Beating the System

Wolfpack Strategy

by Charles Starks


WOLFPACK, published in Strategy and Tactics #47, is the third in SPI's line of solitaire games. Their first, THE FALL OF ROME, floundered under a combination of difficult rules and lack of interest; their second, OPERATION OLYMPIC: THE INVASION OF JAPAN, can be played either as a solitaire Ora two-player game, but in my opinion is best suited for the latter.

In WOLFPACK SPI has created what could be called a true solitaire game, in the sense of the card game. WOLFPACK, like solitaire (or canfield, if you prefer), is a game in which one player attempts to beat a system which is maintained almost entirely by the workings of chance. Although, as in solitaire, the player can make certain technical decisions which will influence the game, a great part of the game is based on luck. This is not to say that it is not a playable game. It is. However it is in the highest sense of the word a solitaire game, and the buyer who expects anything else is going to be disappointed.

WOLFPACK is subtitled 'Submarine Warfare in the North Atlantic, 1942-44'. However all the scenarios are taken from the early months of 1943 (Feb., Mar.. April, and May). Well, we can ignore that minor ambiguity; no doubt the data for the creation of different scenarios is readily available, although the 1944 scenarios would be pretty grim for the Germans.

The map, printed in light and dark blue on SPI's heavy stock, covers the convoy routes between Britain and Newfoundland; Iceland and Greenland from the map's northern boundary, the sea the southern boundary. The actual playing area is only about 13" x 29", the rest of the space being taken up by the twelve assorted search tables, combat tables, etc, Don't start sneering, because you'll need every one of them out where you can see them; and in any case no real good Could be done by expanding the playing area. The Germans have enough trouble handling what's already there.

The rules are the usual SPI quality, well thought out and presented, with one major difference, they are in the form of an actual booklet, a la Avalon Hill, rather than the accordion style which SPI has used heretofore. I for one hope that this development will be permanent, as the frustration of wielding a huge multifolded sheet in a confined space without destroying your game in progress is incredible. The German counters represent individual submarines and the larger pack formations, done in black on a gray background. Convoys, escort units, air units, and other Allied markers are done in black on green. Aesthetically, the board and counters go well together. and everything is easy to find and read.

As stated in the Developer's Notes, WOLFPACK is a solitaire game due to the nature of the submarine war. The convoys went out on a regular schedule, headed in a more or less defined direction; anti-sub elements either escorted the convoys in the form of ships, or flew patrols in the form of planes. All in all, there is not much that an Allied player could do in a game on this subject. Basically each turn the player manuevers his U-boats to sight convoys, 5 of which begin the game on the board; the other 15 enter one per turn. Each is accompanied by a facedown escort unit whose identity is unknown to the player. Twelve of these escorts are dummies, the product of faulty intelligence, the rest are real naval units of strengths varying with each scenario.

A WOLFPACK turn goes something like this: first, the player rolls the die to see if a new storm has formed on the edge of the map and to determine in which direction any already existing storms will move. Then he carries out air searches, which are resolved by computing the "Air-Sub Product" and them rolling the die. Then he determines in which directions the various convoys will move by rolling the die; if a convoy passes through a U-boat's search zone, he rolls a die to see whether or not the convoy is sighted. Any anti-submarine combat movement is resolved by rolling the die.

Finally, he manuevers his U-boats on the board mounts attacks on sighted convoys. These attacks, and the counterattacks of the escort groups, are also resolved by die roll.

Incidentally, every table in WOLFPACK is based on a ten-digit system rather than a six-digit one. The counter mix includes what SPI calls chits, marked from 0-9; their advice is to pull them out of a cup or some such. This is all very well in theory, but after a while your fingers go sort of numb. I recommend that if you can buy a twenty-sided die, do so. If not for this game, then for the others that SPI is putting out, in which they are starting to use ten-digitbased tables more and more. It will save you a lot of effort.

WOLFPACK is a challenging and playable game, but it is for one player. If you need games which you can play with yourself, then I'd advise you to try this one. Although luck does play a considerable part, careful strategy on the part of the player is also necessary. WOLFPACK provides you with a system which is hard to beat; but it can be done.

Beating the System Strategy

Successful German strategic options are hard to outline in detail. Since there are so many possible permutations, each turn's grouping of convoys and U-boats will require a different method of handling than the previous one. Thus the player must remain flexible to handle whatever may arise, and he must play with an eye towards the next two or three turns as well as the immediate situation. On a broad level German goals fall readily into two categories: first, sight as many convoys as possible, and second, attack the sighted convoys so as to maximize shipping losses and minimize the U-boat losses.

