lose 30%, in addition to any rail strikes conducted by the Germans. The Germans roll a die and obtain 2 overruns at 7-1 odds.

Worse, the Soviets must endure the modifier on ground combat throughout the July I turn. The Soviets must also contend with the German ability to conduct two 7-1 overruns on July I, and they are not properly deployed to deal with this unexpected and unfortunate (for them) circumstance.

The Germans capitalize on the Soviet confusion and despair in the July I turn and take Minsk and Tallinn, and completely occupy the Baltic MD for a total of 6 VPs when added to Lvov, Riga and Kaunas. The +1 ground combat modifier and two well placed overruns at 7-1 odds succeed in annihilating 120 points of Soviets in the July I turn, which raises the current total to 7 VPs. This exceeds the minimum VP requirement for July Il (6 VPs) to roll on the Political Instability table by 1.

The Germans roll again on the instability table at the beginning of their July II turn. The Soviet Player freezes in horror as the German hot dice turn up an 11, which is modified to a 12 thanks to the +1 modifier resulting from the German exceeding the minimum by 1. Since it is before October I, however, the Soviets need not check for surrender. The Germans roll to determine how many overruns at 7-1 odds they receive. The Soviet High Command must find a way to limit the German advance in the face of all these disadvantages without suffering excessive casualties.

During the Soviet half of the July II turn, the Soviets launch a series of sharp counterattacks and inflict 53 points on the Germans. Adding to our would-be Guderian's frustration, he only inflicted 88 points on the Soviet player in the July II turn in addition to the 6 points lost in the Soviet half of July II as a result of exchanges for a total of 94 points, just 6 short of getting 1 extra VP for force losses.

The total stands at 6 (Baltic MD, Kaunas, Riga, Tallinn, Lvov, and Minsk each yielding 1 VP,) but the German must subtract 1 point for the 50+ combat losses. The total of 5 points does not meet the 8 point minimum for August 1. The Soviet player breathes a deep sigh of relief as he will be able to conduct his August I turn with some normality.

However, the chart shows that on August II our stalwart Soviet must find a way to avoid giving 10 VPs to the German player to prevent a roll at the beginning of the August II turn.

The German looks longingly at Smolensk and its one VP guarded by a 22 point Soviet stack of pure AEC/ATEC and contemplates the wisdom of a low odds attack there in conjunction with making many dubious attacks on the front aimed at gaining 100 or more points in Soviet losses and taking out Kiev. If all these attacks work, the German player will possess the minimum 10 points to make an August IIinstability check. However, the price of failure is potentially high, while a roll on the Instability Table does not in any way guarantee favorable results.