Last year Soviet defector Viktor Suvorov published Icebreaker, in which he claims that the Soviets were planning to attack Nazi Germany on 6 July 1941, only to be preempted by Fall Barbarossa on 22 June. Although I personally believe his hypothesis to be unlikely, Suvorov presents quite a bit of circumstantial evidence in support of his argument, and any enthusiast of the Eastern Front should read his account.

In any event, this subject begs for a full treatment within a wargaming context, and Charles Sharp's Operation Groza scenario ambitiously attempts to do just that. Jason Long and I excitedly seized the opportunity to game Sharp's treatment of Icebreaker. Jason agreed to command the Axis forces, and I chortled at the chance to actually do something offensively with the much-abused 1941 Soviets.

Here, then, are the results of that encounter.

July I

All the border MDs have been massively reinforced, particularly the absurdly weak Baltic MD and the center point of my offensive, the Odessa MD. I have decided to pursue the Soviet strategy as described by Suvorov: a series of holding attacks along the German-Polish front and a bold strike into Romania aimed at the Ploesti oilfields.

Along the central front, I ignore the very strong panzer divisions and plan to wreak havoc on as many German infantry divisions and their non- divisional units as possible. I gamble on making many marginal attacks designed to surround enemy infantry stacks with ZOCs, as opposed to fewer, but safer attacks, which will merely push the German front back a hex or two.

I anticipate that my fragile tank divisions will not last long, and will be best used to attrit the Germans, and diminish their capability to both reinforce Romania and push into the border MDs. This is particularly worrisome in the Kiev MD, since a sustained German advance there will take the wind out of my Romanian operations and widen the front.

Almost surprisingly my ground attacks achieve nearly complete success, and I manage to cadre or eliminate nearly 20 German divisions along with various supporting units. Memel falls, allowing me to shorten my front. In the air, however, the vastly outnumbered Luftwaffe either smashes my hapless fighters, or bypasses them with impunity and targets with success my few good attack bombers (IL-2s, Pe-2s, etc.).

The Soviets also enjoy dramatic success in Romania. The weak Romanian forces south of the 11th Army are swept aside, and a paradrop behind the boundary between the 11th Army and the Romanians to the north allows the Soviets to blast a three-hex corridor. The ensuing exploitation phase results in the entire 11th Army being surrounded by Soviet armored pincers, while all of the Romanians north of it are also cut off from supply. Soviet armor occupies the Carpathian rail lines crossing the Romanian- Hungarian border, thus preventing any major Axis reinforcement of northern Romania.

The final losses for the turn are:

Soviet: 80.
German: 164.
Romanian: 56.
Italian: 9

July II

The Axis forces stir awake like an angry hornet's nest, exacting retribution wherever possible. Many Soviet c/m divisions are smashed due to their awkward positioning as a result of the no-holds-barred surprise Soviet turn. German counterattacks are greatly aided by the lack of Soviet fighter cover, which has been placed somewhat to the rear in anticipation of forward Soviet positions collapsing.

The Bialystok salient is greatly reduced, and Soviet errors allow a 50-point panzer corps to conduct an overrun. Meanwhile, the 11th Army forms a hedgehog of strong 25-30 point stacks in rough terrain, and the Romanians north of the 11th Army retreat towards the Hungarian border, but are unable to dislodge the Soviet tank forces astride the rail line.

Two 10-5-8 tank divisions plus some c/m cadres along the Bucharesti axis dissolve under counterattacks by a combination of Romanian remnants and newly arriving Germans, including a panzer corps containing the 2nd and 5th Panzer Divisions.

On the Soviet half of the turn, I enjoy limited success along with some highly frustrating failures. Two infantry corps from the 11th Army are eliminated, but a third manages to survive on a 1/6 chance of an AS result. This corps, as luck would have it, lies upon the very rail line I need to logistically support my drive into Romania. Along the central front, two German motorized divisions and one panzer division are cadred in exchanges.