The sighting problem is the bane of the Germans in the game, just as it was historically. A U-boat's conning tower is too low to command much of a horizon. Nevertheless, without a successful sighting, the U-boats cannot attack, Thus, to gain the points necessary for a German win, sighting must at first take precedence over attacking.

Since the initial convoy positions, as given by Table 15.81, are statistically reduceable, it is relatively simple to determine the best initial placement hexes for the German Uboats. These initial hexes, plus the resulting odds on attempted and successful searches, are given in the accompanyIng chart. They supply the best chances of making a successful search on the first turn, while keeping the majority of the packs out of range of the Allied air bases.

Of the six convoys on the board in the first turn, HX-1 is usually too far to the east to allow a search attempt. ONS-6 is just entering the board, and thus is also too far away. That will leave you four convoys to search for in the first turn.

After the initial move. if a convoy has not been sighted, the U-boats should break up into search groups composed of two or three six-boat packs (7-6). Throughout the game, the 7-6 is the best search formation for the Germans. The 7-6 projects a search zone of three hexes, with a 3/10 chance of a successful sighting. Any lesser number of U-boats may provide the same odds, though usually worse. but will not create that three-hex search zone. This latter is valuable because a 7-6 will often be able to position itself so that it covers two possible ship paths instead of one, thus increasing the chances of attempting a search.

In addition to this the convoy's path can be covered without exposing the U-boats to attack if the convoy's escort is genuine. The 7-6 is also superior for sighting purposes compared to the larger pack groupings. Two six-boat packs, in the form of a 15-6, will project a search zone of 4/10 chance of success into three hexes. The same number of U-boats in the form of two 7-6s, will project a search zone of 6/10 overall chance of success into six hexes. The 7-6 is the most efficient method of using (for sighting purposes) the limited number of Uboats which the player will control.

As U-boat losses occur, due to air and escort attacks, the Germans will have single U-boats free which they cannot combine into packs. These individual 1-8s can be used for shadowing a sighted convoy until the main U-boat strength has gathered for the attack. They are, however, generally more useful in an outpost role.

Single U-boats cannot be searched for from the air if they are further than 10 hexs from Ulster or 7 hexes from any of the other three bases. The individual U-boat naturally does not have a great chance of conducting a successful search, But if five 1-8s are deployed in the lateral paths of the convoys which have just arrived on the board in the last two or three turns, there is a 35% chance that one of them will make a successful search. These early searches can make it easier for the main search groups to cover the ones that get by the 1-8s into the Mid-Atlantic. More importantly, if the inshore 1-8s should spot a good target, the pack will have more time to concentrate and thus more time in which to attack.

Convoys can move only in three directions; laterally, north, or south. The north and south movements are really either northeast or southeast, or northwest or southwest, depending upon whether the convoy is eastbound or westbound. On any given turn, there is a 7/10 chance of the convoy moving laterally, 2/10 chance of it moving northerly, and 1/10 chance of it moving southerly. Thus the bulk of the searchers should always be places so as to cover the unsighted convoy's lateral movement.

If you have them to spare, U-boats can be placed on the northward path as well, but unless you have U-boats which are not going to be able to reach another search area that turn, never place U-boats on the southern path. The 1/10 chance is not worth the effort. With regard to lateral movement, the most efficient way of setting UP the U-boats is to have a 7-6 cover each hex of the convoy's path in which it can be sighted. Since convoys can be sighted only when they have expended three MPs, this gives you two potential hexes in which to search for a slow convoy with a speed of 4.

If two 7-6s are placed so that they cover the third and fourth hexes of a slow convoy's lateral movement, the chances of a successful sighting become 42%. If the convoy has a movement allowance of 6, then two more 7-6s can be added to the searchers, bringing the chances up to 84%!

Of course a convoy will occasionally move north or south and thus evade the searchers temporarily, but the high speed of the U-boats easily allows them to get into another forward position and attempt to sight the convoy next turn. If the the convoys are picked up by the U- boats just as they leave their protective air umbrella, this method of searching will insure that very few indeed get across the Atlantic without being sighted.

Once a likely convoy has been sighted, the packs concentrate and attack. The attacks should be kept up each turn until the convoy comes within effective range of the Allied air bases near its destination hex. At this point the advantages of continuing to attack the convoy may well be negated by the possibilities of losing U-boats to air attack Odds of successful air search and attack must be balanced against the possibilities of sinking more merchantmen.

