[The author has created two charts containing the percentages involved in DBA combat, taking into account the factors, plusses, and minuses.]
How to Read the Chart
The last column shows the percentage chances of winning or losing the roll based on how great the difference is between the two die rolls. For example, if one has a +2 advantage over his opponent, he has a 72% chance of winning the die roll and either doubling his opponent or forcing a recoil. His opponent has a 17% chance of winning the die roll. The remainder is the chance of tieing.
| Factor Difference | Win | Loss | Tie |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 42% | 42% | 16% |
| +1 | 60% | 28% | 12% |
| +2 | 72% | 17% | 11% |
| +3 | 83% | 8% | 9% |
| +4 | 90% | 3% | 7% |
| +5 | 98% | 0% | 2% |
On the next table, the x y columns are the opposing elements, with the x being the higher of the two. Use the final factors involved for overlaps, support, etc. The other columns are the percentage chances of achieving the results of tieing, beating, or doubling the opponent. Factoring is done in each table based on the lowest number used. Factoring ceases when there is no chance of the lower number winning, or factors go beyond what can be reasonably expected. The lower the factors, the easier itis to double; the higher, the harder.
Example: A Light Horse vs. a Knight. The LH is +2, the Kn is +4. Go to the chart with the number 2 heading. Under that chart, read the row that begins 4-2. The first column (2x) shows the chance of the high number doubling the low (in this case, 25%). The second column (x) is the chance of the high number beating the low (47%), thus causing a recoil. The center column (=) is the chance of being equal (11%). The next (y) is the chance of the low number winning (17%), and then (2y) its doubling (0%). The results show that the Kn will double the LH25% of the time, force it to recoil 47% of the time, tie and lock in combat 11%, be recoiled (and thus destroyed) 17%, and be doubled 0%.
You can see how overlaps can change percentages dramatically. Elements that destroy a superior opponent on recoil (i.e. Warband vs. Blade, LH vs. Kn, and Psiloi vs. Elephant) should seek to gain an overlap at all times.
Note that some percentages do not add up to 100% due to rounding.
| X-Y | 2x | x | = | y | 2y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 25% | 17% | 17% | 17% | 25% |
| 1-0 | 33% | 25% | 14% | 17% | 11% |
| 2-0 | 42% | 31% | 11% | 14% | 3% |
| 3-0 | 50% | 33% | 8% | 8% | 0% |
| 4-0 | 58% | 33% | 6% | 3% | 0% |
| 5-0 | 67% | 31% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
| 1-1 | 17% | 25% | 17% | 25% | 17% |
| 2-1 | 25% | 33% | 14% | 22% | 6% |
| 3-1 | 33% | 39% | 11% | 17% | 0% |
| 4-1 | 42% | 42% | 8% | 8% | 0% |
| 5-1 | 50% | 42% | 6% | 3% | 0% |
| 6-1 | 58% | 39% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
| 2-2 | 11% | 31% | 17% | 31% | 11% |
| 3-2 | 17% | 42% | 14% | 25% | 3% |
| 4-2 | 25% | 47% | 11% | 17% | 0% |
| 5-2 | 33% | 50% | 8% | 8% | 0% |
| 6-2 | 42% | 50% | 6% | 3% | 0% |
| 7-2 | 50% | 47% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
| 3-3 | 6% | 36% | 17% | 36% | 6% |
| 4-3 | 11% | 47% | 14% | 28% | 0% |
| 5-3 | 17% | 56% | 11% | 17% | 0% |
| 6-3 | 25% | 58% | 8% | 8% | 0% |
| 7-3 | 33% | 58% | 6% | 3% | 0% |
| 8-3 | 42% | 56% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 3% | 39% | 17% | 39% | 3% |
| 5-4 | 6% | 53% | 14% | 28% | 0% |
| 6-4 | 11% | 61% | 11% | 17% | 0% |
| 7-4 | 17% | 67% | 8% | 8% | 0% |
| 8-4 | 25% | 67% | 6% | 3% | 0% |
| 5-5 | 0% | 42% | 17% | 42% | 0% |
| 6-5 | 3% | 56% | 14% | 28% | 0% |
| 7-5 | 6% | 67% | 11% | 17% | 0% |
| 8-5 | 11% | 72% | 8% | 8% | 0% |
| 9-5 | 17% | 75% | 6% | 3% | 0% |
| 6-6 | 0% | 42% | 17% | 42% | 0% |
| 7-6 | 0% | 58% | 14% | 28% | 0% |
| 8-6 | 3% | 68% | 11% | 17% | 0% |
| 7-7 | 0% | 42% | 17% | 42% | 0% |
| 8-7 | 0% | 58% | 14% | 28% | 0% |
| 9-7 | 0% | 72% | 11% | 17% | 0% |
| 0-(-1) | 42% | 17% | 14% | 11% | 17% |
| 1-(-1) | 50% | 22% | 11% | 11% | 6% |
| 2-(-1) | 58% | 25% | 8% | 8% | 0% |
| 3-(-1) | 67% | 25% | 6% | 3% | 0% |
| 4-(-1) | 75% | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% |
| 5-(-1) | 83% | 17% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Things to Avoid
- Mtd avoid deep Pike, massed bows, bad going
- Ps avoid Ax, horse in good going (especially Kn)
- Sch, Kn avoid El, Bw
- Bd, Pk, Sp avoid Sch, deep Wb
- Ax avoid Kn in good going
- Wb avoid Sch, Kn, El and bad going
- LH avoid El
- Bw avoid Arty, Ps, Ax
- Bw avoid close combat (especially foot)
- All avoid deep Pk
- All but Bd avoid massed Bw
Basically, anyone that can double you and has an advantage should be avoided. Anyone that destroys you on recoil and has an advantage should be avoided like the plague. Anyone that destroys you on recoil but is at a disadvantage, you should make certain doesn't get one. The reverse, in all cases, is obviously true.
Highest Possible Factoring
Deep Pike general defending a camp uphil vs. mtd: +11
Lowest Possible Factoring
LH surrounded in bad going: -3
The name of the game is maximize your odds of winnning while reducing your opponent's odds of winnning.
May the dice gods be with you! (Use the force, Luke!)