Let's now look at the history behind the start date for Operation Barbarossa. Many people insist that 15 May 1941 was the original planned date for the start of the invasion, which was then delayed until 22 June for some reason such as the Balkans campaign or the poor weather in the spring of 1941.

The 15 May date comes from a misreading of Fuhrer Directive 21, which first specified the invasion of the Soviet Union. The directive did not actually give a starting date, it merely specified that all preparations requiring more than 8 weeks were to be complete by 15 May.

Thus, the invasion would not occur before 15 May, but its actual start date would likely be later. The Army High Command (OKH), in a 5 Dec. 1940 conference attended by Hitler, set "the end of May" as their start date. The Kriegsmarine, on its 12 March 1941 timetable, specified a start date of 22 May. Various departments of the Wehrmacht High Command (OKW) assumed a start date of 1 June, such as the 24 Jan. 1941 oil memo or the 24 Feb. 1941 note in Halder's diary. The upshot of all this is that the earliest the invasion would start was in the period 22 May to 1 June.

Why, then, was Barbarossa delayed until 22 June? Was it due to operations in Greece, the attack on Yugoslavia, or the weather?

Balkans

Operation Marita, the attack on Greece, was originally planned as a one-week operation involving four divisions to secure the northern Aegean coast. The Germans wanted no repeat of the Salonika enclave of World War I, where the Allied lodgment was a constant worry on the Central Power's flank. Of course, this line of thought led to a continual expansion of Marita, to secure more and more of Greece, until it became a multi-week, multi-division operation to conquer all the Greek mainland. This meant that not all divisions in the operation would be available in time for the start of the Barbarossa, but the Germans apparently accepted this without delaying Barbarossa.

Operation 25 was the invasion of Yugoslavia, ordered when a pro-Allied coup toppled the pro-Axis Yugoslav government. Operation 25 did not delay the build-up of forces for Barbarossa, as the bulk of the forces tagged for Operation 25 weren't scheduled to move to the eastern front until later. Operation 25 delayed the start of Marita from 1 April to 6 April, so that both could start together, but it also significantly aided Marita, allowing the Germans to move through southern Yugoslavia and outflank the Greek-British defense lines in Greece.

Operation 25 was over by mid-April, allowing most of its divisions enough time to refit and move east in time for Barbarossa. (Divisions were pulled from Yugoslavia starting 14 April. These took an average of 10 days to return to their barracks in Germany and another 3 weeks to refit-time enough for most of them to be ready for Barbarossa even as early as 15 May.)

Of the divisions in Operations Marita and 25, many would have been ready for Barbarossa by the end of May. Of the others, 11 were allocated to the OKH Reserves and thus weren't needed to be in place until later. In fact, the only part of Barbarossa affected by the Balkans campaign was the southern wing of Army Group South, in Romania. There, the German 11th Army was to receive the bulk of its forces from units in the Balkan campaign. In March 1941, therefore, the Germans removed the 11th Army from the initial assault forces. It would guard the Romanian oil fields, advancing into the Soviet Union only after the invasion had started.

Thus, it appears the Balkans campaign had minimal effect on Barbarossa, and the start date was not affected.

The case for bad weather is equally poor. It is true that the invasion could not start until the spring mud season passed and the ground was firm enough to support combat operations.

Anecdotal evidence suggests the winter of 1940/41 was long, thus delaying the spring mud, the drying-up, and the invasion. Memoirs of some German generals who commanded field forces present this idea. The actual conditions across the entire front are unknown--it may have still been wet as late as mid-May, but it's unlikely this persisted even as late as early June. Furthermore, there is no documentary evidence at the high command level that the weather delayed the campaign.

Delay Cause?

If the delay wasn't due to the weather or the Balkans, what was its cause? It appears to be German industry. In August 1940, the Germans decided to expand their field army by 50%, from 120 divisions to 180. (This expansion made the simultaneous occupation of France and invasion of the USSR possible.) In November 1940, it became clear that German industry simply could not equip the new divisions fast enough-and this situation did not improve later. The last new infantry division would not be ready until 20 May 1941, and a full 40% of the new divisions used at least some captured French equipment in order to come up to strength.

The mechanized forces also suffered from shortages. Even when captured French equipment was used, a full five divisions (13th, 17th, and 18th Panzer, 14th and 18th Motorized Infantry) were plagued with shortages of material throughout May.

