... A column devoted to that most intriguing of games of conflict. The articles appearing here are chosen by Mr. Walter Buchanan from the pages of his HOOSIER ARCHIVES (RR#3, Lebanon, IN 46052).

In chess, the Fool's Mate is the shortest possible game. Basically, white checkmates black (sounds like an inner city melodrama) in two moves. So the thought occurred to me while driving into Angola to preside as glorious leader over the executive meeting of Chapter 18 of the East Paterson Diplomacy Club (also known as the Tri-State College Wargaming Association and Card Playing Group) to derive the shortest possible Diplomacy game.

Obviously, there are seven basic cases to consider. With differing victory criteria, these go up to 21. Since the assumption is made that the other countries make the worst possible moves, the rest of the board can be considered empty as far as armies are concerned. This is the limiting case as other units could clog up certain areas. However, convoys by other nations can be important. Russia could move A Moscow to St. Petersburg in the spring and A St. Petersburg to Norway in the fall and build A St. Pete in the winter. Then EF North Sea (C) RA Norway to Yorkshire and RA St. Petersburg to Norway in the spring followed by RA Yorkshire to Liverpool and EF North Sea (C) RA Norway to Edinburgh in the fall gains two more centers.

But would this outstrip moving across an empty board? A country can only build up so fast anyway. Mathematically, Russia can only build 4 units a year which will put her over 18 by Winter 1904. The rest mathematically can be up to 18 by Winter 1905. These are theoretical minimums and may not be possible, but they give us a limit. An 18-unit game cannot last less than 4 years except in the case of a draw.

Now, how closely can we approach this? Since Germany has picked up 3 centers in the first year in many games, it can't be too difficult. France has done the same when Germany turns his attention elsewhere.

In a trial run-through with Russia, 8 supply centers were held after 1901 moves while 15 centers were held after 1902 moves. In the latter, 5 units held on the fall move and the army built in Moscow could not position to take a new center in 1902. So the builds are the bottleneck here.

But there is still one more factor to consider. Russia can "Fool's Mate" with room to spare in 4 game years. But the rest cannot exceed 18 in 5 game years. A failure to take 3 centers the first year would delay the country an extra year. France, Germany, and Austria obviously can. Turkey must move TF Ankara to Black Sea to gain three centers by fall. Italy can move into Austria with her armies while taking Tunis or Greece by sea.

England can't get 3 more centers by Fall 1901 since, she is isolated by sea and must convoy her army out. Or more correctly, England cannot get 3 centers by herself. Spring moves of EA Liverpool to Wales, EF London to North Sea, EF Edinburgh to Norwegian Sea, and FF Brest to English Channel can mean three centers in the fall.

So the shortest possible game is 4 years for Russia and 5 for the rest, excluding draws. It is rather fascinating that the only game where you can write orders for the other players' countries, the Game of Chaos, turned out to be longer than any other game. But "Fool's Mate" in variants is another question.

I do not care for the new rulebook's victory criterion based on supply centers. As has been pointed out, a country could have 18 or more centers, but have been unable to build up due to pressure on his home centers. This is especially true of Austria, who could eventually lose after having 18 centers. But if the victory criterion of the new rulebook is used, the mathematical limitation is doubling each year assuming that every unit holds a center in the fall. As has been shown, this is possible the first year. No country can be up to 18 supply centers in two years. But to have 18 supply centers in 3 years, Russia only needs to gain 10 centers in two more years after doubling to 8 the first year. Child's play. The other countries need to get 12 centers in two more years after doubling to 6 the first year. This can be done fairly easily as it only calls for the 6 units to gain a new center every fall without even considering the 3 new units built in 1902. So 3 years is the shortest possible game under the new rulebook, excluding draws.

Where the victory criteria is simply a majority of units on the board, matters are more complicated. Russia again hastheedge. But while Russia can gain 4 centers in 1901, only 3 of them can be enemy build centers (assuming RF Sevastopol to Armenia, RA Moscow to Sevastopol, RA Warsaw to Galicia (Silesia), and TF Ankara to Black Sea, then RF Armenia to Ankara, TF Black Sea(C)RA Sevastopol to Constantinople, and RA Galicia to Budapest or Vienna (Munich or Berlin)), as RF St. Petersburg (sc) can only reach Sweden in 1901. By Winter 1902, Russia is up to 12 and has easily taken a minimum of 4 more build centers to have a majority of units.

Any other country cannot do better than 9 units to 10 by 1902, assuming that 3 build centers are taken in 1901 and 6 more in 1902. Getting two more build centers in 1903 is easy. A run-through with England gave the following result: 1900: 3-19,1901: 5-19,1902: 8-13, 1903: 11-5 (in terms of units). So without much effort, any country can possibly be in majority by 1903.

It can be seen that failure to build could cut the margin below 9 units to 10 in 1902. England can take Brest, Germany can take Paris and Warsaw, Austria can take Venice and Rome, and Turkey, Sevastopol. If the other three fail to build, England or Turkey are the worst off. Add failure to retreat and the analysis becomes hopeless. On a run-through, I got England 8-8 by 1902 without retreating any units off the board. It is my guess that any country can make it by 1902, but it will take more space and time than I have to prove it.

Draws compl icate the picture. A six-way alliance against Austria or France can win in 1901. All other countries have at least one center (Russia has two) that no other country can reach in 1901. So any other combination of alliances cannot win before 1902. However, a 7-way alliance can win by Winter 1900. (Personally, I'm surprised that no one has tried it yet.) So a "Fool's Mate' leads to a foolish result.

18 Units	1900	1901	1902	1903	1904	1905
Russia	4	8	12	16	20	-
Any other	3	6	9	12	15	18

18 Centers	1900	1901	1902	1903	1904	1905
Russia	4	8	16	32	-	-
Any other	3	6	12	24	-	-

Maximum Units*	1900	1901	1902	1903	1904	1905
Russia	4	8	12	-	-	-
Rest	18	15	10	-	-	-
Any Other	3	6	9	12	-	-
Rest	19	16	10	-	-	-
* Excluding missed builds and retreats off the board.