One of these motorized divisions was providing a 27-point panzer corps south of Memel its sole retreat route. I then massively attack this completely surrounded panzer corps with a 5/6 chance of totally annihilating it-and roll a one (again). VVS performance is lackluster this turn as well, with one particularly embarassing situation where 15 fighters attacked three Me 109Fs bypassing the escort screen, but failed to return, much less abort, the offending 109s (which then proceeded to abort two Pe-2s). But not to worry.

The NKVD has prepared some warm accommodations in Lubyanka for the respective commanders in charge of these minor setbacks...

Losses for July II:
Soviet: 175.
German: 81.
Romanian: 4

August I

Along the Polish front, Axis forces begin to build up some steam and attack in great strength everywhere now that most of the Soviet armor has been smashed or disbanded. The Bialystok salient is completely wiped from the map, and further errors on my part in this region allow one more overrun by that pesky fifty-point panzer corps. (Never again!)

Jason butchers many, many infantry divisions. Seeing the weakness of my forces, Jason begins to place strong armored wedges in advanced positions, although he is now more careful about flank and rear protection after the narrow escape of the panzer corps near Memel on July II.

In Romania, some 11th Army units manage to break out, and the Romanians north of the 11th Army, spearheaded by the Romanian armored division, sweep aside Soviet forces blocking the rail line running into Hungary. This group of units (8 divisions and some non-divs) huddles around in a shallow arc by the rail line. Although unable to threaten me greatly, they are unquestionably alive, kicking, and untouchable in the mountains.

The German forces along the Bucharesti axis continue to deal out death and destruction in limited quantities, but the hapless Romanians AH themselves against a sole Russian 4-6 bravely holding the marshes by the Danube.

The Russian half of the turn is largely defensive in nature. No attacks occur in Poland, where I simply aim to reestablish my crumbling front and begin preparations for two fort lines: one in the Baltic region and another running from the southern edge of the Pripet to south of Lwow. Along the entire length of the central front I only possess about a dozen c/rn divisions.

In Romania I destroy the last pocketed units, and now possess the rail lines necessary to drive towards Bucharesti. Unfortunately, the time taken to do this has allowed Jason to establish a short and strong front running from Constanta to the southern edge of the Carpathians. I now realize that, given current circumstances, taking Bucharesti or Ploesti will be difficult, if not impossible. Additionally, there's the nuisance of those eight enemy divisions in the mountains near the Hungarian border up north that have managed to sneak away. The 15 or so c/m divisions in Romania are being wasted, and cannot hope to drive across the strong Axis river positions.

This turn marks the end of the first phase of Operation Groza, and in terms of the operation's goals can only be termed a Soviet failure: neither Ploesti nor Bucharesti have been taken. On the other hand, Axis forces have suffered enormous losses, and the damage they've received could make a decisive difference in the next, defensive phase of the war.

Certainly Jason's losses will diminish his ability to lengthen the front. If I can prevent an operational breakthrough and continue to inflict casualties, perhaps some form of defensive victory can be achieved before the onset of mud. We shall see...

Losses for August I:

Soviet: 205.
German: 56.
Romanian: 12

August II

Massive attrition battles continue along the central front as the Germans sweep aside the thin infantry screen placed in front of the emerging Soviet fort lines.

Exchanges in the center result in two cadred panzer divisions. Panzer wedges in the Baltic and Kiev MDs threaten to prematurely dislocate the Red Army, whose counteroffensive capability has diminished to about a half dozen c/m divisions along the central front. In Romania, desultory fighting between Axis and Soviet forces result in moderate losses.

The Soviet half of the turn sees a substantial stiffening in defensive positions, as 12-20 point stacks occupy newly constructed forts backed up by airbases. Two massive Soviet counterattacks in the Baltic and Kiev MDs manage to reestablish defensive lines while exchanging against two more panzer divisions and killing outright many valuable non-divs, including two 5-3-8 artillery units.