As late as 20 May, five divisions (20th Panzer, 14th, 18th, 25th, and 36th Motorized Infantry) were almost kept from moving east in order to continue building up. For example, 10th Motorized Infantry Division assembled in the east without its equipment, only receiving it on or after 10 June. Thus, it appears that equipment shortages prevented the Germans from launching Barbarossa much sooner than 22 June 1941.

(For further details on this subject, see "The German attack on the USSR: the Destruction of a Legend," M. van Creveld, European Studies Review, Jan. 1972.)

Now, what does all this mean for an early Barbarossa in FITE/SE? Well, here goes: Start preparations for the game on May I 41. This is a pre-game turn: the game hasn't started yet. The German player checks his initial forces, as described below, and may plan airborne operations.

The game may start, at the German player's option, any turn from May II 41 to Jun II 41 (it must start Jun II 41).

At the start of each turn, the German player rolls for weather, adjusts his initial forces, and then decides whether or not to begin the game. If he doesn't start play, the turn is another pre-game turn, and the next turn begins.

Weather

The weather for May I 41 is:

Zone A: Mud
Zone B: Mud
Zone C: Mud
Zone D: Clear
Zone G: Clear

Initial Forces/initial Reinforcements

The German initial forces are as listed on the FITE/SE Axis order of baffle, with deductions as listed below. The German initial reinforcements enter as follows: the Jun II 41 forces (minus the deductions) enter on game turn 1 (the turn the game begins) and the Jul I 41 forces (minus deductions) enter on game turn 2 (one turn after the game begins). For example, if the game begins on May II 41, the Jun II 41 reinforcements enter on May II instead, and the Jul I reinforcements on Jun I. All other German reinforcements appear on their listed turns.

Balkan Campaign

Deduct the indicated forces from the German initial forces, Jun II 41 reinforcements, and Jul I 41 reinforcements. These forces are still involved in the Balkan campaign in some form, such as occupying conquered areas, watching Turkey, moving out of the Balkans, or refitting. They become available on the turns indicated below. When they become available, add them to any army, panzer group, or reserves of the initial forces in Greater Germany or Romania (if the game has not yet started) or receive them as reinforcements (if the game has started).

Unit	ID	From	Available
11-10 Pz XX	8	4th PG	Roll
10-10 Pz XX	11	1st PG	Roll
10-10 Pz XX	14	1st PG	Roll
9-10 Pz XX	9	1st PG	Jun I
9-10 Pz XX	16	1st PG	Jun I
7-10 Pg XX	LSSAH (SS)	1st PG	Jun I
9-10 Mot XX	Reich (SS)	2nd PG	Jun I
6-10 Mot XX	16	1st PG	Roll
6-10 Mot XX	60	Jul I	Jul I
6-8 Mtn XX	1	17th A	Roll
6-8 Jager XX	101	17th A	Roll
8-6 Inf XX	46	Jul I	Jul I
8-6 Inf XX	50	11th A	Jun II
8-6 Inf XX	72	11th A	Jun II
8-6 Inf XX	76	11th A	Roll
7-6 Inf XX	125	Jun II	Jun II
7-6 Inf XX	197	Jun II	Roll
7-6 Inf XX	198	11th A	Roll
7-6 Inf XX	239	11th A	Roll
4-10* Mot III	GD	2nd PG	Jun I
3-8 mot Art III	612	1st PG	Roll
1-2-8 mot Art III	49	11th A	Jun II
1-2-8 mot Art III	623	2nd PG	Jun I
2-3-8 Art III	70	9th A	Roll
2-3-8 Art III	501	17th A	Roll
2-3-8 Art III	511	1st PG	Jun I
2-3-8 Art III	606	9th A	Roll
2-3-8 Art III	785	16th A	Roll
2-3-8 Art III	786	4th A	Roll
2-3-8 Art III	787	11th A	Jun II
2-10 mot hv AA III	18 (LW)	11th A	Jun II
2-8 Eng III	541	16th A	Roll
2-8 Eng III	617	11th A	Jun II
2-8 Eng III	620	17th A	Roll
2-6 Eng III	690	11th A	Jun II
0-1-5 Cons III	45	1st PG	Jun II
2-1-10 Aslt Gun II	184	9th A	Roll
2-1-10 Aslt Gun II	190	11th A	Jun II
2-1-10 Aslt Gun II	191	1st PG	Roll
2-1-10 Aslt Gun II	197	1st PG	Roll
1-10 mot AT II	525	17th A	Roll
1-10 mot AT II	560	11th A	Roll

Unit

FITE/SE unit, by strength, type, and unit ID.

