The announcement of the Lyran Commonwealth's and Federated Suns' attack upon the other three Successor States came as a shock to those assembled at the wedding and throughout the Successor States. Almost immediately politicians, armchair warriors, and psychics all began making their predictions about the duration of the war. Is a quick victory in sight, or is the Fourth Successor War destined to grind on to the inconclusive horrors of attrition and exhaustion which have characterized interstellar wars in the past? Politicians, armchair warriors, and psychics are all notoriously unreliable in the accuracy of such predictions. BattleTechnology, however, sent its reporters off to find' people who could logically be expected to know enough to puzzle out the war, its causes and its consequences. Here are their answers. As might be expected, they reveal a wide variety of opinions. First Prince Hanse Davion Hanse Davion, First Prince of the Federated Suns"... victory I do promise you..." "Citizens of the Federated Suns, I wish you well. I speak to you now because of a very serious situation that has forced me to undertake action during what I had hoped to be a time of relaxation. Instead of being able to enjoy a honeymoon, as many of you have, I am forced to deal with our treacherous neighbor, the Capellan Confederation. I have directed the forces assembled for Operation: Galahad 3028 to strike at targets in the Tikonov and Sarna Commonalities... "...War is not an easy thing to declare and pursue, but we have no choice. As we saw with the extended raid launched in 3022 by McCarron's Armored Cavalry--a mercenary unit in the pay of Maximilian Liao--the Capellan nation will not allow us to live in peace. Our intelligence operatives have uncovered plans by House Liao to produce two never-before-seen 'Mech designs, both created specifically to deal with our troops. We also have information that suggests Liao wishes to close the St. Ives' finger down around the worlds between Teng and Mitchel... "...I had hoped, fervently and solemnly, that our Galahad exercises would dissuade Liaoist aggression, but they have not. If anything, Liao has seen them as challenges that he must accept or face humiliation. His blind pursuit of the ludicrous dream of being the First Lord of a new Star League has made Maximilian Liao very dangerous, and I have taken steps to end his reign of terror... "...I cannot promise you a quick victory, not in the face of the hosts of evil and madness which surround us, which confront us at every turn. But victory I do promise you, victory as certain and as proud and as final as the heroism of the hosts of those who carry our banner forward against the foe. Victory may not ome this month, or this year... but victory, I assure you, will come..." Excerpts from the text of a prepared statement broadcast throughout the Federated Suns, August 21. Commandant Linsey Trevellis Commandant Linsey Trevellils: "...the worlds they take will stay ours." "Overall, of course, the 'Mech regiments of the Federated Suns outnumber Liao regiments only about 1.5 to 1, but this statistic is misleading. Many analysts forget that Federated Suns' Regimental Combat Teams consist of 1 'Mech regiment, 3 armor regiments, 5 infantry regiments, 1 artillery regiments and 2 aerofighter wings. Because the Galahad exercises have proven the feasibility of this combined arms approach to warfare, House Liao will be in for some difficulty, even under the best of circumstances. "I'm not running down the competence of the Capellan MechWarriors because, propaganda aside, they really are quite good. Unfortunately for them, House Liao has so many worlds to protect that their regiments are splintered and scattered in battalion strength throughout the Confederation. This means any battalion defending a planet will be outnumbered 3:1 in 'Mechs alone. Even if the local militia holds off the infantry, artillery and armor, 3:1 odds are very bad for the force on the short end. "When will our boys be home? They'll fight until we can't supply them anymore, but I have the feeling the worlds they take will stay ours. In other words, once we clear the defenders off a planet, our boys will be home." Commandant Linsey Trevellis, head of the Sakhara Academy and former Colonel in the AFFS. Comments on the forces arrayed against each other, from an interview with BattleTechnology Staff Reporter, Josey Scott, on Sakhara, August 22. Lyran Historian Thelos Auburn Thellos Auburn, court historian: "... it will remain hot for the next six months." "As a historian, I would have to say that, in the short run anyway, things will go well for both the Lyran and Federal offensives. That they caught their enemies napping cannot be denied and, historically, the sort of momentum generated works well for the aggressor. Mind you, this is not a physical momentum as much as it is an emotional momentum. Victory demoralizes the enemy and convinces the attacker he is immortal. That the Prince has established a moral high ground upon which to base his attack is a good thing for political support in his home realm. Who can protest a preemptive strike against a dangerous enemy? "Within the Commonwealth, on the other hand, the Archon's strike against House Kurita has been met with mixed reactions. Many people welcome the assault, especially since the Silver Eagle affair has been exposed as an attempt to kidnap Melissa Arthur Steiner. In a brilliant move, the initial Lyran offensive has driven Draconian forces back from the border of the Isle of Skye. That should forestall any move that would add fuel to Duke Aldo Lestrade's independence movement, but a strike in his territory by the Dragon could cause political trouble for the Archon. Lestrade has already criticized the Archon, accusing her of selling out to Hanse Davion, but Melissa's presence at her mother's side, as opposed to being with her husband, has defused that bomb. "How long the war? I should think it will remain hot for the next six months. After that, when things bog down, it will probably collapse into the smoldering abyss that swallowed the end of the Third Succession War." Thelos