Large numbers of weak infantry divisions and newly-formed tank brigades occupy the back lines and give Soviet forces in Poland a much needed boost in armored strength.

In Romania, I decide to pull back entirely behind the original border and place most of the region's armor halfway between AGS and northern Bessarabia to gain the benefit of interior lines. A half dozen other c/m divisions lie between Odessa and the southern border to give the Axis pause before committing their slender mobile forces in any overly aggressive moves.

I wish to lengthen the front and give myself some room to maneuver in order to perhaps try my skill at some kind of a backhand blow by enticing Jason to commit himself into a thrust across the border. I do not believe he possesses the forces in the theater to achieve decisive results, and I can perhaps hand him a bloody nose if he takes my bait.

On the other hand, Jason probably realizes this as well, and we will likely spar against each other at a distance, like two prize fighters with equally long jabs afraid of coming too close to the other and exposing themselves.

Losses for August II:

Soviet: 247
German: 68
Romanian: 6
Slovakian: 2

September I

The mighty Wehrmacht begins to rumble threateningly along the length of the Central Front, as the 200+ points of attrition per turn starts to tell on the Red Army. In the Baltic region a panzer division manages to create a minor breakthrough near the coast where I was unable to create a double line, and 1st Panzerarmee in AGS threatens to flank my Lwow position. In Romania, a small c/m force bursts from northern Bessarabia, forming the weaker link of a possible double pincer on the Kiev MD.

I counterattack vigorously during my turn with wildly mixed results. In the Baltic region, I eliminate SS Totenkopf which is covering the sole retreat route of the rampaging panzer corps. I then manage an EX at 3-1 (-1) against said panzer corps, which, now completely surrounded, surrenders. Since the Germans lack any other c/m forces in this sector, this completely restores my crumbling northern front, and ensures my retaining Riga.

Events in the Kiev MD, on the other hand, are a complete disaster. One of my two counterattacks manages to evict a panzer corps from an important defensive position, but my other one not only fails, but fails spectacularly as I roll an AR at 3-1 (-1), and the forces performing the attack retreat onto the back line, which now becomes my front line!

This could not have occurred at a worse time and place. A German breakthrough here will pocket substantial forces in and around Lwow, allow a link-up with the Bessarabian armor, and overrun my airfields to boot.

In Romania I manage to isolate Jason's small mobile force breaking into the Kiev MD's rear, which should take a lot of sting out of it-for a turn, anyway.

Losses for September I:

Soviet. 211
German: 72
Romanian: 2

September II

The Western and Baltic MDs are (relatively) quiet this turn due to the lack of Panzer forces, but who cares? The Germans make things happen in the Kiev MD, where things really count.

For the first time in the game, Jason creates a major breakthrough by capitalizing on the ineptitude of the local commanders in the Kiev MD (see last turn). All the things I feared happening do indeed happen: airfields are overrun, the Lwow forces face pocketing, and my entire situation here has become completely untenable. My only consolation is that I now have . volunteers" for my first penal battalion, thanks to a surge in recruitment from the Kiev MD commanders.

My own riposte is underwhelming due to more tactical ineptitude. How many AS's can I roll at 3-1 (-1)? Plenty apparently. Enough to make a series of savage counterattacks look positively benign. Not a single counterattack against German panzer penetrations succeeds, despite a 2/3 chance per attack that each will have some positive result. Next time I play this I'm going to insist that all die rolls be made in a cup.

Well, at this point we call the game, due to October mud and pressing real-life concerns. I'm pleased to say that the only major city Jason can realistically seize from me is Lwow. On the other hand, Ploesti is still Axis owned. My reading of the situation is a stalemate, although in the long run the Wehrmacht is in deep trouble given its relatively large losses, in both infantry and panzer forces. Call it a Soviet minor victory.

Losses for September II:

Soviet: 200
German: 49
Romanian: 7

Total German and Soviet Losses from July I - September II

Soviet: 1118
German: 490

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