From

Unit is listed as part of the indicated FITE/SE initial forces or reinforcements. (A: Army, PG: Panzer Group, Jun II: Jun II 41 reinforcements, Jul I: Jul I 41 reinforcements.)

Available

Turn unit becomes available. "Roll" means roll one die for the unit on May II 41: on a roll of 1-5, it is available that turn; on a roll of 6 it is available on Jun I 41.

In addition, reduce the initial Luftwaffe group allowance by 5. Increase it by 5 on Jun I 41.

Unprepared Divisions

German industry was unable to equip all the new divisions Germany needed to invade the Soviet Union and occupy western Europe. In particular, the 17 infantry divisions of the 13th and 14th Waves, most of which were tagged for occupation duties, appear to have had the most trouble coming up to full strength. Accordingly, roll two dice on the May I turn. The number rolled is the number of infantry divisions the German player must remove from his initial forces, for occupation duties while the Wave 13 and 14 forces complete their formation. Half these divisions (round fractions down) become available on May II 41 and the rest become available on Jun I 41.

German Army combat/motorized divisions also had problems in equipping. After deducting the Balkan campaign forces from the initial forces, on May I 41 roll one die for each German Army panzer and motorized infantry division and consult the following chart to see when the unit is available:

Die Roll Turn Available

1 May I
2 May I
3 May II
4 May II
5 Jun I
6 Jun II

If a unit is not available on May I, remove it from the initial forces. It becomes available on the indicated turn. When it becomes available, add it to any army, panzer group, or reserves of the initial forces in Greater Germany or Romania (if the game has not yet started) or receive it as a reinforcement (if the game has started).

Axis Allies

Romania enters the war on the first game turn (although, per the standard rules, its forces do not operate during the surprise turn). Hungary and Finland enter the war on the second game turn. All Slovakian Jun II 41 reinforcements appear on the first game turn; all Italian Jul I 41 reinforcements appear on the second game turn.

Soviet Union

I haven't worked out all the aspects of an early invasion on the Soviet order of battle, but the following should represent the most important effects:

16th Army

Place the units of the 16th Army as indicated in the Strategic Reserve Forces only if the game begins on the Jun II 41 turn. If the game begins on Jun I 41, place these units in any rail hexes on maps 7A and 8A. If the game begins on May II 41, receive these units as reinforcements from the Eastern MDs.

Other Strategic Reserve Forces

All units of the Strategic Reserve Forces, other than those of the 16th Army, cannot move at all on May II 41 if the game begins that turn. If the game begins on Jun I 41, they have their movement allowances halved that turn.

Reinforcements

Soviet reinforcements appear as follows:

Listed Turn Actual Turn
Jun II 41 Game Turn 1
Jul I 41 Game Turn 2
Jul II 41 Game Turn 3
Aug I 41 Game Turn 4
Aug II 41 Game Turn 5
Sep I 41 Game Turn 6
Sep II 41 Game Turn 7
Oct I 41 Game Turn 8
Oct II 41 Game Turn 9
Nov I 41 Game Turn 10
Nov II 41 Game Turn 11
Dec I 41 Game Turn 12
Dec II 41 Dec I 41
Jan I 42 Jan I 42

From Jan I 42 on, Soviet reinforcements appear on their regularly scheduled turn.

Analysis

What's the effect of all this? For weather, there is a one third chance of mud in the critical weather zone C on May II 41. Mud would dramatically decrease the power of the surprise attack, prompting most players to delay the invasion until Jun I, when zone C is guaranteed to be clear.

More important than the weather is the reduction in German forces. On May II 41, approximately (on average) 6 or 7 panzer divisions, 5 mech/motorized divisions, 6 or 7 other divisions, and sundry smaller forces will be unavailable for a variety of reasons. This is a significant diminution of strength for the surprise attack and first turn, and many Soviet forces in the border districts may survive the onslaught. Is gaining two extra clear-weather turns worth a weaker invasion? Not in my book--a strong invasion is the best way to inflict losses on the Soviets and gain territory.

On Jun I 41, however, the picture is different. On average, only 2 panzer divisions, 1 motorized division, and 2 other divisions will be unavailable--in effect, a strongly reinforced panzer corps will miss out on the invasion. While the effect of the panzer corps will be missed, I'd find it very tempting to start with a slightly weaker invasion and get an extra turn of clear weather.

Let's see what happens. If you use this early Barbarossa rule, write up your experiences and share them with us all via EXchange.