The world moved in 1989 and the Cold War ended. Certainly this was one of the most important years of this century. Eastern Europe became "free" and it looks like the Soviet Union will never be the same. No one could have predicted the course of events that happened. All the history pointed towards a Soviet crack down not the break down that happened. "Solidarity" takes a look at what could have happened if events came out differently.
Solidarity is a Matrix Game (who would have guessed that Chris Engle running an MG!).
Just to recap the rules, every turn each player gets to make 2 arguments (Action, Result, and 3 Reasons) about what they want to happen. These arguments tell what events might happen in the months of May and June in 1989. I assume that this game starts right after the crushing of the student movement in China.
Four people sent in orders for this turn: Ian Engle, Chris Blair, Dale Kemper, and Chris Engle. Rather than present the arguments person by person, they are organized by country - since only 1 argument can win in a country in any turn.
CZECHOSLOVAKIA
ACTION: Riots -- Czech workers strike, then riot over Soviet domination of their country. The Czech Government is unable to cope with the massive uprising the riots generate.
RESULT: Anarchy -- Czech government collapses. Various committee factions attempt to form new government.
REASONS: Waste and Ineffeciency -- Czech government couldn't do its job, Centrally Controlled Economy -- Czech workers dissatisfied, Prague Spring -- Czechs tried it before.
ACTION: YES AND -- The Government does collapse.
RESULT: New element -- A Socialist Government forms in Prague.
REASONS: Czech history -- The Czechs have a strong history of
Democracy, Western oriented -- The Czechs are western oriented, Western
Democracy -- The west have strong Democratic Socialist governments.
ACTION: YES BUT -- The Czech government collapses, but
RESULT: Military Solution -- The Soviet Army and Warsaw Pact forces
Invade and take control after serious fighting with both civilian
militia and the Czech Army. Unrest Is put down with an iron hand.
REASONS: The Red Army -- Doesn't want to loose control of the Warsaw
Pact, Ghost of Stalin -- Reversion to Stalinist policies, Fear -- Fear
at the Kremlin that if Czechoslovakia is allowed to rebel the rest of
Eastern Europe will as well.
POLAND
ACTION: Free elections promised --Free Parliamentary elections are
held In Poland.
RESULT: New element -- Solidarity wins a majority of the seats.
REASONS: Elections promised --President Jaruzelski agreed to free
elections in the round table talks in the winter, Solidarity --
Solidarity is very popular, Martial law -- Martial Law didn't solve any
problems so why not try something new.
ACTION: YES AND -- Solidarity is in a majority in Parliament, and
RESULT: New element -- Poland is now controlled by a
Noncommunist government.
REASONS: Glastnost -- The new openness allows for alternate
views, Elections Promised -- FREE elections were promised, Establish
Independence -- Eastern Europians strive for Independence.
HUNGARY
ACTION: Non-violent Demonstration --The Hungarian government takes
the Iron Curtain.
RESULT: Iron Curtain Down -- The Iron Curtain is removed from the
Matrix.
REASONS: Hungary has a record of going against Moscow -- Hungary
has always tended to buck Moscow, Magyar Nationalism -- Taking down the
Iron Curtain Is a sign of Hungarian Nationalism, Establish Independence
-- The Hungarian government has been Socialist Democracy by ousting
Janos Kader (Stalin's man) on May 8th (i.e. Just before the game
started).
SOVIET UNION
ACTION: Non-violent Demonstrations -- Siberian Chukchis establish
Chukchi National Cultural Schools.
RESULT: New element -- Chukchi National Identity is strong.
REASONS: Ethnocentric Russians -- Russians are ethnocentric, Ethnic
Unrest -- Ethnic identities are on the upswing, Glastnost -- Glastnost
allows for peaceful displays of national heritage.
ACTION: The KGB -- An Uzbeki national leader is killed.
RESULT: Riots -- The Uzbekis take to the street in
violent protests.
REASONS: Anger -- "They" had him killed!, Ethnic Unrest --
"They" are not Uzbeks or Muslims!, Riots -- So we must RIOT!
There axe a lot of things that could happen in this turn. Dale Kemper's argument to replay the Prague Spring would be a dramatic change from what actually happened (but in fact that Is what I thought would happen last spring). Chris Blair seems to be trying to replay what actually happened. And then there axe my brothers arguments for the central astan republics. I personally favor the reform movement so I argued for the Czechs and Hungarians.
So what actually happened?
What the Newspapers Tell
CZECHOSLOVAKIA
"The Czechoslovakian government fell on June 1st after two weeks of rioting. The Soviet Army moved in to restore order after a week of guessing about how they would react. People on the spot report that it is like the Prague Spring all over again."
POLAND
"Solidarity scored impressive victories in todays' parliamentary elections. Initial polling indicates that the recently legalized trade union has won a clear majority."
"President Jaruzelski today asked Tadeusz Mazowlecki to become Poland's first non-communist prime minister since WWII."
USSR
(on the 8th page of the Washington Post) "The central Chukchi national group moves to take advantage of President Gorbachev's move toward openness by opening National Culture Schools, which promote Chukchi language and national identity."
This means that Dale's Stalinist argument won in Czechoslovakia. My argument in Hungary failed. Chris Blair's arguments in Poland both happened, and Ian's Chukchi argument won out over the Uzbeki riots. Rather than explain the process where by I resolved each argument, I will explain indepth how Dale's argument won in Czechoslovakia.
The first step in resolving any turn is to find out the resolution number of each argument. A normal argument has a number 3 (le 3 reasons supporting it - so it wins on a roll of 3 or less on a 6 sided die). Dale's 2 arguments (the first one and the yes but) both have a resolution number of 3, my yes and argument has a resolution number of 4.
Then the dice were rolled. My brother helped me do this. Simultaneously we rolled a die for each of the 3 arguments. If the number was that arguments resolution number or less then It still had a chance of winning. Only when just 1 argument remained in play was the winner declared.
The first round of rolls had all of the arguments ruled out. If this had happened to an argument that was not opposed (like my Hungarian argument) then no action happens that turn. On the other hand, if there were several arguments for a country, and all of them got ruled out, then all of them would be brought back for another round of rolls. In the second round of rolls, Dale's anarchy argument was quickly ruled out. It was only in the fourth round of rolling that my reformist argument was ruled out leaving the Red Army free to roll into Prague.
So, on to the next turn ...
Any player who wins an argument in a country gets the priviledge of making the first argument for that country in the next turn. In a face to face game this is easily done by letting the player argue first in the next turn. Play by Mail games can only handle this if the player assumes he is going to win and sends in his next turn along with his original turn. often times players forget to do this. If no first arguments are sent for the next turn then it is resolved like this turn. (By then way, I took advantage of my referee position to make a YES AND argument against Dale's orders - This is not strictly speaking illegal but it is an advantage that other players can't use unless people send their next turn orders in advance.)
Dale was the only person to send in an order for next turn ...
"The USSR puts an Iron grip on all Eastern Bloc countries, reinforcing troops already there and placing their reserves on standby."
This is a good reactionary argument, but unfortunately Dale only has the advantage of arguing first for Czechoslovakia - not the whole Communist Bloc. I must assume that this will be applied specifically to Czechoslovakia and I will accept any counter arguments against it. But if Dale wants to make it apply to the whole bloc, he can. (All you have to do, Dale, is say so in your next orders.)
That about wraps up this turn. Feel free to jump in to the game next turn. All Stalinists and Bleeding Hearts are welcomed (as are any other types of people).
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© Copyright 1990 by Chris Engle
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