Auburn, court historian of the Lyran Commonwealth, to a BattleTechnology reporter, August 22. Duke Aldo Lestrade His Grace, Duke Aldo Lestrade: "The Archon has clearly lost her mind." "The Archon has clearly lost her mind. She's already sacrificed her daughter's future to appease Hanse Davion's rapacious appetite for possessions, and now she has the LCAF attack the Draconis Combine to keep the Dragon off Hanse Davion's back. We all know, despite the propaganda generated to justify the gross expenditures of the Galahad debacles, that massed assaults do not and cannot work. Certainly the AFFS will have some initial successes, but House Liao will rally and drive the invaders out. No one has the resources to sustain the sort of invasion it would take to wipe out the Capellan Confederation. "...Am I concerned about a Draconis Combine counterstrike? Were I the Coordinator, I know I would seriously consider teaching the Archon a lesson. The Combine will-withdraw, extending our lines, then their forces will fall on our troops and destroy them. "We must face facts! This is going to be a long and bloody war..." Duke Aldo Lestrade, speaking from his palace on Summer during an interview with BattleTechnology, August 25. Commandant Tai-Sho Jiro Iesu Commandant Tai-Sho Jiro Iesu: "...victory will be swift and complete!" "...You hear word of the war on both borders and you wonder where you will win your glory. Do not wonder, know! Your years here have instilled in you the knowledge and the skills needed for you to honor the Coordinator with your service. You are travelers who have reached one pinnacle only to find there is a yet higher mountain further on. This must be your new goal. "We know that the Lyrans have made serious advances on the border, but whom did they face? The linchpin on that border was the 11th Legion of Vega! The Commonwealth claims a great victory, but we know the Legion was a collection of dishonorable buffoons who only dreamed of being True Warriors. Indeed, when Theodore Kurita--a prized graduate of this Academy--rallied the other two Vegan Regiments, the Lyrans slowed their advance. "On the other border, our troops face mercenaries. Wolf's Dragoons are, after all, utterly without honor. They will be destroyed, crushed in our first mighty onslaught! "Your decision, then is not one of how you will win glory, but how you will perpetuate a system of honor against forces that would destroy it. This is the struggle you face. Live or die, when you fight in this struggle, glory will be yours if you maintain your honor and serve the Dragon with each and every breath in your body. "The glory is yours! Live with honor, and victory will be swift, clean, and complete!" Tai-Sho Jiro lesu, Commandant of the Sun Zhang Academy. Excerpts quoted from his address to the newly graduated class of cadets, August 26. Precentor Villius Tejh Precentor Villius Tejh: "...the war will be over by Christmas." "War is a tragedy, an unthinkable waste of lives and of technology now irreplaceable. Yet, in a larger sense, perhaps even here, in the rack and ruin of total war, there may be found some comfort, some brightening of the darkness within the Night which consumes us. An army, any army, depends on technology to support it, to keep it going. "You will find that the opening stages of this new war will proceed at a furious rate. There will be invasions, bombardments, words of vast movements of men and materiel from world to world. And yet, during these first few months of horror, DropShips will break down, JumpShips malfunction. Those without a full and proper appreciation of the glorious intricacies of Mechanism will find that their blindness has led to that curse of modern life: malfunction! "The pace of war will slow, then, as there are fewer ships to move the men and machines, fewer machines to fight the wars, fewer men to move the machines. Our vaunted technology is failing us, you see, for we have ignored the spirit which moves it. "The war will not last long. It will be impossible to keep things going, don't you see? What is that feast the Christians celebrate... Christmas? Yes, I should say the war will be over by Christmas..." His Most Exalted Ambassador, Villius Tejh, ComStar Precentor of Sian Station. From a press audience granted at Sian Station, August 20. Chancellor Maximilian Liao Maximilian Liao, Chancellor of the Capellan Confederation: "Then we will go fox hunting..." "So, this treacherous dog, Hanse Davion, releases his forces to rape, pillage and murder on our worlds! He considers this justifiable because, he says, we planned to attack him. Nothing could have been further from the truth. When have I ever been a force for anything but unity in the Successor States? "Be heartened, my people, for these stories of Davion victories are just that, stories. They are tales with which to scare children or fools because they are not true. Davion has made some aborted stabs at our holdings, but his forces are too confused to mount an organized attack. Hanse Davion's grand strategy only works in his mind, and not at all during those few lucid moments he has. We have seen it all before, especially in the Galtor campaign. How soon will it be until the Prince loses interest and allows his MechWarriors to flounder and die because of poor supplies and poorer planning? "When will this war be over? The first half of it is stillborn... dead as we stand here speaking. As my forces throw the invaders back, Davion's troops will scurry back to their homes like frightened rabbits, unable to stand eye to eye with the fierce and indomitable will of the Capellan predator. Then will come our turn. Then we will go fox hunting and put an end to this madness once and for all!" Excerpted from an address to reporters at the Chancellor's summer palace on Sian, August 23. Back to BattleTechnology 6 Table of Contents Back to BattleTechnology List of Issues Back to MagWeb Magazine List © Copyright 1988 by Pacific Rim Publishing. This article appears in MagWeb (Magazine Web) on the Internet World Wide Web. Other military history articles and gaming articles are available at http://www.magweb.com