The Middle East We seem to be marching steadily toward armed conflict in the Middle East. Iraq's leader has been in power for many years, not through popularity, but through shrewdness and cunning and he is not accustomed to being defied or to losing. Iraq has wisely chosen not to commit any overt military action that would give the US and its Arab and European allies an excuse to launch an attack. It seems Saddam has correctly chosen the one strategy that could defeat the US efforts there. That is to fortify Kuwait and hold out without fighting, for years if necessary, until America loses its patience and goes home, or the Arabs unite to find their own solution and ask us to withdraw, a request we would have to honor if we wished to have any kind of future influence there. That Iraq can hold out in the face of the world embargo, I am certain, especially now that the Iranians have struck a "food for oil" deal with them. Denying arms, food, medicine and supplies, while hurting initially, usually only serves to force a country to become self-sufficient (witness South Africa). We however, by all appearances, are moving to preemptively defeat the hold-out strategy by preparing to initiate a lightning war. By September, we had moved in enough troops to defend Saudi Arabia, our stated purpose initially, yet we continue to massively reinforce our position, including sending a second heavy armor division (M-1 tanks) over there. Look around in your own and neighboring states and you will note that unusually high numbers of reserve medical, engineer and support units have been activated, either to go to operation Desert Shield or to fill in for active duty units sent that way. Things like this are only done when we get serious. Moving an aircraft carrier into the Persian Gulf is not a defensive action. Neither is sending stealth- capable aircraft to the region. Mark my words, war is inevitable unless Iraq's ironfisted dictator, the Lion of Baghdad, suddenly feels like being humiliated and cowardly withdraws his army back home--not likely. If he will not provide an excuse for us to attack, I believe we will provide our own and the most likely scenario is to allow the exiled Kuwaiti army and air force to strike first, starting the war with the pretext of liberating their own country. We will just roll in right behind, beside and over them and continue on into Iraq to bring down Saddam. Kuwait was overrun within hours, but a lot of their military forces did withdraw into Saudi Arabia. Over twenty of their Skyhawks and almost all their Mirage F-1s escaped, as did a number of their armored units. This force has been augmented by thousands of Kuwaiti men who have signed on to form an army of liberation. Kuwait is even known to be hiring European mercenaries. Air power, of course, will play the pinnacle role. It is our equalizer to the masses of fanatic Moslems we will be facing if indeed we invade Iraq. Already, we have mustered an international air arm in Saudi Arabia that is double the size of Iraq's air force. American planners have learned many lessons since Vietnam and any attack into Kuwait and/or Iraq will be preceded by a massive and unrestricted campaign to win air superiority. I have no doubt that every radar, SAM system and Iraqi air field is already targeted for massive strikes by aircraft and cruise missiles. Once their air defenses are brought down, and their aircraft/airfields are destroyed, the ground forces will be pounded unmercifully into submission. Iraqi troops have eight years of defensive trench warfare experience gained against the Iranians. That they are prepared to repel a ground attack is certain. We are not unimaginative Iranians, however. Imagine, if you will, the following scenario for a short war. Short War Scenario It is 4:00 AM, suddenly intensive jamming of Iraqi air defense radar networks and communications facilities commences, followed by dozens of phoned-in reports from border outposts of aircraft penetrating at low altitudes. The alarms sound as Iraqi SAM units quickly come on-line in response to those reports. Almost immediately, a number of SAM and radar sights are knocked out by LGBs and cluster weapons dropped by stealth aircraft already prepositioned to hit them. Simultaneously, numerous airfields are overflown by Tomahawk cruise missiles dispensing submunitions to mine the runways and/or destroy aircraft caught in the open. Those defense radars not initially hit soon find themselves forced into games of cat and mouse as Shrikes, standard ARMs, and HARMs come homing in on them. More defense units are destroyed as they are smothered by cluster bombs laid down by Strike Eagles, Intruders, F-111s, and Tornadoes that come screaming in over them. Confusion is everywhere. As the sun begins to rise, more waves of aircraft arrive. Hornets, Jaguars, Mirages, Harriers and many others. Those Iraqi aircraft that get airborne are quickly and decisively shot down by F-15s and F-14s, or are chased off to the north and effectively removed from the FEBA. At certain strategic locations the Iraqi trenches, designed to withstand artillery fire, are suddenly smothered in hundreds of powerful explosions, the result of B-52 carpet bombing attacks. Stunned and demoralized, the defenses at those points are breached shortly thereafter by fast-moving US armor units. Light infantry, Arab forces and US Marines follow in to mop-up. By the end of the first day, allied forces have reached Kuwait City, surrounding it. On the following day, pressure is maintained on the greatly reduced Iraqi air defenses as more aircraft are destroyed and their airfields neutralized. More and more allied air power is shifted to attacking retreating and repositioned Iraqi ground troops. The desert offers little cover and attrition is horrendous. It is obvious that Iraq's southern army will cease to be an effective fighting force within another day. Helpless in the face of air power, a lot of the Iraqi forces will fall back, taking refuge within Kuwait City itself, which will not be bombed for obvious reasons. Rather that initiate a Stalingrad-like battle against them, Allied forces will opt to starve them out later and continue the main assault into Iraq capturing its southern oil fields. Hopefully, before things get too out of control, Saddam will be deposed and a negotiated settlement rapidly concluded. Could a war actually turn out this way? Who knows? What I just conjectured is the same kind of scenario, related to newsmen, that got the Air Force Chief of Staff suddenly and swiftly fired by Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney. Obviously, something involving air power and its massive application is in someone's mind. Since any hope of avoiding a real war seems to be dwindling, I just hope whatever we do ends the conflict swiftly with a minimum of loss to our countrymen. I also hope that our victory is so complete, overwhelming, and decisive that any other country in the world contemplating similar acts of aggression will be deterred from doing so. Next issue will include an analysis of the Iraqi Air Force, or what remains of it as the case may be. Thanks for your attention. (This material was written by JD before the Gulf War broke out on 16 January 1991. You should be able to judge its accuracy in a few short weeks. Back to Table of Contents -- Air Power # 11 Back to Air Power List of Issues Back to MagWeb Magazine List © Copyright 1990 by J.D. Webster This article appears in MagWeb.com (Magazine Web) on the Internet World Wide Web. 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