This period, during which a mass attack is made upon a single convoy, is the only time in which other convoys should have the opportunity to cross the Atlantic without being sighted, simply because there are not enough U-boats available to sight effectively. Nevertheless the U-boats not involved in the attack should continue search attempts, both to find another target and to eliminate as many dummy units as possible. so that the player will have an idea of how many real convoys are left on the board.

The primary object of a U-boat is to sink tonnage. The second object is to cause the convoy to receive an S2 as a result of there sinkings. This straggled condition will persist until the next attack phase, and cause the convoy to lose twice the normal amount of tonnage. These losses increase the chances of the convoy once again receiving an S2 and becoming more vulnerable to attack. The major amount of German victory points comes from attacks on straggled convoys, and for this reason the U-boats sould always concentrate heavily on a straggled convoy.

U-boat attacks must be carried out front one of the three adjacent front hexes of the convoy. The best angle of attack is from the south, since there is only a 1/10 chance that the convoy will move south next turn and thus be able to attempt to attack the U-boats.

Attacking from the north is also possible, though not recommended, attacking from directly in front should never be done unless the German player is really desperate, since there is such a high probability that the convoy will move laterally over the U-boat's hex in the next turn. The stronger the attack, the better chance the U-boats have of inflicting damage and escaping counterattack.

However, many times the Germans will have to choose between making a weak attack immediately, or waiting a turn to gather stronger forces. Waiting a turn is safer, but is puts the convoy that much closer to its air cover and to the point where the U-boats will have to break off the attack. If the Germans need points badly towards the end of the game, low-odds attacks must be made solely for the sake of inflicting some damage, no matter how small.

Storms are both a hindrance and an Asset to the player. They are a hindrance in that they slow the U-boats down amd make sighting virtually impossible. They are an asset in that they will often cause convoys to straggle and thus make them more vulnerable to attack. The player should be on the alert for the possibility that they will be able to try to sight a convoy which has been caught in a storm.

WOLFPACK is a challenging game. Even-in the early scenarios the player is hardpressed to achieve a marginal victory. The sinkings which he achieves are almost always offset by the Uboats which he loses in the process. U-boat losses occur most frequently when the convoy escort is permitted to counterattack the U-boats. Since the U-boats are attacked in separate packs of six, the higher the U-boat concentration, the more U-beats that will be lost.

Each sunken U-boat subtracts two victory points from the player's score. Air search and convoy movement, however, will rarely result in U-boat sinkings; the former is especially ineffective if the player maneuvers conservatively so as to avoid concentrating within search range of the Allied air bases.

The game could even be considered slightly unbalanced, due to the fact that the U-boat losses almost always keep the player from achieving even a marginal victory. For a true challenge, the game should be left as is. But there are two possible rules changes which could correct the problem. And believe me, when you lose even one Uboat at a particularly inopportune moment, that can give you a feeling of frustration unmatched by any other game, since you don't have an opponent to blame it on.

One possible modification is to always use Optional Rule 17.1, which presupposes the early use fo the 'Schnorkel' and makes it much more difficult for the Allied air and sea forces to sight the Uboats. This allows the U-boats to operate nearer to the Allied air bases and thus increase their chances for convoy searches and attacks. Another possibility is to change the 'Straggle' rules. Convoys straggle when caught in a storm or when under U-boat attack; the straggling makes them more vulnerable to attack and reduces the effectiveness of the convoy's escort.

This is the key to the double problem of high U-boat losses and low convoy losses, Simply change the rules so that in the Straggle Reduction Phase only those Straggle counters which were on the board at the beginning of the turn can be reduced.

This means that convoys who receive an S1 during the U-boat attack phase will still be vulnerable next turn. It doesn't seem to me very realistic to have a convoy, which was attacked and broken up during the night, be able to rejoin into its optimum defensive formation within 14 hours. Naturally whether or not they really could depend on the severity of the attack. But the nighttime conditions and the 'save your ass' factor so prevalent on a merchantman's bridge during a torpedo attack would seem to indicate that the convoy would be straggled over a longer period of time.


Back to Table of Contents -- Panzerfaust #67
To Panzerfaust/Campaign List of Issues
Back to MagWeb Master Magazine List
© Copyright 1975 by Donald S. Lowry
This article appears in MagWeb (Magazine Web) on the Internet World Wide Web. Other military history articles and gaming articles are available at http://www.magweb.com